The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Center
Top Play
Leon Draisaitl ($9,200 DraftKings, $9,900 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
The Oilers centers rate 1-2 in the Projected Points Model today on FantasyLabs, in Ceiling Projection, but it is Draisaitl who rates out as the slightly better value. Drasiatl still trails Conner McDavid in terms of fantasy points per game in long-term form but does have a better goal rate than McDavid and has been brutally efficient with his shot this year, landing goals on over 30% of his shots on net.
Maybe that stat cools off eventually, but tonight he faces the Blackhawks, who rate out as the best opponent for centers in terms of the Opponent Plus/Minus Rating on FantasyLabs. The Oilers are projected with a slate-high 4.0 implied goal total here, so paying up for one of their big names is completely justified. Going with Draisaitl over his center-mate saves us cash on DraftKings today in this juicy matchup.
Top Value
Jamie Benn ($3,200 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Blues
We have a huge price discrepancy and position discrepancy today with Jamie Benn today, and it’s good to note here for strategy purposes. The Star forward comes into this game, manning the third line as a center for the team but is still playing well over 16-minutes every game. He’s really started to pick up the pace in his new role as well and comes into this game looking hot in the short-term Pro Trends and goals in two straight games.
Benn rates out as the ninth-highest rated player at center on DraftKings today, and it’s for good reason. He’s averaged 4.0 shots on goal over his last five games and takes on a Blues team who has allowed three or more goals in four of their last five starts. Benn’s more of a GPP option on Fanduel where many will bypass him, but pairing him with linemate Denis Gurianov, there could you a unique mini-stack today with solid upside.
Wing
Top Play
Mitchell Marner ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
The Maple Leafs are slated as -165 favorites today vs. Pittsburgh and have a solid 3.1 implied team total as of writing. Mitchell Marner rates out fifth in Ceiling Projection on DraftKings and fourth in that same category on FanDuel, where he has an 83% Bargain Rating. This is an offense we want to get a piece of today, and Marner lets us do that at an affordable price. He’s cooled off a bit in the fantasy production of late but faces a Pittsburgh team here who is still thin down the middle and on a longer Canadian road trip.
Marner’s been paired again with Auston Matthews upfront, so you could look to pair the two as they could get overlooked slightly with the Oilers and Ovechkin both also on this slate. Marner by himself, though can be a solid target as he still carries solid long-term shots on goal and goal rates which justify his salary.
Top Value
Taylor Hall ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) @Philadelphia Flyers
Taylor Hall is stuck in a second-line role for the Bruins, who tend to be one of the most top-heavy scoring teams in the league. That doesn’t mean Hall can’t have his moments, though and the former MVP has started to be more aggressive with his shot of late, landing 7 shots on net and two points in his last outing alone. The Bruins’ second line is something we should always be thinking about targeting for GPP purposes as the cheap salaries, and increased upside with Hall makes them a great low-owned target many nights.
Hall rates out eighth in pure Ceiling Projection today in the FantasyLabs Projected Points Model and takes on a Philadelphia team who has started to show more cracks defensively of late, allowing four or more goals in two of their last three games. Hall’s a heady value you should be keen to take on.
Defense
Top Play
Jakob Chychrun ($6,700 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Red Wings
We’ve been waiting all year for Jakob Chychrun to get on track, and the American finally looks like he may be ready to start producing like an elite fantasy defenseman for us again. Chychrun comes in with goals in two of his last three games and with 13 shots on net in his last three games as well. As I’ve mentioned all season, he still rates out as an elite play in the blocked shots + shots on goal categories, where he’s ranked second in long-term form on this slate.
Chychrun simply went ice cold offensively on a bad Coyotes team to start the year. He’s finally found a rhythm of late, though and rates out as a big play today as he has the Detroit Red Wings on tap, a team who takes the seventh-most penalties in the league and also ranks out with the 11th worst penalty-kill in the league. Chychrun is a great value on FanDuel — where he’s sure to be heavily owned — but is also a preferred pay-up play on DraftKings, where he’s still got the highest Ceiling Projection of any defenseman over $6,000 today.
Top Value
John Klingberg ($4,600 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Blues
The Dallas Stars have had a miserable start to the year, but one area they’ve done well in is special teams, where they currently rank fourth in powerplay efficiency. It’s rare that we can get a defenseman who mans his first-team powerplay at well under $5,000 on both sites, but that’s the situation we have with John Klingberg today. The Swede has started his season slowly, but he’s also known as a streaky player. From a model perspective, Klingberg rates out as the player with the best Player Rating today on FantasyLabs with a salary of under $5,000 on DraftKings.
The Blues penalty-kill got off to a hot start this year, but they have fallen way down to the middle of the pack now in efficiency, and St. Louis also enters this game, having now lost four of its last five games, overall. Klingberg and the Stars forwards here all look perky today in the projections and make for good cheap stacking targets here against a Blues team who looks to be reverting back to the mean defensively.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Jack Campbell ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
The Leafs enter this game as solid favorites and take on a Penguins team who has struggled to find offense at various points this year. Pittsburgh broke out in their last game against Montreal but also struggled to find the net against bad teams like the Sabres and Senators in previous games.
Jack Campbell isn’t the biggest favorite on the slate, but he is the highest-rated one on FantasyLabs today. The Toronto netminder is in the midst of a Vezina-like season right now and enters this game, having stopped 117 of the last 119 shots he’s faced. Campbell tops the Ceiling Projections today on both major sites by a mile, and he may not even be that heavily owned given all the relative big forwards we have available to pay up for today. Getting up to Campbell here, though, is certainly a strategy that could pay dividends and may be a good way to differentiate yourself on this wide-open slate.
Top Value
Jusse Saros ($7,700 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) at Montreal Canadiens
It’s not tough to figure out why we like Jusse Saros today. The Montreal Canadiens are the epitome of a dumpster fire right now as they sit with just a 4-13-2 record on the season and have been starting an AHL level goalie of late — who got shelled for six goals his last time out.
Saros enters this game as a road favorite here too, which really makes his cheaper salaries on both sites that much more appealing. Saros hasn’t allowed more than two goals now in eight straight starts and is simply in a huge mismatch here against a Montreal team who doesn’t have the cohesiveness or firepower to solve a goalie this good. Expect the Finn to be a popular paydown option, but don’t be afraid to eat the chalk here a little either, as setups don’t get much better than this for cheap goalies.
Notable Stacks
Stars L1 – Roope Hintz — Jason Robertson — Joe Pavelski
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
As I mentioned above, when talking about John Klingberg and Jamie Benn, many of the Stars forwards were popping in the Model. The Blues have certainly cooled off enough after a hot start to make this a solid match-up for them, and many of Dallas players can still be had at bargain prices.
When we run the FantasyLabs Stacking Tool by Player Rating today, the Stars first-line comes out on top for us. The three only cost 14.4k on DraftKings today and are a well-correlated first-line, who skate together at even strength and on the power-play. Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson have started to come on of late, and last year these two young players flashed multi-point upside potential every night. With sentiment low here and their prices still depressed, using this Stars trio can let you pay up in net or center today, which is almost certain to be needed given the studs on this slate.
