The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday has a three-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Steven Stamkos ($8,000 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) vs. Montreal Canadiens
The last time the Tampa Bay Lightning played the Montreal Canadiens, they put 17 quality chances on targets. We’re expecting more of the same on Tuesday night, which should lead to a good showing from Steven Stamkos.
Stammer is on a hell of a run, recording at least a point in 12 of his past 13 games, recording 17 points total over that span. The veteran forward is responsible for 78 shots, 72 scoring chances, and 25 high-danger opportunities this season, playing on the. The fantasy appeal doesn’t end there, though, as Stamkos also plays on the penalty kill, where he fills shooting lanes and gains fantasy points with block shots.
Stamkos is a center on Draftkings but a winger at FanDuel, but he’s a top play at forward an whichever position you roster him on.
Top Value
William Karlsson ($5,000 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Kings
When the NHL entered their hiatus early, they also paused the Vegas Golden Knights’ recent hot steak, a span in which they won eight of their past 10. They’ll be hoping to pick up where they left off when they travel to take on the Los Angeles Kings.
The Knights attempted 10 or more quality chances in five of their past seven games, and William Karlsson continues to figure prominently in their offensive system. Karlsson drives the offensive bus on-ice, ranking fifth on the team in shots-for percentage and seventh on the team in Corsi rating. Part of the appeal for Karlsson is that he is a progression candidate, as he has an on-ice PDO of 0.944 and is below his expected values analytically.
Karlsson has shots in 11 straight games but has recorded only two goals over that span. We’re expecting Karlsson to get closer to his fantasy ceiling, if not surpass it, on Tuesday night.
Wing
Top Play
Max Pacioretty ($9,000 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Kings
Arguably, there hasn’t been a better forward in the NHL over the past month than Max Pacioretty, and that’s reflected in the Golden Knights’ outcomes over that span. Patches will be looking to pick up where he left off when the Knights take to the ice in LA.
Pacioretty has some of the best relative metrics in the league, putting up a 60.6% Corsi rating, 61.1% shots-for, and 60.5% scoring chance percentages, culminating in a team-best 61.6% expected goals-for percentage. Practically, that has translated to a hugely successful run in which he has 18 points over his previous 13 games, including six multi-point games.
The Knights’ offense is powered by Patches, and he projects well on tonight’s slate, making him a top play on the wing.
Top Value
Clayton Keller ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) vs. San Jose Sharks
Clayton Keller has been the Arizona Coyotes’ best forward this season, and he’s a value play on Tuesday’s slate.
The Coyotes start Keller in the offensive zone 58.1% of the time, facilitating his team-best 22 points through his first 29 games of the season. Analytically, Keller rates well, with relative possession, shots, and scoring chance metrics all above 50.0%. Arizona deploys Keller on their top line and powerplay unit, setting him up to maximize output on a nightly basis.
Keller’s solid start to the season should continue against a San Jose Sharks team that has allowed 10 or more high-danger chances in four of their previous five games.
Defense
Top Play
Brent Burns ($6,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
On the opposite side of the ice, you’ll find Brent Burns, who remains an offensive threat on the Sharks’ blue line. He rates as one of the top options against the Yotes on Tuesday night.
Burns has been on the ice for the most shots and scoring chances on the Sharks this season, ranking second in high-danger opportunities. The former Norris Trophy winner has also been one of San Jose’s best defenders, ranking second on the team in blocked shots while playing under any circumstance. All of which contributes to Burns’s fantasy projections, ranking him as a top play against one of the worst teams in the league.
San Jose has attempted 11 or more quality chances in eight of their past nine games. Burns adds value to the Sharks’ offense on Tuesday night.
Top Value
Ryan McDonagh ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Montreal Canadiens
The spotlight normally shines on Victor Hedman on the Lightning’s blue line, but Ryan McDonagh is a player worth rostering over his coming games.
The two-time Stanley Cup winner has been a valuable fantasy contributor on both ends of the ice but remains below expected values in terms of output. The metric that best exemplifies McDonagh’s fantasy appeal is his high-danger chances for rating. The 32-year-old has a 48.5% rating, despite starting just 25.5% of his shifts in the attacking zone. McDonagh is not only able to limit opponents’ chances in his own end but travel 200 feet and create chances in the offensive zone.
McDonagh’s actual goals-for rating is below expected output, making him a progression candidate over the upcoming stretch.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
James Reimer ($8,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
James Reimer is having a resurgent year in San Jose and won’t face an onslaught from the Coyotes on Tuesday night.
Arizona has attempted the second-fewest shots this season to go along with the fewest scoring and high-danger chances. They won’t have much luck getting things going against Reimer, who has been brilliant so far this season. The 33-year-old has a 93.6% save percentage this season, stopping 96.1% of shots over his past four starts.
Reimer has quietly asserted himself as a top option between the pipes this season and projects as one of the best available on tonight’s slate.
Jonathan Quick ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) vs. Vegas Golden Knights
It’s tough to find value on a short slate such as this one, but Jonathan Quick is a low-cost option that has upside against the Knights.
Quick is having a bounce-back year with the Kings, going 8-6-4 while stopping 93.0% of shots. The two-time Jennings trophy winner has 10.3 goals saved above average and is above career norms in nearly every advanced save percentage category. Quick has been at his best with extra rest, posting a 93.6% save percentage with more than three days of rest this season.
The Kings have been good at home this season, and Quick could steal a victory for them on Tuesday night.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
The Sharks project as one of the best options on tonight’s slate, with several combinations rating highly in our projections. We’re highlighting our favorite combo as tonight’s notable stack.
We’ve covered the back end in our top and value play sections, outlining the rationale for including Brent Burns and James Reimer in your lineups tonight. Both players are included in tonight’s stack, also featuring Logan Couture and Timo Meier. From an advanced metrics perspective, no player has been better on the Sharks than Meier this season. The winger has the best expected goals-for rating across all strengths, posting a 60.1% rating this season. Meier has translated that to on-ice success, leading the team with 29 points and 17 assists. Couture is right behind Meier on the team’s scoring list, scoring 25 points and 16 assists. Their success correlates well together, as the pair skates on the Sharks’ top line and powerplay unit.
Betting market confidence is high on the Sharks as they enter tonight’s contest in the -210 range. That confidence is reflected in our projections, rating them as one of the best stacks available against Arizona.
