The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday has a nine-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Patrice Bergeron ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
The Bruins Patrice Bergeron ranks out at the top of the FantasyLabs Player Ratings in the Projected Points Model today on DraftKings. He’s also fifth in that same category on FanDuel, but his salary on DraftKings obviously makes him a better bargain there. While the natural inclination may be to shy away from any Lightning matchup, Boston is decent enough favorites here and projected with a 2.9 implied goal total, so using Bergeron at these prices should pay dividends.
The Lighting have allowed over 3.0 goals per game, and over 30 shots on net per game in nine road starts this year, and Bergeron has been an absolute stud of late, regardless of opponent. He’s averaging 5.3 shots on goal + blocked shots over his last 10 games and ranks in the top 1% at his position for that stat in the short-term trends. Stacking the Bruins’ top line could be a little bit of a contrarian move today with Carolina and Colorado in such good matchups, and Bergeron is the stud you should build around if employing that strategy.
Top Value
Pius Suter ($2,900 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) vs. New York Islanders
The Islanders have been in full tank mode of late, and there’s certainly no harm in looking to their opponents right now for DFS purposes, even if it is a weaker team like Detroit they’re taking on tonight. The Red Wings are projected for around 2.8 goals here and about even with the Islanders in the odds too. Pius Suter is ultra-cheap on DraftKings today and has averaged 0.5 points and 2.0 shots on net per game over his last 10-starts. The Swiss-born center has seen more time on the first-unit powerplay of late, too, and the Wings have now won four games in a row.
Suter’s a solid way to get exposure to a Detroit offense who you shouldn’t just be writing off here. If you want to stack a bit of their power-play (the Isles have just a league-average penalty-kill), starting with Suter will keep your salary average flexible today.
Wing
Top Play
Mikko Rantanen ($8,600 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) @ Ottawa Seantors
The Avalanche take on the Senators, making this a spot where we should be looking up and down the Colorado lineup for plays. The Senators have been terrible at keeping the puck out of their own net over the last month and now sit at the bottom of the league in goals-against per game. Mikko Rantanen has been an elite winger all season and still ranks inside the top five in Corsi Rating and shots on goal over the last month in the FantasyLabs ProTrends Tool. He’s at the top of the Ceiling Projections today on FanDuel, too, where he also has a 92% Bargain Rating.
In terms of how you want to deploy Rantanen, who will be popular here, he does have a stronger correlation with Gabriel Landeskog in the FantasyLabs Correlation Ratings. Using those two wingers and leaving the expensive Nathan MacKinnon out is one way to potentially have more unique builds in larger contests today.
Top Value
Anders Lee ($5,900 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) @ Detroit Red Wings
The Islanders have cratered so far in 2021 and enter this game on a nine-game losing streak which has seen them score just eight goals in their last nine games (all losses). It’s not exactly a ringing endorsement for a player like Anders Lee, who is supposed to be carrying their top six. Lee, however, did miss a lot of this last stretch due to contracting COVID and rates out well here in both the Ceiling Ratings and Opponent Plus/Minus projections today.
There’s undoubtedly a lot of risk in rostering a player who has zero assists in 13 games this year, but Lee is known for his goal-scoring ability and will be seeing lots of ice against a Detroit team that allows 33.7 shots against per game and has the eighth-worst penalty-kill in the league. Lee’s a great bargain on FanDuel today, where he’s ranked fourth in overall Player Rating for that site.
Defense
Top Play
Roman Josi ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) vs. Montreal Canadiens
When we look at the top of the defensemen projection today, Roman Josi stands out as a clear top-three play on both sites. He actually tops the Ceiling Projections for DraftKings here by nearly a point, yet is also $600 cheaper than the top-priced player at his position. While punting defense is always an option, defensemen like Josi can make it painful to fade them on a big night, and he’s got a great matchup here against Montreal.
The Canadiens rank out as the second-best opponent for defensemen tonight in the Opponent Plus/Minus category in the FantasyLabs Model and still rank out with a bottom-five penalty-kill. Josi enters averaging 5.2 blocked shots + shots on goal per game here and has seen 10 of his 20 points this year come on the power-play. He’s in a prime position to post a monster night here against the poor special teams (and overall defense) of Montreal.
Top Value
Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($4,500 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
The Canucks powerplay has clicked in two straight games now, and their efficiency with the man advantage has been the one small bright spot on this team in 2021 thus far. Oliver Ekman-Larsson gets us decent exposure to this unit for cheap on defense and has seen both of his goals this year come on the powerplay. While he’s hardly been a reliable point-producer, he is averaging 3.0 blocked shots + shots on goal over his last 10 games and ranks in the top 10% in Corsi Rating and shots on goal in short-term form via the FantasyLabs Pro Trends tool.
Ekman-Larsson has now landed three or more shots on net in five of his last six games, and, with the Canucks offense starting to show signs of more consistency of late, his point production certainly seems likely to experience some positive regression in the short-term soon. He rates out as a solid bargain play on defense today with good upside for his price.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Jack Campbell ($7,800 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel) @ Minnesota Wild
The Leafs and the Wild meet here in a battle between two of the stronger teams in the NHL at the moment. Despite being on the road here and going up against a Wild team who has won five straight now, the Leafs are actually -122 favorites tonight. That’s significant and means we shouldn’t shy away from using a quality goaltender like Jack Campbell here, who enters this game with a .943 save percentage on the season.
Outside of the Hurricanes, we don’t have a ton of huge favorites to pick from on this slate. Campbell’s blend of good form and cheaper salary (he’s under $8,000 on both sites) makes him an intriguing option here, especially for big field GPPs where the likelihood of him being highly owned against a solid team like Minnesota seems low.
Top Value
Thatcher Demko ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
The Canucks have played slightly better of late and have now picked up wins in each of their last two starts. A lot of those performances had to do with strong goaltending performances from Thatcher Demko, who rates out very well here in the FantasyLabs Model. Demko is in the top five in Ceiling Projection on both sites and has a 29.3 save prediction output here in the Model as well.
The Canucks are +124 home underdogs in this spot, but the Penguins are also on the tail end of a long Western Canadian road trip and have scored just seven goals in their last four games. This aging offense is worth attacking tonight with the cheap Demko in big fields.
Notable Stack
Hurricanes L1 – Sebastian Aho – Nino Niederreiter – Teuvo Teravainen
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
The Carolina Hurricanes have been on a slide of late, but they take on a Sabres team who have allowed 5.4 goals per game over their last eight games. When we run the Lineup Builder with our Stacking Tool on FantasyLabs today (under the Projected Points Model), the Hurricanes’ first line comes up tops.
Sebastian Aho certainly looks like a steal in this matchup at just $7,700, and while Aho isn’t a player we necessarily need to stack with (he doesn’t have strong Correlation Ratings with many wingers), he is slated to skate alongside two cheap wingers today. Teravainen and Niederreiter actually have strong correlation with each other, and Teravainen now sits in the top 5% of all wingers in shots on goal in the short-term ProTrends Tool on FantasyLabs as well.
This line is due for some positive regression soon and has a great chance at finding some against a terrible defensive club in Buffalo tonight.
