The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
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Top Play
Nathan MacKinnon ($8,400 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Even though MacKinnon has a better Bargain Rating on DraftKings today, he’s still cheaper on FanDuel than both of his Oiler counterparts, so he really becomes a good pivot play on both sites. The Colorado center has a top-three rating in the Projected Points Model and should be asked to do a ton with Mikko Rantanen still out. The Blue Jackets are a solid opponent here for DFS, too as they have the 11th-worst penalty-kill and have allowed the second-most shots on net so far this season.
Long term, MacKinnon still leads his position in shots on net per game, and he’s trending well in the points department with seven in his last four games. Mackinnon is an easy stack with either of his wingers, who he’ll be up with at regular strength and on the first-line PP unit.
It’s easy to bypass other studs when the Oilers are on the slate but don’t bypass MacKinnon, who should push for the shots on goal bonus here and multiple point night against a weak opponent.
Top Value
Phillip Danault ($3,300 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Blues
Former Canadien Phillip Danault enters this game off a stinker performance against Buffalo, but he has been a better DFS value, for the most part, this season in his new digs. Danault had recorded multiple shots on net in five straight games prior to the game against Buffalo and is skating in a solid top-six role which has seen him average over 16 minutes of ice in that same span. There may be better days coming here for Danault too, who seems to be shooting the puck with regularity right now and ranks sixth on this slate at center in long-term CorsiFor percentage.
Ultimately we have a player ranked in the mid $3,000 price range on both sites here who gets second-line powerplay exposure, so we shouldn’t be overly shocked that he rates out well. He does rate out as a better bargain on Fanduel today, where he’s got an 85% Bargain Rating.
Wing
Top Play
Gabriel Landeskog ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
It was extremely close between Gabriel Landeskog and the Blues David Perron in the Ratings today, as both men carry similar long-term form and have almost exactly the same salary on both sites. As you can probably tell, though, I’m liking the Avalanche forwards tonight who have a matchup with a Blue Jackets team who really don’t impress much on defense.
Landeskog leads this slate in Ceiling Projection the FantasyLabs Projected Points Model tonight at wing and is well ahead of Perron in both long-term CorsiFor Rating and powerplay time per game (where he sees almost four minutes of ice per game). While Perron is a player we may expect to cool off a bit; eventually, Landeskog’s recent surge (six points in four games) is more real, and we can expect a bigger shot rate and better usage today with Mikko Rantanen still out.
He rates out as the winger to target here and makes for a near-free space on DraftKings at $6,200, where he has an insane 98% Bargain Rating in our models.
Top Value
Arthur Kaliyev (2,900 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Blues
We’ll keep the pattern going here as we again swing back to the Kings for some value tonight against a Blues team who does like to allow lots of rubber on the goaltenders. Arthur Kaliyev definitely spiked in the ratings today (he’s ranked ninth in the Projected Points Model on DraftKings) and comes in second at his position in Ceiling Projection on both sites.
There is some reasoning behind this strong rating, though. The rookie is beyond cheap (especially on DraftKings, where he’s sub-$3,000) but sees first-line powerplay minutes and is also averaging 2.5 shots on goal per game.
Kaliyev already has two powerplay points on the season, so while his third-line role may seem scary (especially on a team like the Kings) the appeal here is the first-line powerplay exposure on a team that ranks out 11th in powerplay efficiency this year.
Defense
Top Play
Darnell Nurse ($5,600 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel) vs. Nashville Predators
The ratings in the Projected Points Model today are tight at the top on defense, where Roman Josi slightly out-leans Darnell Nurse. Despite Josi leading the rankings, it is Nurse who rates out as the better bargain here. He’s averaging 4.5 shots on goal this season and ranks in the top fifth percentile for shots on goal and Corsi percentage in the short-term Pro Trends Tool.
