The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Center
Top Play
Aleksander Barkov ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) at Pittsburgh Penguins
Considering what’s he’s accomplished this year and where he sits in the trends, it’s surprising to see Aleksander Barkov so low on DraftKings today. He’s only the sixth most-expensive player on the slate but rates out first in the Projected Points Player Model ratings on FantasyLabs, and by a significant margin. He’s got a 96% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he’ll likely be more popular but comes into this game ranked in the top-5% in blocked shots + shots on goal and in Corsi Rating at his position.
The Penguins may not rate out as a great opponent, but Florida has one of the biggest implied puck totals on this slate at 3.2 goals, and Barkov is second at his position in terms of pure fantasy points per game in long-term form. He’s a solid target tonight to start rosters.
Top Value
Pierre-Luc Dubois ($5,300 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) vs. San Jose Sharks
The Jets Pierre-Luc Dubois is in the midst of a great bounce-back year and has become a nice value as his salary hasn’t risen to meet his short-term production yet. Dubois rates out in the top-5% in the Fantasy Labs Pro Trends in Corsi Rating at his position and is averaging just under 4.0 blocked shots + shots on goal for the year.
The Jets have juggled their lines and paired Dubois with their best winger in Kyle Conner, so the opportunity for a big night is going to be there on a consistent basis, for Dubois is averaging just under a point-per-game clip this year. The Sharks have started the year well defensively but still, have a weaker goaltending duo, and the Jets players all look underpriced in this spot.
Starting out Winnipeg stacks with Dubois here looks savvy.
Wing
Top Play
Mikko Rantanen ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) vs. Vancouver
Mikko Rantanen returned to the lineup in the Avalanche’s last game and promptly landed six shots on net. The winger is going to be without his center now as Nathan MacKinnon is slated to miss some time, but that should also create more opportunity for Rantanen to get his shot off. He rates out first in the Ceiling Projections in the Projected Points Model on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight and is also first in terms of CorsiFor Rating at wing.
The tendency here might be to fade the Avalanche now that they’re down their best center, but Rantanen also has a great matchup as Vancouver rates out as one of the most positive opponents in the Opponent Plus/Minus category in the Model. Rantanen’s price may actually keep ownership down, but his ceiling is unmatched at wing today.
Top Value
Anders Lee ($7,100 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) @ New Jersey
We have a huge price discrepancy on Anders Lee today who is $2,500 cheaper on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings. Lee comes into this game averaging about 2.6 blocked shots + shots on goal per game but has picked up his play a lot in his last three games, averaging 3.75 shots in that span while also potting three goals.
Lee gives us good exposure to the Islanders’ top powerplay, which is in a great spot against New Jersey. The Devils rate out as the most positive opponent at wing today in the Opponent Plus/Minus Rating in the FantasyLabs Model and have the eighth-worst penalty-kill in the league. Lee is basically a free space on FanDuel and makes for a good low-owned tournament target on DraftKings.
Defense
Top Play
Thomas Chabot ($6,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Kings
As with many big slates, there’s plenty of high-end defensemen available in the midtier tonight. The Senators’ Thomas Chabot comes into this game averaging 4.7 blocked shots + shots on goal per game on the season and is also second on the slate in long-term CorsiFor Rating.
Chabot is a huge minutes eater and will be out there on the powerplay for the Senators who take on a team in the Kings who have enjoyed a lot of success this year despite a penalty-kill that ranks sixth-worst in the NHL. With his short-term fantasy production and form showing marked improvement over his long-term marks, Chabot makes for a great pay-down option on FanDuel, where he’s a far better bargain. Also, he’s a steady target to consider on DraftKings where he and the Senators’ powerplay could be stacked given the matchup against a weaker penalty-kill.
Top Value
Colton Parayko ($5,000 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs Nashville Predators
The theme of this slate is definitely players with big price discrepancies between the two major sites, and Colton Parayko is yet another player who has a far better Bargain Rating on FanDuel today vs. DraftKings, where he’s likely more of a pure tournament play. The St. Louis Blues defenseman has stepped up his production of late with the injury to Torey Krug and steps into this game, averaging a stout 4.1 shots on goal + blocked shots to begin the year.
As mentioned above, Pararyko rates out much better in the FantasyLabs Rating on FanDuel than on DraftKings, but when you factor in an increased opportunity that has seen him play over 26 minutes now in three of his last five games, he looks like a pretty solid bargain on both sites. The Predators are on a tail end of a back-to-back and rate out with just a mediocre penalty-kill. It’s a great spot to target a player here whose opportunity has increased and is currently producing above his long-term form.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Connor Hellebuyck ($8,600 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) vs. San Jose Sharks
The Winnipeg Jets enter this game as -184 favorites today in the betting odds, which is second biggest on this slate. We have Conner Hellebuyck available to us at over $8,000 on both sites but also with a Ceiling Projection that tops the FantasyLabs Model by a longshot. Hellebuyck has a monster +8.29 Projected Plus/Minus vs. his salary expected points here and also comes in second in long-term fantasy points per game on both sites.
The Jets played a close game in their last outing against a tough Blues squad and are getting close to full strength just in terms of health. Hellebuyck looks like the preferred pay-up option against a Sharks team who has played well to start the year but has more weaknesses than their opponent tonight.
Top Value
Matt Murray ($7,600 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel) vs. L.A. Kings
Once again, we have a player here who looks far too cheap on one site vs. another, and we should be looking to take advantage. Matt Murray is well under $7,000 on FanDuel, where he comes in second in the ratings in the Projected Points Model. Murray has been injured and not really played all that well this season, but we are also working with a small sample size. He did look far better in his last outing, which was a close 3-2 loss to Boston, where he posted a .917 save percentage.
Murray and the Senators are basically in a pick’em at home today vs. the L.A. Kings as they sit at -105 in the betting odds. He’s a great pay-down option on Fanduel where he could get a little chalky but, considering he’s projected for over 32 saves tonight, at $7,600, you can think about him for GPPs on DraftKings too.
Notable Stacks
COL – L1 — JT Compher — Mikko Rantanen — Gabriel Landeskog
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
With Nathan MacKinnon out, we have some value opportunity down the middle today on the Avalanche as JT Compher looks set to try and fill the huge void on the Avalanche’s top-line. Compher is averaging right around 3.2 blocked shots + shots on goal per game already this season, and his sub-$5,500 price tag on both sites will certainly add value to our Avalanche first-line stacks and help keep the overall cost down.
Outside of the great price, we’re getting the biggest appeal here is the matchup. Vancouver has allowed the 10th-most scoring chances against and have the third-worst penalty-kill in the league. This Avalanche trio may not even be that heavily owned on a massive slate and gives us great correlation as these three will be expected to be together at even strength and on the powerplay today.
