The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a seven-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Sebastian Aho ($7,500 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel) vs. Montreal Canadiens
The Hurricanes have a monster 4.1 implied goal total today and take on a Canadiens team who has allowed the fifth-most scoring chances against this year. The Canadiens’ woes go beyond that, obviously, as they also feature a bottom-five penalty-kill and some third-string netminders who are being peppered with great scoring chances against every night.
It should come as no surprise here then that Sebastian Aho rates out as the top play at center today than in the FantasyLabs Projected Points Model. While his price may keep his ownership levels reasonable (to some degree), he’ll definitely be a popular target. This isn’t really a spot where ownership should worry us too much, as the Canes and Aho have projections that set them far apart from the rest of the top plays today. Aho was also on absolute fire right before the break, landing multiple goals in three of his last five games, and has averaged 5.0 shots a game over his last four outings too.
He’s the highest-rated forward out there today and a player you should feel comfortable building around here.
Top Value
Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
The Islanders get a nice late Christmas present today as they take on the Sabres, a team who allowed over 40 shots on goal yesterday in a 4-3 loss to the Devils. The Islanders have been a black hole for DFS purposes this year, but center Jean-Gabriel Pageau has shown some signs of life recently and enters this game with four goals in his last 10 games. The increased production from Pageau is great, and we should expect more consistent point production from him in the future as he’s taken up a spot on the Islanders’ top line (as a winger).
Luckily for us, Pageau still is available as a center on both major sites and for cheap too. He ranks out as a top-five play on DraftKings today in the Player Ratings and is a great value target on both sites.
Wing
Top Play
Matthew Tkachuk ($6,400 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) @ Seattle Kraken
The Flames are a nice spot today as well and potentially could get overlooked with a couple of big teams from out east coming in with big implied goal totals. The Kraken have allowed the fourth-most goals against this year and have been regressing on the penalty-kill as well, which makes this a good time to target one of the Flames top-line wingers in Matthew Tkachuk. Tkachuk enters this game averaging 3.3 shots on net this year and is shooting with goal rate of over 12% in 2021.
The Flames winger rates out in the top 10 in both Player Ratings and Ceiling Projections in the FantasyLabs Model today and faces a Kraken team who simply doesn’t have the bodies to defend well against the league’s best lines. Look for the Calgary L1 to potentially pot multiple goals here and for Tkachuk to benefit.
Top Value
Carter Verhaeghe ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
The Panthers take on a Lightning squad that is currently being decimated by COVID. Tampa Bay will be starting minor leaguer, Max Legace here and will also be without some of their key defensemen as well. The Panthers have a 3.6 implied goal total tonight, making a cheaper top-line winger like Carter Verhaeghe look mighty attractive here.
Verhaeghe rates out very strongly on DraftKings today, where he’s got a 98% Bargain Rating. He’s set to play on the top line with Aleksander Barkov again, though, where he’s spent most of the season and has garnered eight points now in his last 10 games. This makes Verhaeghe a good stacking target as well on a slate where you should be looking to take advantage of a Tampa Bay team that isn’t anywhere near 100%.
Defense
Top Play
Brent Burns ($6,400 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers come into this game having allowed 34.6 shots on goal per game this year and the seventh-most scoring chances against. It’s a good time to deploy some of the big names from the Sharks today, as we can likely expect a big game or two from the Sharks’ best offensive players.
Brent Burns rates out first in Ceiling Projections in the FantasyLabs Points Projection Model today on DraftKings and comes in a close second on FanDuel as well. Despite that, he’s priced extremely cheap here on both sites and is a screaming bargain on FanDuel as well. Using Burns along with one of the Sharks elite wingers like Timo Meier here could create a good contrarian stack, but Burns is a great play on his own. He’s averaging 4.3 blocked shots + shots on goal over his last 10 games, and his point upside is heightened in a great match-up against the Flyers.
Top Value
Brett Pesce ($3,700 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) vs. Montreal Canadiens
The Hurricanes take on the Canadiens today, so that means all of their cheap players have heightened upside given the likelihood we see 4.0+ plus goals from the Hurricanes offense here. Carolina does carry a 4.1 implied goal total, and defenseman Brett Pesce rates out as a strong play in this spot at very cheap prices on both sites today as a result.
The Carolina defense core is getting healthier and Pesce has played solid minutes in both of his first two games back from injury. The defenseman ranks out in the top 15 in Ceiling Projections on both sites and is averaging a solid 3.8 blocked shots + shots on goal over his last 10 games (along with 0.5 points per game). Targeting the Canes offense every which way possible tonight is recommended, and Pesce makes for a good punt play on defense if you need to save cash.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Ilya Sorokin ($7.800 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
There’s a couple of big favorites on this slate but going with the discount we’re getting here on Ilya Sorokin seems like a prudent choice today. The Islanders are massive -215 favorites on the moneyline and take on a Sabres team who played last night as well. Despite the Islanders’ woes in 2021, Sorokin has shown some signs of life in recent starts and enters this game, having posted save percentages of .909 or better in each of his last four starts.
The Islanders goalie ranks second in Ceiling Projections today, and that certainly makes him a solid bargain at under $8,000 on DraftKings, where you can save significant cash by using him over the Carolina starter.
Top Value
Elvis Merzlikins ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) vs. Nashville Predators
There’s not a ton of really attractive cheap options on the board today in net, but the Columbus Blue Jackets are in a spot where they could potentially pick up a win against a depleted Predators squad. Elvis Merzlikins and the Jackets are +102 home underdogs in this spot against the Predators, who are missing some key players. That’s a pretty solid spot for a goalie who is under $7,500 on both sites.
Merzlikins has been inconsistent in 2021, but he’s going up against a Predators offense here that has stalled out a bit over their last few starts. Merzlikins ranks out with the second-best Player Rating in the FantasyLabs Projected Points Model today at goalie, too, making him a solid value target in GPPs and a good way to start making lineups.
Notable Stack
Flames L1 – Tkachuk – Gaudreau – Lindholm
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
The Calgary Flames top line ranks out as a top-five stack when we run the FantasyLabs Stacking Tool today and should be in a spot on this slate where they could go overlooked. This trio plays together in all situations and have a great correlation with each other, with Tkachuk and Gaudreau ranking out as the best duo to stack together from this game.
Both wingers rate out great today in the model, and the Kraken rate out with the fourth-worst goals-against average and a bottom-12 penalty-kill. The Flames have a solid 3.2 implied goal total here, and their L1 is a great stacking target today, especially in GPPs where the Flames offense could go overlooked as a whole.
