The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday has a five-game main slate starting at 6:00 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Patrice Bergeron ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) vs. Calgary Flames
After having five straight days off, the Boston Bruins are playing on consecutive nights. They get a date with the Calgary Flames after knocking off the Philadelphia Flyers last night.
The Bruins have attempted 11 or more high-danger chances in three straight games, and Patrice Bergeron continues to be deployed prominently across all strengths. The veteran center has the third-best expected goals-for rating on the team, generating 147 scoring and 46 high-danger chances across all strengths. The Bruins start Bergeron in the offensive zone 61.5% of the time, which is ideal against a Flames team that has the third-worst expected goals-against rating on the road this season.
According to the FantasyLabs projections, Bergeron is one of the highest-rated centers available tonight and is our top play up the middle.
Top Value
Bo Horvat ($5,200 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
The Vancouver Canucks hope they’ve turned a corner after winning their first game in nearly two weeks. Tonight’s circumstances favor the Canucks once again as they host the Chicago Blackhawks on the second night of a back-to-back.
The Nucks got off the schneid last time out, knocking off the Winnipeg Jets. Bo Horvat hasn’t scored in six straight games, but he continues to be an analytics darling for the Canucks. Horvat has a 55.9% expected goals-for rating, fourth-best on the Canucks, and is individually responsible for 57 scoring and 28 high-danger chances this season. Horvat hasn’t lived up to his metrics, ranking below expected output thanks to his below-average shooting percentage.
Horvat has a diminished salary but should be expected to have a good outing against the Hawks tonight. He’s a value play at center.
Wing
Top Play
David Pastrnak ($8,700 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) vs. Calgary Flames
Bergeron has been good this season, but David Pastrnak has been better. Pastrnak ranks above Bergeron in a few notable categories and is our top play on the wing.
Pastrnak has a better goals rating than Bergeron, ranking second-best on the team, and has a leg up in production metrics. The 25-year-old leads the team in high-danger chances for percentage and has been on the ice for more scoring and high-danger chances than any other Bruins forward. That is leading to increased output, as Pastrnak has nine points over his past five games.
The Bruins’ first line is a dynamic point-producing unit, and they’ll have plenty of chances tonight against the Flames.
Top Value
Clayton Keller ($3,700 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Kings
It’s not very often an Arizona Coyote cracks our DFS breakdown, but Clayton Keller is the exception on Sunday’s slate.
The Coyotes winger is one of two forwards who have an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0%. Keller’s production metrics are above 50.0% across the board, and he gets a chance to produce on the Yotes’ top line and powerplay unit. Arizona starts Keller in the offensive zone 66.1% of the time, but they have a decreased shooting percentage with Keller on the ice.
Keller is a valuable contributor, and he should improve off his recent two-game point streak. Keller has one of the most affordable salaries on the slate and should easily surpass its implied value.
Defense
Top Play
Adam Fox ($7,500 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
There is an important distinction to make when it comes to Adam Fox on tonight’s DFS slates. FanDuel has the New York Rangers versus Buffalo Sabres on the main slate, whereas DraftKings has this game on the early slate. Nevertheless, Fox’s value can’t be overlooked.
Fox has been held pointless in his past two games but remains one of the Rangers’ best players from an analytics perspective. The reigning Norris Trophy winner has been on the ice for more scoring and high-danger chances than any other player. 12 of Fox’s 16 points have come at even strength, with the d-man recording one short-handed tally and three powerplay assists. In total, he ranks second in the league in scoring among defensemen and shouldn’t see his pointless streak go any longer.
The Rangers host the lackluster Sabres on Sunday night, putting Fox in a good position for a breakout performance.
Top Value
Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($4,100 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Oliver Ekman-Larsson snapped out of his extended goalless drought last time out, scoring his first goal since the first game of the season. OEL should see increased output, as he remains below expected values.
Ekman-Larsson has the second-best expected goals-for percentage at five-on-five on the Canucks. He is one of only three Canucks players to have a Corsi rating, shots, scoring, and high-danger percentage all above 50.0%. What’s most impressive is that Ekman-Larsson has accomplished this while getting only 43.2% of his starts in the offensive zone.
The Canucks are effective with OEL on the ice, and we’re expecting to see his name pop up on the score sheet with more frequency.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Jeremy Swayman ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) vs. Calgary Flames
We are highlighting Jeremy Swayman as the top option in net as the Bruins host the road-weary Flames.
The Flames play their seventh straight road game tonight, playing on the second night of a back-to-back. It’s been a successful trip for the Flames thus far, which is contraindicated in their metrics. Calgary has been out-played in four of six games this roadie and have decreased production metrics on the road. That sets Swayman up to improve on his four-game winning streak, in which he’s stopping 93.0% of shots.
The Bruins can shelter Swayman on home ice, and he’s set up for another big performance against the Flames.
Top Value
Philipp Grubauer ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) vs. Washington Capitals
The Seattle Kraken aren’t off to a great start. The NHL’s newest franchise has just four wins in 17 games, but their metrics suggest that more wins are on the horizon. That starts with improved play from Philipp Grubauer between the pipes.
Grubauer is well off career norms to start the season. The German netminder is below average in even-strength, scoring chance, and high-danger save percentages, resulting in the worst save percentage of his career. Grubauer is well-positioned Sunday night as the Kraken host the Washington Capitals on the second night of a back-to-back. The Caps have overachieved relative to production metrics over their recent sample and could come out flat against Seattle.
Grubauer has one of the most affordable salaries on the DFS slate and should surpass median projections against a tired Caps team.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
It’s a busy night in the NHL, leaving bettors with a number of stacks to go with on tonight’s slate. We’ve highlighted Bruins throughout our breakdown and elected to go with them as our notable stack for tonight’s slate.
Pastrnak and Bergeron are a logical combination to include upfront. Both players rank in the league’s elite with their advanced metrics and have recent point surges. They set up on the Bruins’ top line and first powerplay unit, which will give them plenty of scoring opportunities against a Flames team due for regression. Charlie McAvoy is the defenseman to include in Bruins stacks. McAvoy has 12 points in 14 games this season and is consistently featured next to the Bruins’ top producers. The last line of defense is Swayman, and for reasons noted above, is the top option to include in net.
The betting market reflects our confidence in the Bruins as they enter tonight’s contest as -175 favorites against Calgary.
