The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a 10-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Conner McDavid ($9,600 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
The Oilers have now lost six games in a row, and McDavid hasn’t scored in five straight. The Oilers’ dominant offense has gone through some harsh regression of late, but we shouldn’t expect the good old days of Edmonton potting four-plus goals a night to be gone forever either. The Blue Jackets present a good opponent to get back on track as they’ve got a below-average penalty-kill and allow the second-most shots on net per game.
McDavid is obviously slumping a bit, but a small cold stretch is to be expected, even from the best player in the world. The Oilers center has the best Ceiling Projection in the FantasyLabs Projected Player Model by a wide margin at center today and is nearly 6.0 points above his Colorado counterpart, Nathan MacKinnon. Pay up for Conner today.
Top Value
Bo Horvat ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) @ San Jose Sharks
The Canucks have been trending in the complete opposite direction as the Oilers of late, as the team has now won five straight under new head coach Bruce Boudreau. Bo Horvat has landed five points in his last five games, and the center has essentially taken over number one line duties for Vancouver, who relies on Horvat to play big minutes at even strength and on the powerplay.
The Canucks have a tougher than advertised matchup against a surprisingly good San Jose team, but the value on offer here is too enticing to pass up. Horvat ranks ninth in overall Ceiling Projection today at center and is in the top 10% in blocked shots + shots on goal at his position. He’s been far more aggressive with his shot under the new coach as well, landing five-plus in three of his last five games. Go with Horvat for value today at center.
Wing
Top Play
Max Pacioretty ($8,800 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel) @ New Jersey Devils
There has been no player hotter in the NHL lately than Max Pacioretty. Call it positive regression, positive goal luck, or just an outright heater, but there’s no denying that if you’ve been fading Pacioretty of late in DFS, you likely haven’t been winning. The Vegas winger has 10 goals now in his last seven games and has made the entire Golden Knights top line into a near must roster on every slate (they have 17 points in their last two games as a unit).
Pacioretty ranks out second in Ceiling Projections today at wing on FantasyLabs and is also second in long-term form with 3.88 shots on goal per game. If you are looking for better value, it should be noted that the Bruins David Pastrnak is only $7,500 on FanDuel today for some reason and is the only player ahead of Pacioretty in shots on goal per game. Still, the matchup against a Devils team who has allowed 5.0 goals against, per game, over their last 10 starts is too good to ignore here, making Pacioretty the top play at wing.
Top Value
Kevin Fiala ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
Getting a piece of the Wild’s offense today seems like a near must, given the fact the Sabres are on tap. We have a couple of studs to pay up for at wing in other spots, so Kirill Kaprizov may not be the best use of our money. With Kevin Fiala, though, we can get a piece of a winger who still averages 3.2 shots on goal per game (seventh-best at his position over the last 12 months) and is ranked fifth in the Ceiling Projections today (for DraftKings).
Fiala plays more of a supporting role these days for the Wild, but he’s still averaged well over 15 minutes a game this year and is shooting 6% under his career mark of 10.4% on the year. He’s well overdue for a breakout in the goal department, and the Sabres — who allow the fourth-most shots against and have the fourth-worst goals-against average — make for a great opponent here for just such a breakout to occur.
Defense
Top Play
Alex Pietrangelo ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) @ New Jersey Devils
The Golden Knights have started to look a lot more dominant of late, and that has also seemingly been reflected in the recent fantasy production of Alex Pietrangelo as well. The defenseman comes into this game averaging 1.0 points per game, and 5.1 blocked shots + shots on goals, per game, over his last 10-starts and leads this slate in that category by a wide margin in both short and long-term form.
The Knights’ powerplay has also started to show some signs of life of late, and Pietrangelo has started to produce more there as well, with a couple of PP points in his last three games. Despite all this, and the fact the Knights have a weaker Devils defense to attack here, Pietrangelo is available as just the sixth-most expensive defenseman on DraftKings today, where he’s a pretty massive bargain. Don’t stop paying up for the Golden Knight studs, especially in a plus matchup like this.
Top Value
Mikhail Sergachev ($4,100 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) vs. Ottawa Senators
The Tampa Bay Lightning players are all in good spots today against a Senators team who has been scoring more of late but still ranks last in goals against, per game and features a bottom-10 penalty-kill. With Tampa’s chances of landing four-plus goals, looking at a value option like Mikhail Sergachev becomes a good idea. Sergachev has been quieter of late but is still averaging 0.5 points on the season and has seen his ice-time increase this year.
From a Projections standpoint, he rates out as one of the top options in the FantasyLabs Model for defensemen under $5,000 on both sites today and should be in a good spot here to grab a point. The Lightning got embarrassed two games ago in a 4-0 loss to Ottawa so expect their offense to be out here for some revenge. Using the skilled Sergachev for value today makes a lot of sense.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Frederik Andersen ($7,700 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Red Wings
The Hurricanes are playing mega short-handed today (may only have 16 skaters), but they are also taking on a Red Wings team who has been pretty terrible defensively of late. Detroit has allowed 4.4 goals per game over their last five starts, and if they hadn’t played the struggling Islanders twice in that span, those numbers likely would have been worse. Carolina has a deep team and remain as -177 home favorites here on the moneyline, so deploying Frederick Anderson, who is well under $8,000 on both sites today makes sense.
Anderson has posted a .960 over his last two starts combined and could be in a spot where he’ll face a little more rubber than usual, given the lineup issues for Carolina. The Detroit offense has struggled to score all year, though (ninth-worst in the league), and Anderson’s improved play should have us bullish on using him here.
Top Value
Ilya Sorokin ($7,100 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) vs. New York Islanders
Speaking of the Islanders, the projections today don’t hate the idea of looking to Ilya Sorokin as a potential GPP play. The Bruins have a ton of players in the COVID protocols (Bergeron, Marchand, Swayman, to name a few), and Sorokin has played better of late, stopping 67 of the last 71 shots he’s faced.
He ranks out as the far better play on DraftKings, but with the COVID issues and his improved play of late, using him on FanDuel at $8,000 shouldn’t be ruled out either, as you’re likely to get massively low ownership against a team down two of its best goal scorers. Playing an Islanders goalie has a ton of risks, but Sorokin does look like a nice GPP pivot here.
Notable Stack
Oilers L1 – Conner McDavid – Jesse Puljujarvi – Warren Foegele
Golden Knights L1 – Chandler Stephenson – Max Pacioretty – Mark Stone
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
As I’ve mentioned above numerous times, there’s no shame in eating the Golden Knights chalk today. Their top line is still very underpriced on DraftKings and producing at a ridiculous rate. On a 10-game slate, it is also likely they don’t get as chalky as they should be.
One interesting line to consider pairing them with is the Oilers’ top unit. The Oilers rank out as the top stack in the Projected Points Model today on FantasyLabs, and the Blue Jackets have allowed the sixth-most quality scoring chances against at even strength this year. Injury issues have forced the Oilers to move Warren Foegele up to the top line and pairing him with McDavid, and Puljujarvi really keeps your average salary levels reasonable.
