The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Center
Top Play
Aleksander Barkov ($6,400 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) vs. Washington Capitals
Given the recent injury issues and struggles of the Washington Capitals, I don’t hate targeting Aleksander Barkov tonight as the elite center to build around. Barkov enters this game ranked second in Ceiling Projection in the FantasyLabs Models (on both sites) and takes on a Capitals team who has now allowed three or more goals against in four of their last five games.
Barkov has had another excellent start to his season in 2021-2022, with 10 points in his first nine games, and ranks out as a strong play on DraftKings, where he’s third in Projected Plus/Minus (his actual points projection vs. his salary-based projection). It all just speaks to how insanely under-valued he is on that site and how good an option he is there.
Washington rates out with the 10th-worst penalty-kill in the league, so targeting Barkov and the rest of the Panthers’ PP1 makes a lot of sense on tonight’s slate. They all rate out as very strong plays in our models.
Top Value
Yanni Gourde ($4,200 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
The Kraken forwards will present some good value opportunities this year as we have players like Yanni Gourde, who used to be strictly a role player in Tampa, now playing in solid top-six positions. Gourde enters this game trending well in the FantasyLabs Pro Trends, where he’s in the top 10% of shots on goal and Corsi Rating for the last month.
So far this season, he’s landed five points in six games, and he and the Kraken rate out as decent favorites tonight against the Sabres. Seattle has a 3.1 implied puck total here, so targeting their cheap top-six for some value is something we should be interested in. He rates out as the top Kraken center in the Projected Points Model on both sites but has a 91% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
Wing
Top Play
Vladimir Tarasenko ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) vs. San Jose Sharks
Vladimir Tarasenko deserves some love right now as he’s turned around his career in a big way at the start of this season. After suffering through multiple injury-plagued years with little to no production, Tarasenko enters this game against the Sharks with 11 points in eight games. He’s now ranked in the top 1% at his position in the Pro Trends on FantasyLabs and takes on a Sharks team here who is likely due for a little regression defensively after a hottish start to the year.
Tarasenko is climbing the ratings on both sites right now, but he’s clearly the better option on DraftKings, where his Bargain Rating is an absurd 99%. Paying up for the Blues’ powerplay in this spot again has benefits on both sites. Tarasenko won’t be near as heavy owned on FanDuel and the Blues’ powerplay paid off for us nicely last night with a couple of correlated goals from that unit. Keep targeting Tarasenko while his price is depressed.
Top Value
Jeff Skinner (4,800 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) vs. Seattle Kraken
Skinner has started his season well and currently ranks in the top 5% at his position for shots on goal over the last month. He’s a player we should keep an eye on as he’s gone through some insanely hot stretches for DFS purposes over his career. The Kraken rate out as a solid opponent so far as they’ve allowed over 3.3 goals per game, and Skinner remains ultra-affordable on both sites for DFS purposes.
A Sabres first-line stack with Skinner and one or both of his linemates also isn’t a bad idea today. They rank out well in the Stacking Tool on FantasyLabs, with center Tage Thompson also looking like a low-owned, mid-range play you could potentially look to pair with Skinner. The Sabres forwards make for good value options here.
Defense
Top Play
Brent Burns ($6,900 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Blues
As far as defensemen on this slate go, Burns has to stick out as the player to build around for multiple reasons. He’s far too cheap on FanDuel today, where he has the third-best Ceiling Projection of the slate and a 99% Bargain Rating. He also got a great matchup. St. Louis enters this game on the tail end of a back-to-back, and they may finally be showing some chinks in the armor after a hot start. The Blues have lost two of their last three games now (including last night against the Kings) and are allowing the third-most shots against per game in the league.
Burns is having a bit of a renaissance year as he comes in averaging 4.0 shots on goal per game so far this season and ranks in the top 5% in blocked shots + shots on goal per game at his position over the last month. Positive regression should be a thing for Burns soon as he’s now taken 35 shots on net in 2021-2022 and yet to score a goal (he’s a career 6.6% shooter, which is great for a defenseman).
Paying up for the do-it-all defenseman makes sense here.
Top Value
Jeff Petry ($4,100 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) vs. New York Islanders
We don’t need to get into the nitty-gritty details of this play too much. Petry hasn’t had a great season thus far (no one of the Canadiens has), but his price for DFS purposes has dropped to a level where it’s not respecting his usage. Petry is still averaging over 25 minutes a game here and seeing first-line power-play minutes for the Habs.
Petry’s also in the top 10% for his position in the Pro Trends on FantasyLabs for Time on Ice over the last month and still has some solid CorsiFor and blocked shot + shots on goal metrics that suggest we’ll see some more offense and big fantasy games from him soon. He’s the better bargain on FanDuel but playing him with a cheap Montreal forward like Brendan Gallagher gives you exposure to cheap Montreal stack here which isn’t likely to be heavily owned at all in this spot.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Sergei Bobrovsky ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) vs. Washington Capitals
Bobrovsky has had a great start to the season. The veteran enters with a .944 save percentage and a perfect 6-0 record on the season. The Panthers enter this game off their first loss of the season but are taking on a Capitals team, who, as mentioned above, have struggled of late. Florida enters as solid -145 favorites, but there is a chance that both the odds and the field will be giving too much respect to the Capitals.
Washington is still suffering from injury issues with both TJ Oshie and Nik Backstrom out, so attacking them when they’re not at 100%, and potentially with inflated odds, makes a ton of sense. Bobrovsky rates out as the strongest play in net tonight on the slate in Ceiling Projection on both sites (he’s got a seven-point cushion in that stat on DraftKings), and his spike here should be respected against a Capitals team who likely isn’t as good as the current odds suggest for this game.
Top Value
Jake Allen ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) vs. New York Islanders
Allen is coming off a strong start where he stopped all 22 shots he faced against the Red Wings. The Canadiens’ top netminder has been put in a tough spot this year as the team isn’t generating offense, and he’s been called on to carry the load in net with Carey Price out. The Canadiens are underdogs, but they are at home and are just +120 on the moneyline.
Allen has solid ratings tonight and may be looking a little undervalued for DFS purposes, especially on DraftKings, where he costs barely over $7,000 to roster. The Islanders haven’t been very dominant to start the year either and enter this game with a losing record while allowing over 33 shots per game against on their own net.
It’s a solid spot for Allen to be deployed in GPPs, and he may be better than the current moneyline on this game indicates to pick up the win.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
Panthers PP1 – Aleksander Barkov – Jonathan Huberdeau – Aaron Ekblad
As mentioned above, the Panthers’ powerplay is in a good spot against a Capitals team who has struggled a bit on the penalty-kill. All three of these Panthers players are too cheap on DraftKings today, where they rate out well in the Stacking Tool on Fantasy Labs — when we use the Projected Points model to generate. This stack will cost under $23,000 total.
Ekblad has been having a career type of start, averaging over 3.0 shots on goal per game, and already has four power-play points on the season. He’s top 5% at his position in both shots on goal and time on ice in short-term form and smashes in the ratings on DraftKings today in the FantasyLabs Models, where he’s an overwhelming first at his position.
Start with Ekblad and Barkov here and add in the undervalued Huberdeau for a cost-effective Panthers stack that may get overlooked in a match-up that isn’t as poor as it appears.
