The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has a 13-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Connor McDavid ($8,900 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
There are several top options available on tonight’s 13-game slate, and Connor McDavid projects as one of the best.
McDavid has put forward some tepid efforts over his recent stretch, accumulating just three points and 50.6 fantasy points over his past four outings. The diminished output isn’t from lack of effort. The reigning Hart Trophy winner has put 15 shots on target while playing more than 22 minutes in three of the four games. The Oilers continue to start McDavid in the offensive zone 68.4% of the time, leading to a team-best 67.2% expected goals-for percentage.
It’s not every day that McDavid has the fifth-highest salary on the DFS slates, but that’s the position we find him in tonight. Even if the market has lost faith in McDavid, we haven’t. He’s the top option at center.
Top Value
Tyler Seguin ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Blues
The Dallas Stars have won nine of their past 13 games to climb back above .500. That impressive run can continue as several players remain progression candidates over the Stars coming games. Among those is Tyler Seguin, who continues to underachieve relative to his advanced metrics.
Seguin ranks second in ice time among Stars forwards at five-on-five. The veteran center is often deployed in the defensive zone, starting 51.8% of his shifts in the defensive zone. Seguin has put forward some impressive metrics despite those limitations, out-chacing his opponents in high-danger chances 64-58. However, Seguin is on the wrong side of production metrics putting up an actual goals-for percentage of 34.8%, well below his expected rating of 44.5%.
The Stars center has the worst five-on-five PDO on the team at .963 and is a natural progression candidate over his coming games. Seguin is undervalued tonight, making him a value play up the middle.
Wing
Top Play
Kyle Connor ($7,400 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
Kyle Connor is in a good spot to continue his solid production on Tuesday night when the Winnipeg Jets host the Buffalo Sabres.
There are a few factors at play tonight. First, the Jets start Connor in the offensive zone 70.1% of the time, which should result in plenty of scoring opportunities for the league’s ninth-best point-getter. The Sabres have given up 11 or more high-danger chances in six of their past seven games, and have given up double-digit quality chances in 22 of their past 25 games. Consider also that Connor has put up 10 points over his past four outings, including three multi-point performances.
Based on our projections, Connor’s improved output should continue against one of the worst defensive teams in the league.
Top Value
Carter Verhaeghe ($4,300 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel) vs. Ottawa Senators
The Florida Panthers are dealing with injuries to several key players. That gives Carter Verhaeghe a more significant role on the team against one of the worst teams in the league.
Verhaeghe has recorded six points over his past five games, coming in three multi-point efforts. The 26-year-old plays under any circumstance, elevating his fantasy appeal as he collects fantasy points in his own end while also spending time on the team’s second powerplay unit. Verhaeghe has been on the ice for the seventh-most scoring chances and the sixth-most high-danger opportunities on the Panthers and is individually responsible for 65 and 22, respectively.
The Ottawa Senators continue to have defensive lapses in their own end, giving up 12 or more high-danger chances in six of their past eight, setting the table for Verhaeghe to exceed his median projections yet again.
Defense
Top Play
Darnell Nurse ($6,900 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Oilers defenseman Darnell Nurse missed just over two weeks with a broken finger but has added more to his plate since coming back from injury, making him a top play on Tuesday’s slate.
The veteran rearguard has played more than 28 minutes in three of his four games since returning, contributing 11.2 fantasy points or more in all four games. Nurse’s relative metrics are above 50.0% across the board; he out-chances, out-shoots, and out-possesses his opponents when he’s on the ice, resulting in a 55.8% expected goals-for percentage across all strengths while playing on the powerplay play and penalty kill.
Nurse has recorded one goal, one assist, 18 shots, and six blocks over his past four games. We’re expecting him to continue that trend on home ice against the Leafs.
Top Value
Josh Morrissey ($3,800 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
It seems that every night the Jets play, there’s an undervalued defenseman who projects as an elite option. Tonight, that’s Josh Morrissey.
Morrissey started the season hot, recording three points through his first four games. Output has been intermittent since then, with the 26-year-old failing to record points in consecutive games and putting up six points over his past 22 games, including just three in 14. That doesn’t diminish Morrissey’s production metrics, though, as he’s been on the ice for the second-most scoring chances and most high-danger chances among all Jets’ players.
We’ve identified Morrissey as a value play, as he continues to put up elite production metrics but carries a low-end salary on both DFS platforms.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Tristan Jarry ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) vs. Montreal Canadiens
It should be a nice and easy night for Tristan Jarry against the Montreal Canadiens. The Habs have been one of the worst offensive teams in the league this season, and that’s been even more evident over their recent sample.
Montreal has attempted more than seven high-danger chances across all strengths just once over their past four games, failing to record more than 10. In total, the Habs are averaging 5.8 quality chances, 21.0 scoring opportunities, and 23.8 shots over their five-game sample. Jarry has been superb over his recent starts, stopping 93.5% of shots or more in eight of his past nine. The former second-round pick is on an absolute heater, stopping 96.0% of shots over that span and recording three shutouts.
Jarry will be insulated from a relentless attack with the Pittsburgh Penguins having a home-ice advantage against one of the worst teams in the NHL.
Top Value
Thatcher Demko ($8,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
We hate to do it again, but we’re going back to the Thatcher Demko well as a value play on tonight’s slate, particularly at FanDuel, where he has a $7,400 salary.
Demko has won four straight since Bruce Boudreau took over as head coach, posting a 96.2% save percentage. That stretch has elevated Demko’s season save percentage to just 0.5% above his career average and could be a sign of things to come. Demko has the advantage of playing at home tonight, where he’s stopping 93.2% of shots this season and has collected seven of his 12 wins.
The Columbus Blue Jackets have been one of the lowest-scoring teams this season, recording more than two goals just twice over their past 10 games. Demko can extend their misery on Tuesday night.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
On a slate this size, it’s tough to narrow down which stack presents the most value. Thankfully, we’ve got our lineup builder at our disposal, highlighting the Winnipeg Jets as one of the best available options.
The Jets have scored three or more goals in four of their past five, going north of 14 high-danger chances in three of four games and attempting 29 or more scoring chances in four of five. As noted, Kyle Connor has been an integral part of their offensive success and is a worthy inclusion on most Jets stacks. Mark Schiefele skates on the Jets’ top line with Connor, and the two also skate on the team’s top powerplay unit and is the center we’ve included in our Jets stack. Josh Morrissey is an inexpensive defensive option and should see his fantasy value rise over the coming games. As is typically the case, Connor Hellebuyck is the projected starter and remains a top option between the pipes.
Betting confidence is high on the Jets, as they’re hovering around the -255 range for tonight’s contest. The implied probability of their success is also reflected in our projections, rating them as a top stack.
