The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Center
Top Play
Conner McDavid ($9,500 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel) vs. Winnipeg Jets
Conner McDavid rates out as the best play in the Projected Points Model today. The Oilers have a 3.4 implied goal total which is one of the largest on the slate, and are at home against a Winnipeg team who they should be fired up to face after losing to them for the fifth-straight time going back to last year’s playoffs.
The Jets and the Oilers are two high-powered offensive teams, but Winnipeg still possesses a bottom-10 penalty-kill making this a better upside spot tonight than the one for Auston Matthews, who takes on a Rangers team with a hot goalie and better special teams. McDavid is actually cheaper than teammate Leon Draisaitl today on Fanduel as well, making him a solid bargain there.
Top Value
Tomas Hertl ($4,700 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) at St. Louis Blues
There is a big price discrepancy on Tomas Hertl between sites today. The center is under $5,000 on DraftKings, where he rates out as one of the best values on the board. Hertl is second in Player Ratings in the Projected Points Model on DraftKings today and is seventh in goals per game average (0.39) in long-term form at the position today.
With St. Louis starting to show signs of regression, Hertl looks like a screaming value play on DraftKings today, but the entire Sharks offense may also go overlooked on FanDuel. Hertl is averaging 3.0 shots on goal per game this year and takes on a Blues team who is allowing 31.5 shots per game and has seen their penalty-kill regress to the middle of the pack after a hot start. There’s too much to like here to consider fading.
Wing
Top Play
Jonathan Huberdeau ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
We have another huge price discrepancy here with Jonathan Huberdeau, who is well below $6,000 on DraftKings today. The Panthers winger is taking on a Devils team who ranks eighth-last in penalty-kill percentage and who has allowed nine goals against in their last two games. Huberdeau also ranks out third in Ceiling Projections in the Projected Points Model today, only adding to the idea that his long-term form suggests that he’s priced far under what he should be in spots like these.
Huberdeau is going to be popular, but we likely shouldn’t care too much as he’s a quality player, and even just one point (or a median output game) here will create a tough situation for the field to overcome. He’s likely to go under-owned on FanDuel as well, but rates out just as strong there too.
Top Value
Pavel Buchnevich ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel) vs. San Jose Sharks
Pavel Buchnevich comes into this game with six points scored over his last six games and averaging 3.2 shots on goals per game on the season. It’s been very consistent fantasy production from the former New York Ranger who has made the most of getting to play with a resurgent Vladimir Tarasenko. Buchnevich has a solid match-up here against the Sharks as well, who have a weaker goaltending duo and rate out at +1.7 in the Opponent Plus/Minus in the FantasyLabs Model today.
The Blues are tied with the Oilers for at 3.4 implied goals, so we should definitely want some exposure to their top-six. Buchnevich is one of the best values at his position today and certainly makes for a great option if you’re looking to stack some Blues forwards (or just want a really productive points to price target on DraftKings).
Defense
Top Play
Aaron Ekblad ($6,700 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
As mentioned above, the Devils come into this game having allowed nine goals in their last two games and still feature a bottom-10 penalty-kill. Aaron Ekblad has come back down to earth after a hot start, but he still rates out extremely well in this spot against a weaker defensive team. Ekblad anchors the Florida Panthers’ powerplay, which we can get easy exposure to upfront with the aforementioned Jonathan Huberdeau, whose salary will also let us fit in a higher-priced defenseman like Ekblad to go along with.
In the FantasyLabs Pro Trends, Ekblad still rates out in the top 10% of Corsi Ratings for defenseman over the last month and the top 5% of Time on Ice at his position as well. He’s under $7,000 on both sites, and the Panthers bring a 3.5 implied goal total into this slate, making him and the rest of the Panthers PP1 great targets.
Top Value
Rasmus Andersson ($4,300 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) at Buffalo Sabres
The Flames are -189 favorites tonight and have a solid 3.3 implied goal total, so we should certainly be interested in targeting their offensive skill players here. Rasmus Andersson enters this game averaging 2.68 blocked shots + shots on goal for the season, but his upside is increased in spots like this due to his power-play one exposure. The Sabres goalies have started to cool off after some hot starts, and they rank just middle of the pack now in terms of penalty-kill efficiency, making this a good time to target a powerplay specialist like Anderrson.
The Swede is goalless on the season but also is producing at a 0.5 ppg pace right now, which is above his averages from the last two years. A Flames powerplay stack won’t cost much and could be under-owned tonight, with Andersson being a great part of that potential roster build here.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Jacob Markstrom ($8,500 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel) at Buffalo Sabres
The Flames Jacob Markstrom bounced back to form in his last game with a great 41-save performance (on 43 shots faced). It was a little disappointing given the Flames still took the loss, but there’s a great chance that same fate doesn’t happen here against the Sabres. Calgary is the second-biggest favorite on the slate, so we should certainly be looking to target Markstrom too, who rates out as a great deal on FanDuel at under $8,000 — where he ranks third in overall Player Ratings in the Projected Points Model.
Markstrom might even be a headier play in big field GPPs on DraftKings today, though where the $8,500 salary will likely keep the field from going heavy on him. The Sabres are coming off a hard-fought division win two nights ago and have gone 2-6 in their last eight games. Markstrom’s a great all-around target today.
Top Value
Carter Hart ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Carter Hart and the Flyers are home underdogs today, but they only sit +110 currently in the odds, so they are getting some respect here, even against the defending champions. Hart has started the season strongly and now stopped 72 of the last 74 shots on goal he’s faced. It may feel a little bit like chasing points here, but the upside looks well worth chasing given the cheaper salaries on both sites.
Hart has a 67% Bargain Rating on FanDuel today, so if you’re looking to target some lower-owned upside with the Flyers goalie, you’re better off to do it there.
Notable Stacks
Penguins L1- Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust, Jake Guentzel
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
The Penguins are coming off a disappointing loss to the Sabres but head into Montreal today as strong favorites with an implied team total of 3.1. The Penguins could even be discounted a bit in these odds coming off a bad game, and they’re a team that rated out as the top stack in the Projected Points Model today (in the Fantasy Labs Stacking Tool).
The Canadiens are starting Cayden Primeau, who will be making just the second start of his career here too. Montreal has the fourth-worst penalty-kill making this a great upside spot for a winger like Jake Guentzel, who scored a powerplay goal in his last game. With Sidney Crosby back, Guentzel’s upside in spots like these goes through the roof (he’s already averaging 3.16 shots on goal this year), as it does for Bryan Rust, whose salary helps keep this line cheap.
Crosby has had two slow games since being back, and his higher price tag should keep ownership down here a bit. The Penguins’ first line is one you should be buying here, though, as they should get tons of work and have multi-goal upside in this spot against a weak defense/goalie tandem.
