The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a 10-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Auston Matthews ($8,700 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
There are a few top options available on tonight’s slate, but we like what Auston Matthews has been bringing to the table in his recent outings.
The 24-year-old has recorded points in six straight games, tallying eight goals and two assists over that span. Matthews has been a firing range, attempting three or more shots in 11 of his past 12 games and averaging 4.9 shots per game. That has translated to some gaudy fantasy numbers, with Matthews going north of 30 fantasy points in three of his past six outings, averaging 28.5 fantasy points per game.
Matthew may not be the highest-priced center available, but he projects with one of the best fantasy ceilings on the slate.
Top Value
Ryan O’Reilly ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) vs. Florida Panthers
We saw how effective Ryan O’Reilly could be last time out against the Florida Panthers. He gets a chance to duplicate that performance, this time with the benefits of home-ice advantage.
The St. Louis Blues captain recorded two assists and three shots against the Panthers on Saturday, translating to 20.8 fantasy points. O’Reilly is a 200-foot fantasy threat, recording blocks in his own end while chipping in on the Blues powerplay and centering their top line. O’Reilly has strong relative metrics, posting an expected goals-for percentage of 50.1% despite getting just 45.2% of his starts in the attacking zone.
The Panthers give up a ton of chances, which the Blues can exploit now that they have the benefit of last change. O’Reilly is a value play on tonight’s slates.
Wing
Top Play
Patrick Kane ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) vs. New York Rangers
The Chicago Blackhawks host the New York Rangers on Tuesday night, who will be without primary goalie Igor Shesterkin. The Rangers placed Shesterkin on the injured reserve, meaning Alexandar Georgiev and his 87.6% save percentage is the probable starter.
That means that Patrick Kane and the Hawks could improve off their recent strong performances. The Hawks have outplayed their opponents in three of their past five games, and Kane is due for a bounce-back performance. Kane was held without a point or shot for the first time this season in his last outing, recording zero fantasy points. The former Hart Trophy winner remains an integral part of the Hawks’ lineup, recording the third-best expected goals-for rating and leading their top powerplay unit.
Kane will have more room to operate at home and gets to fire away on a backup goalie. That makes him our top play on the wing.
Top Value
Lucas Raymond ($5,200 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) vs. Nashville Predators
Lucas Raymond is slowly making a name for himself with the Detroit Red Wings.
The 19-year-old leads the Wings in scoring, recording 10 goals and 22 points through the first 25 games of his career. Raymond has the underlying metrics to support sustained output, as he ranks near the top of most of his team’s advanced categories. He has the best Corsi, scoring chance, and high-danger chance ratings on the team, resulting in the second-best expected goals-for percentage on the Red Wings.
Detroit has been good on home ice this season, and they can put Raymond out under ideal circumstances with the benefit of last change. We like Raymond’s fantasy value against the Nashville Predators.
Defense
Top Play
Seth Jones ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) vs. New York Rangers
The Hawks rely on Seth Jones for everything, and the 27-year-old will have a chance to shine against the Rangers on Tuesday.
Jones plays more than just about everyone in the league, ranking third in time on ice. He’s rewarded the Hawks with some impressive metrics, setting the team lead in shots, scoring, and high-danger chances. Jones spends nearly four minutes a game on the powerplay and has responded by recording the most powerplay assists and points on the team.
We like this spot for the Hawks against the Rangers with Georgiev in net, and Jones could easily reach his fantasy ceiling.
Top Value
Torey Krug ($5,100 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel) vs. Florida Panthers
The Blues have been dominant at home this season, going 7-3-1, and they get an ideal matchup against the Panthers, who are 3-3-3 on the road.
That sets Torey Krug up to get back on track after an extended downturn in his production. The veteran defenseman has been held pointless in seven straight games, recording just one assist over his previous nine outings. No Blues player spends more time on the powerplay than Krug, helping him establish the fifth-best expected goals-for rating across all strengths.
St. Louis continues to set Krug up for success, giving him 70.9% of his starts in the offensive zone. He comes at a discounted rate tonight and should surpass his Median Projections.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Andrei Vasilevskiy ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) vs. Montreal Canadiens
Andrei Vasilevskiy has been one of the best goalies in the league this season, and he has the benefit of playing against the offensively-challenged Montreal Canadiens on Tuesday night.
The Habs have attempted 29 scoring and six quality chances at five-on-five over their past two games, which is awful. On average, Montreal puts 21.7 scoring and 8.3 high-danger chances on net per game. That should afford Vasilevskiy the opportunity to improve on his recent hot streak, in which he is stopping 95.5% of shots.
Vasilevskiy projects as a top option on most nights he starts, but that is even more true against the Habs tonight.
Top Value
Marc-Andre Fleury ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) vs. New York Rangers
The Rangers are trending down offensively over their recent sample, giving Marc-Andre Fleury an opportunity to improve on his recent strong play.
Fleury has posted an above-average save percentage in seven of his past eight starts. Cumulatively, he’s posted a 94.4% save percentage over that span, winning six of the eight games. The reigning Vezina winner is positioned well to continue to strong play against a Rangers team that has attempted eight or fewer high-danger chances in three of their past five and 20 or fewer scoring chances in four of five.
The Hawks have been much better on home ice this season, and Fleury should continue his strong play.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
There are several highly rated teams in our projections. The Edmonton Oilers, Maple Leafs, and Carolina Hurricanes are solid options, but as noted above, the Hawks stack is our notable play tonight.
As is the case with most teams, there is a drop-off in a team’s chances to compete when a backup goalie is in net. That is the case tonight as Georgiev is tasked with limiting a Hawks offense that is good on home ice. Chicago has 12 or more quality chances in three of their past five at home, outplaying their opponents in four of five. That hasn’t translated to increased output yet, as the Hawks have been limited to nine goals over that five-game span.
Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane will be leading the offensive charge. The forwards spend time together on the team’s top line and powerplay unit and correlate well together. Seth Jones is the only defenseman worth including in Hawks stacks as he leads the team in scoring and continues to figure prominently across all strengths. Marc-Andre Fleury is also expected to reach his fantasy ceiling against a subpar Rangers attack.
