The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday has a five-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Mikko Rantanen ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) vs. Florida Panthers
The Colorado Avalanche have wielded their home-ice advantage unmercifully this season, and that should help them get past the Florida Panthers on Sunday night.
The Avs have scored at least five goals on home ice in six straight contests and average 4.9 goals per game in their friendly confines. That should help Mikko Rantanen continue his recent hot streak, in which he’s accumulated five points and 66.6 fantasy points along the way. The Finnish forward has posted a team-best 62.7% expected goals-for rating at five-on-five and 67.5% across all strengths.
Take note — Rantanen is only a center on DraftKings slates, and you’ll have to roster him as a winger at FanDuel.
Top Value
Ryan O’Reilly ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) vs. Anaheim Ducks
The St. Louis Blues and Anaheim Ducks will both be playing on the second night of a back-to-back on Sunday night; however, the Blues have a couple of distinct advantages, giving them an edge.
First, the Ducks are on the road, playing their third game in four nights, and travel could impact their readiness tonight. Second, and more importantly, goaltending is going to be an issue. John Gibson was forced to leave in last night’s 1-0 loss after sustaining a lower-body injury, meaning Anthony Stollarz is the projected starter after playing half of the game yesterday. That gives Ryan O’Reilly a platform for a huge outing. O’Reilly has accumulated a 51.9% expected goals-for rating while playing across all strengths and getting only 46.3% of his starts in the attacking zone.
O’Reilly’s fantasy presence is felt on both ends of the ice, and the veteran center is in a good spot to build off the five points he’s put up over the past four games.
Wing
Top Play
Max Pacioretty ($7,700 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Wild
There is a big discrepancy in Max Pacioretty’s salary on both platforms tonight, but that doesn’t diminish his fantasy value as the Vegas Golden Knights take on the Minnesota Wild.
Pacioretty is coming off a two-goal performance, adding to his seven-game point streak since his return to the lineup on November 24. Over that span, Patches has put up seven goals and 11 points, averaging 26.7 fantasy points per outing. Those impressive outings have pushed Pacioretty to the top of the expected goals-for pile on the Golden Knights, staking him to a team-best 59.7% rating across all strengths.
The Golden Knights have been operating efficiently since Pacioretty returned to the lineup, and we’re expecting him to reach his fantasy ceiling against the Wild.
Top Value
Kevin Fiala ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel) vs. Vegas Golden Knights
Opposite of Pacioretty on tonight’s slate is Kevin Fiala. Fiala has low-key been one of the best players on the Wild this season, and we’re starting to see his output catch up to production.
The Swiss-born winger sits fourth on the Wild with a 60.4% expected goals-for percentage across all strengths. Fiala has been on the ice for the third-most scoring chances and the most high-danger chances on the team. However, Fiala remains below expected output values, with his actual goals-for lower than expected at five-on-five. This is also reflected in his on-ice PDO, which is below the hypothetical average of 1.000.
Fiala is starting to progress, recording three points over his past two games. We like that upward trend to continue on Sunday night.
Defense
Top Play
Cale Makar ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) vs. Florida Panthers
Somehow Cale Makar is improving on his already other-worldly metrics. Based on our projections, Makar should continue to be an elite fantasy producer against the Panthers on Sunday night.
Makar leads Avs’ defensemen with a 63.1% expected goals-for rating, ranking second in the NHL among defensemen who have played at least 150 minutes this season. The third-year defenseman has been able to translate that to success on the ice, leading the league in goals among defensemen and pacing the Avs in game-winning goals and powerplay assists.
Makar has been a key cog in Colorado’s success this season and is our top play on defense on Sunday’s slates.
Top Value
Colton Parayko ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel) vs. Anaheim Ducks
As noted, the Blues are in a good spot on Sunday night and that should facilitate another solid fantasy performance from Colton Parayko, who remains undervalued on DFS slates.
Parayko has been on the ice for the sixth-most scoring and high-danger opportunities on the Blues, despite getting limited minutes on the powerplay. The veteran defender is a fantasy threat on both ends of the ice, averaging 2.1 blocks and 2.0 shots per game this season. Parayko is tied for the team lead in scoring among defensemen and will continue to see more ice-time than any other Blues player.
There are several Blues defensemen who rate well on tonight’s slate, but we like Parayko to shine against the Ducks.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Robin Lehner ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Wild
The Wild are playing on the second consecutive night and their third game in four nights when they take on the Golden Knights tonight. That should lead to a decreased workload for Robin Lehner, as he bounces back from a poor performance last time out.
Last game notwithstanding, Lehner had been trending upward on home ice recently. The veteran netminder had stopped 91.3% of shots in the six previous games, winning four of those six contests. He won’t face a ton of pressure from a Wild offense that has been more reserved on the second night of a back-to-back this season. Minny has attempted eight or fewer high-danger chances in four of five games this season, averaging 6.2 per game.
The Golden Knights will be rested and should dictate the pace on Sunday night, allowing Lehner to get back on the winning track.
Top Value
Thatcher Demko ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel) vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Yet again, Thatcher Demko is undervalued on tonight’s DFS slates as the Vancouver Canucks take on the Carolina Hurricanes.
Demko and the Nucks are in a similar position to Lehner and the Knights. They are welcoming in a Canes team that is on the second night of a back-to-back with travel. Demko has shone since Bruce Boudreau landed in Vancouver, winning all three starts and posting a cumulative 96.2% save percentage across those outings.
The American-born tendy rates highly in our projections and faces a well-traveled Canes’ squad that is playing their third road game in four nights.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
There are a few teams heading into tonight’s games under ideal circumstances, but we like the Golden Knights stack the most.
As noted, Max Pacioretty has been driving the offensive bus since returning a few weeks ago and is the top option on the wing. Keegan Kolesar has been centering the top line that features Patches and Mark Stone and is an expensive option up the middle that correlates well with Pacioretty’s solid fantasy showings. As always, Alex Pietrangelo is a top option on the Knights’ blue line and is the defenseman we’ve included in today’s stack. Before his last start, Robin Lehner was trending up at home and should get back on track against a Wild offense that has struggled on the second night of back-to-backs.
Betting market confidence is also high on the Knights. They opened in the -135 range but have been bought up to -155. That line will continue moving as bettors recognize the Knights’ value.
