The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
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Top Play
Nathan MacKinnon ($8,700 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
This feels like Deja Vu all over again. Nathan MacKinnon and Auston Matthews were on the slate together last Thursday, with MacKinnon taking on these same Blue Jackets. We sided with MacKinnon then, and with the superior matchup, I’m fine siding with MacKinnon today as well. Columbus is not a great team defensively and allowed five goals in that Avalanche 5-4 win on Thursday. The fact we only got one assist out of the game from MacKinnon was a touch unlucky, but there’s nothing to suggest the pendulum can’t swing back in our favor tonight.
MacKinnon tops the Ceiling Projections on FanDuel, where he’s slightly more expensive and has a better overall rating in the Projected Points Model than Matthews on DraftKings as well. Matthews has a slight edge in shots on goal, but MacKinnon has a solid lead in points per game. The Blue Jackets have a bottom-12 penalty-kill and allow the most shots on net per game.
We have a great chance at getting the multi-point game we missed out on last Thursday.
Top Value
Tomas Hertl ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
Centre feels like a position you will want to double down on today. Tomas Hertl is a good mid-tier mid-tier option who ranks out fourth in goals per game and sixth in Ceiling Projection on DraftKings. The Sharks come into this game against the Devils, who are without two of their best players, with a 3.3 implied team total, so there are lots to like here about rostering their top-line players.
Hertl has developed into a solid top-six center to target for fantasy purposes as he’s averaging 2.6 shots on goal (which is above his career average) and gets first-line powerplay exposure. The Devils are a great opponent as they have the sixth-worst penalty-kill as well. Long term, maybe his shooting percentage comes down towards the back half of the year, but Hertle should make up for that with more shots on goal, too, especially with puck hog Evander Kane not with the team. He and the Sharks forwards make for great stacking options tonight.
Wing
Top Play
Kirill Kaprizov ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Kirill Kaprizov landed his first goal of the season in his last game. Despite the slow start offensively, Kaprizov is still trending well in the Pro Trends on FantasyLabs. He ranks inside the top-5% at his position in shot attempts and Corsi rating for the last month and is averaging right around 4.0 shots on goal for the season.
We know what kind of talent Kaprizov is, and it’s pretty clear from the stats and trends here that he’s simply had a little bit of bad luck around the net to start the year. That regression was likely due after he ended last year with 11 goals in his last 13 regular-season games. His shooting percentage on the year is still under 4% (it was 14.8% last year), so more positive regression is looming. The Penguins have allowed four or more goals in three of their last four games now and are likely due for a little defensive and special teams regression themselves.
Kaprizov tops the ratings in the Projected Points Model on FanDuel and makes for a solid target.
Top Value
Evgenii Dadonov (3,200 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) at Montreal Canadiens
The Vegas Golden Knights are still reeling upfront without their two best wingers. That’s opened up opportunities for players like Evgenii Dadonov, who enters this game averaging 2.9 shots on goal per game and playing in a defined top-six role. Right off the bat, the prices on Dadonov should interest us here just given how he’s being used and the fact the Russian has seen elevated powerplay exposure of late as well.
While he’s never going to be a point-per-game player, he’s trending in the top-10% at his position in both shots on goal and Corsi Rating right now, which suggests there are some more breakout nights coming. A goal against the Canadiens wouldn’t exactly be shocking given how bad Montreal is either, as they enter with the seventh-worst goals-against average and the fourth-worst penalty-kill.
Dadonov is the highest-rated player at wing under $3,500 today on DraftKings and makes for a solid value target.
Defense
Top Play
Alex Pietrangelo ($7,000 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) at Montreal Canadiens
Alex Pietrangelo has finally seemed to pick things up after a slow start. The former St. Louis Blue now has points in two of his last three games and is still shooting well below his career shooting percentage in 2021-2022 (2.9% on the year vs. 6.0% for his career), so some positive goal-scoring regression is likely due in his future.
Pietrangelo isn’t cheap — although he’s a far better bargain on FanDuel — he’s the clear leader at his position in blocked shots + shots on goal in long-term form (leads 0.80) and is fourth in CorsiFor Rating. The matchup is good, considering Montreal’s poor special teams. Pairing him with one of Vegas’s underpriced wingers gives you a nice way to balance out his big salary and get exposure to a team with a solid opponent for fantasy purposes tonight.
Top Value
Moritz Seider ($4,800 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) @ Buffalo Sabres
Seider comes into this game averaging right around 3.6 blocked shots + shots on goal per game. He’s getting top-unit powerplay exposure for the Detroit Red Wings, and five of his nine assists on the season have come with the man advantage. That’s a pretty good spot to be in, considering Seider is under $5,000 on both sites.
Long term, he rates out sixth in fantasy points per game on DraftKings and seventh in fantasy points per game on FanDuel, where he’s got a 90% Bargain Rating today. The Red Wings have taken a step back in their last two games but face a Sabres team here who likely aren’t as good as their current defensive metrics suggest (and come into this game having lost three in a row). Seider’s in a good spot to keep producing and rates out as very underpriced considering where he ranks just in average points per game over the short term.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Adin Hill ($8,300 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
The Sharks come in as decent favorites at -140 in the Vegas Odds Indicator. This slate doesn’t have a prolific favorite that cracks -200 in the odds, so the goalies in this range should all peak our interest. Adin Hill isn’t a big name at his position, but he gets an injured Devils team today who played last night and lost to the Kings.
Hill ranks third in the Ceiling Projections, and that’s really what we want to focus on here. He’s inconsistent, and his price is up, but again, there are no overwhelming favorites on this slate, so, realistically, Hill’s chance of picking up a win for us sits around the same as most players on this slate.
He’s predicated for over 30 saves in this spot in the FantasyLabs Models and already has one shutout on the season. For GPPs, stacking Hill with our Sharks skaters gives us the best of both worlds as any blowout Sharks victory means we get the skater and goalie points tonight from that kind of outcome.
Top Value
Igor Shesterkin ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel) @ Calgary Flames
Igor Shesterkin should get the start here for the Rangers after he sat last night when his team was taking on the Oilers. That OT loss is sure to take the wind out of the Rangers skaters, so Shesterkin could be in store to see a lot of rubber today. He’s predicted for over 33 shots against tonight and rates out as the top netminder in the Ceiling Projections on DraftKings, where he also has a 97% Bargain Rating.
Shesterkin has been nothing short of brilliant to start the year, and the fact the Rangers are +120 underdogs and played last night could keep his ownership slightly depressed here. From both a value and projection standpoint, he tops the Ratings for play on DraftKings in this spot and could be more of a contrarian option on FanDuel, where his bigger salary will likely keep more people off him.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
Philadelphia Flyers – Power Play 1 (Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny, Claude Giroux)
San Jose Sharks – Power Play 1 (Brent Burns, Jonathan Dahlen, Logan Couture)
These two powerplay units rank out as the most cost-effective stacks (for play on DraftKings) in the top-10 stacks output when we use the Projected Points Model in the Stacks Tool on FantasyLabs today. The Flyers take on the Capitals, who likely get too much respect from a matchup standpoint. They’ve allowed three or more goals against now in five of their last six games and rank out with the 10th worst penalty-kill
A Sharks stack is also cheap, thanks to Jonathan Dahlen’s $5,000 price tag on DraftKings. He continues to skate with Logan Couture at even strength, making them a valuable duo. Any Sharks powerplay stack should have Brent Burns in it, who is having a renaissance type of year and remains a staple on the Sharks powerplay.
The Devils are without their best defender and come in with the eighth-worst penalty-kill.
