The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a seven-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Connor McDavid ($9,600 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) vs. Vegas Golden Knights
It’s hard to believe that a guy with 60 points in 41 games in underachieving, but that’s the case with Connor McDavid.
McDavid is under-producing relative to his production metrics, posting an expected goals-for percentage of 68.9%, with an expected total of 78; however, his actual totals are 66.4% and 75, respectively. The reigning Hart Trophy winner has just three points over his past four outings, despite peppering the opposition with 14 shots over that span. The Edmonton Oilers continue to deploy their superstar under favorable conditions, and his output won’t remain suppressed for long.
We’re expecting McDavid to get back on track at home, where he’s skating around with an expected goals-for rating that is nearly 70.0%. That’s bad news for Robin Lehner and the Vegas Golden Knights.
Top Value
Vincent Trocheck ($5,300 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) vs. Ottawa Senators
Both the Carolina Hurricanes and Ottawa Senators will be skating on the second night of a back-to-back on Tuesday. The difference is the Canes come into tonight’s matchup with much better underlying metrics. That should mean big things for Vincent Trocheck and the Hurricanes’ offense.
Carolina has outplayed their opponents in five straight games, and Trocheck remains a valuable offensive producer. The 28-year-old centers the Canes’ second line and skates on their top powerplay unit, and he has recorded points in four of his past six games. A closer look at Trocheck’s metrics supports ongoing production, as he ranks fifth on the Hurricanes’ in expected goals-for percentage, despite starting just 51.3% of his shifts in the attacking zone.
The Sens are due for a letdown, getting outplayed in five of their past seven, collecting four wins over that stretch. Trocheck comes at a discounted price and projects as a top option against a team headed towards regression.
Wing
Top Play
Kirill Kaprizov ($8,400 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) vs. Winnipeg Jets
In his second season in the league, Kirill Kaprizov continues to outdo himself. Kaprizov has been one of the Minnesota Wild’s best skaters this season, and he’ll have a chance to shine against the Winnipeg Jets.
The Jets have been a mess in their own end, giving up at least 10 quality chances at five-on-five in five straight games, with a running average of 13.0 per game over that stretch. Look for Kaprizov to take advantage of that porous defense, as he’s riding a 12-game point streak into Tuesday night’s contest. The former fifth-round pick has totaled 21 points, 45 shots, and 285.4 fantasy points over that 12-game span.
As a team, the Wild’s offense is clicking right now, and as the team leader in scoring and high-danger chances, Kaprizov will continue to factor into the scoring.
Top Value
Taylor Hall ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
The Boston Bruins’ top line continues to shoulder most of the team’s offensive burden, but Taylor Hall asserts himself as an analytically dominant player.
Hall is third on the team in expected goals-for percentage, thanks to his fourth-ranked Corsi and fifth-ranked on-ice scoring chance ratings. The former Hart Trophy winner comes at a discounted salary but has recorded shots in seven straight games, recording three or more shots in four of those outings. It helps that the Bruins are hosting the Pittsburgh Penguins on Tuesday, as 17 of Hall’s 29 points have come in his friendly confines.
We’ve highlighted Hall as a progression candidate, as his on-ice PDO remains below 1.000, with his expected goals-for rating coming in above actual.
Defense
Top Play
John Carlson ($6,300 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
The Washington Capitals have a talented forwards corps, with eight of their top nine players posting an expected goals-for percentage above 57.5%. The lone defenseman amongst that group is John Carlson.
Carlson is second only to Alex Ovechkin in on-ice scoring and high-danger chances for the Caps, coming in at 526 and 202, respectively. However, Carlson’s success also rates well outside of the Capitals. The US-born rearguard ranks eighth in the league in scoring among defensemen and averages the seventh-most powerplay time in the league.
The Capitals defensive anchor has been in a bit of a cold snap, recording just two points over his previous nine games. We’re projecting Carlson as a top option as he gets back on track against a Columbus Blue Jackets team that has allowed 20 goals over their last four games.
Top Value
Tyson Barrie ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. Vegas Golden Knights
It’s been a long time since the Oilers had an abundance of talented defensemen. Here we are halfway through the 2021-22 season, and Edmonton has five defensemen with at least 12 points. Looking at their situation through the DFS lens reveals a pair of undervalued defensemen with a high fantasy ceiling.
We’re keyed in on Tyson Barrie as the blueliner worth making a play on against the Golden Knights. Barrie has played in just one game since January 20 but has attempted at least three shots in four straight games. No d-man on the Oilers has a better expected goals-for rating than Barrie, and he sits behind only McDavid and Jesse Puljujarvi in scoring-chance rating.
Barrie’s salary doesn’t come close to representing his ceiling. The veteran defenseman projects as an elite fantasy producer but comes at a fraction of the cost. That value isn’t worth passing up.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Thatcher Demko ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
We’ve been waiting a long time for this to happen, and the moment has finally come. Thatcher Demko‘s salary accurately reflects his fantasy ceiling on Tuesday’s slate.
No Vancouver Canuck has benefitted more from the coaching change than Demko. The second-year tendy is 9-5-0 under Bruce Boudreau and is stopping 93.0% of shots. It helps that Demko is facing an Arizona Coyotes squad that has scored just six goals over their last four games. Nevertheless, Demko will be up to the challenge at home, where he’s posted a 93.2% save percentage on the season but has just seven wins in 13 games to his credit. It should all come together for Demko and the Canucks on Tuesday night.
Jeremy Swayman ($7,700 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Both DFS platforms have taken a hard stance against Jeremy Swayman against the Pittsburgh Penguins, but he projects as a top option on Tuesday night.
Swayman has alternated between above and below-average performances over his past six starts, but we’re expecting more consistency from the young goalie moving forward. The Bruins play with a lot of defensive structure, limiting their opponents’ chances. Boston has limited their opponents to eight or fewer high-danger in five of seven and 20 or fewer scoring chances in six of seven. The Bruins shelter their goalies, and those performances should start paying off.
Regression was inevitable after the hot start that Swayman got off to at the end of last season. Still, we’re expecting more impactful performances from Swayman moving forward. That starts tonight against the Pens.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
The Oilers and Canucks dominate our lineup builder, with each team featuring several combinations worth considering on Tuesday’s slate. We’re highlighting one of our most highly rated projections as the Oilers host the Golden Knights.
We opened our article outlining Connor McDavid as the top option at center, and for the reasons noted above, we are including him in our stack. McDavid and newly signed winger Evander Kane are starting to build chemistry together, and the results are having an immediate impact on the Oilers. Kane has recorded points in two of three games as an Oiler, delivering three shots on target in each contest. Several defensemen could be included in an Edmonton stack, but we’ve included Evan Bouchard in our stack. Bouchard has taken on more responsibility with the Oilers and has recorded points in three of his last four games. Mike Smith makes his triumphant return to the crease on Tuesday and is worth including in any Edmonton stack.
Betting market confidence isn’t high on the Oilers, but the total has moved north in this game. After opening at 6, the total has been bought up to 6.5, which indicates that the betting market is expecting a high-scoring game.