Nurse’s main appeal, of course, is that he’s simply far cheaper to roster here than Josi ($2,100 cheaper on DraftKings) and is also well overdue for some positive regression from a goal-scoring perspective. Nurse landed a career-high 16 goals last year but comes into this game without one on the season — despite 35 shots on net.
Outside of some hot goaltending, Nashville isn’t a scary opponent and comes in with the 13th-worst penalty-kill on the season. Nurse is a good leverage play in GPPs as well, with many likely choosing to spend up on the Oilers forwards and bypass their expensive defensemen.
If Nurse’s positive regression hits tonight, though, we could be looking at his first monster game of the year, which could really turn the tide to Nurse owners in large-field GPPs.
Top Value
Samuel Girard ($2,700 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Samuel Girard doesn’t need much explanation tonight. He’ll be manning the Avalanche’s first-unit powerplay in all likelihood with Cale Makar and Devon Toews out. Girard just returned from injury himself last game, but the Avalanche don’t have any time to ease him back into action. Girard flourished in this role last year when Makar was out and set career highs in point rate (0.66) and goals in a shortened season.
Girard’s way too cheap on DraftKings, where he has a rating in the Projected Points Model today nine points higher than the next skater at his position. He’ll be slightly more of a contrarian option on FanDuel, where his $4,500 salary makes him less automatic. Pairing him with the other Avalanche studs mentioned here is likely a good way to approach things today as many will look to him as an easy punt option, but few will roster all three of the Avalanche players I’ve written up today.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Jonas Johansson ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
With the Avalanche set as the second-biggest favorites on the slate today at -201, Colorado backup Jonas Johansson sets up as a potentially great player to target. The backup is only playing in his second game of the year so the confidence from the DFS community is unlikely to be high in this spot, especially when you factor in the injuries the Avalanche have sustained of late. With people perhaps more prone to think about using the Columbus goalie in this spot, Johansson could also become somewhat of a leverage play, a highly rated one at that.
The Swede ranks out first in Ceiling Projection on this slate and did stop 34 of the 37 shots he faced in his first and only start of the year. Columbus ranks fifth-last in xGF% on the season as well, and they’re an offense who may actually be due for some regression in the short term after a fairly hot start.
Top Value
Marc Andre Fleury ($7,500 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel) vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Marc Andre Fleury heads into this slate with the third-biggest biggest save prediction in the FantasyLabs Model today at 33.9. The former Penguin and Golden Knight has got his act together over the last couple of games and has now stopped 65 of the last 67 shots he’s faced.
The Blackhawks are significant home underdogs here at +134, but Fleury also rates out well in the Projected Points Model and has the largest Ceiling Projection on the slate. Given Chicago’s issues of late and the fact that the Hurricanes remain undefeated, the chances of too much of the field piling on Fleury here (and his hot play of late) don’t seem that high.
He makes for a good leverage option against what should be decent ownership on the Hurricanes forwards.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
Blues PP1 – Vladimir Tarasenko — David Perron — Torey Krug
We haven’t talked much about the St. Louis Blues yet today, and that’s likely a mistake as the Blues are solid favorites here and have an implied goal total of 3.0. They also take on the Kings, who rank out with the fourth-worst penalty-kill in the league and have a weaker goalie duo. The Blues powerplay has been firing on all cylinders this year, regardless of opponent, and the return to form of Vladimir Tarasenko has been a huge part.
I like building around Tarasenko in DraftKings today, specifically where he’s only $6,400 and easier to fit beside another elite winger in David Perron. As mentioned above, Perron still rates out well in the models today, and using him alongside Tarasenko will provide a more unique build, given many will simply pair him with his natural center, Ryan O’Reilly. Both Perron and Tarasenko rank out in the top eight at their position in long-term shots on goal, though, and both could pot goals in this spot against a weak opponent.
Pairing them with Torey Krug, who they’ll also see time with on the PP1, makes sense for the added correlation. The cheaper defenseman who is sure to benefit if the Blues power-play continues its dominance here.
