The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday has a 6-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Leon Draisaitl ($9,000 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) @ Seattle Kraken
The Oilers head into tonight off a big bounce-back win vs. the Blue Jackets and have a solid 3.2 implied team total. The Kraken remain incapable of keeping the puck out of their own net most nights as well and rank out with the third-worst goals-against average. With a lot of value on the slate everywhere tonight, it’s definitely a situation where we should be looking to ride this Oilers offense, which is likely due for more positive short-term regression here after a six-game slump.
Leon Draisaitl ranks out right behind his teammate Connor McDavid in the Ceiling Projections today on FantasyLabs but comes in far cheaper. On DraftKings, Draisaitl actually has the better Player Rating in the Projected Points Model and is a full $700 cheaper there. It’s a good spot for him to rebound tonight after going scoreless in five of his last six games. The Oilers’ second line, headed by Draisaitl, makes for a good stacking option here as well.
Top Value
Jack Hughes ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel) @ Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings have now allowed an average of 5.0 goals against over their last five games. The short-term issues for Detroit in net and on special teams means this is a great opportunity to stack some of the Devils’ cheaper forwards tonight, and none rank out better on FantasyLabs than Jack Hughes. Hughes is ranked in the top 10% in Corsi Rating at his position over the last month (via the FantasyLabs Player Trends) and has started to produce in the point department as well, with four points and two goals in his last five games.
Hughes has the fourth-best Player Rating in the Projected Points Model today for play on DraftKings, where he’s obviously a much better value at under $5,000. Still, his Ceiling Projection on both sites is strong enough that we can consider using him with the Devils’ other top powerplay specialists for a stack against a bad Detroit penalty-kill. Hughes is good value here.
Wing
Top Play
Brady Tkachuk ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel) @ Philadelphia Flyers
The Senators offense has been a great fantasy producer over the last few weeks, and there have been few more consistent Senators in fantasy over that span than Brady Tkachuk. The winger has seven goals and nine points now over his last seven games and ranks in the top 5% in the Player Trends for shots on goal at his position over the last month.
We don’t have a ton of big named wingers on this slate, but Tkachuk ranks in the top five in Ceiling Projections in the FantasyLabs Model on both sites and is very close behind some of the other top plays at his position — who are all priced well above him. The Flyers have allowed the ninth most scoring chances against this year and second-most shots on goal per game in the league, making this an excellent matchup. Keep targeting the depressed prices on Tkachuk and the entire Ottawa first line.
Top Value
Lucas Raymond ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
As much as I like targeting the other side of this game against the weaker Detroit defense, the Devils are hardly defensive behemoths themselves. New Jersey has the 12th-worst penalty-kill in the league and also takes the 11th most penalties per game, making this a good spot for the Red Wings powerplay to potentially get on the board. Rookie Lucas Raymond continues to get plenty of first line and PP1 exposure and rates out very strongly here, especially on FanDuel, where he has the second-highest Ceiling Projection on the slate at wing.
Raymond’s actually slightly cheaper on DraftKings too, and should have a decent shot at breaking out of a six-game scoreless slump. It’s a rare spot for the Red Wings, who are set as favorites and have an implied goal total of over 3.0 tonight.
Defense
Top Play
Dougie Hamilton ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel) @ Detroit Red Wings
If we like the matchup for the Devils today, then looking to pay up for their quality players is something that we shouldn’t be shying away from. The defensive ratings today on FantasyLabs actually have quite significant gaps between the top players as Dougie Hamilton projects out with a Ceiling Projection that is two points higher than the next highest-ranked player on both major sites
Hamilton comes into this game in a bit of a slump in terms of general points production — just one point in his last seven games — but he’s still ranked second in points per game and CorsiFor rating at his position in the long-term form. Detroit has allowed goals at an alarming rate of late (5.0 per game in their last five starts), and this is a great night for Hamilton to not only get back on the board points-wise but breakout with a massive fantasy night.
Top Value
Evan Bouchard ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel) @ Seattle Kraken
The Oilers are another team to load up on tonight at all positions, and if you are looking for value at defense, then Evan Bouchard should be high on your list. Despite only grabbing one point in his last six games, he’s also due for a small breakout soon and has continued to produce great tertiary stats despite the point slump.
Bouchard ranks in the top 5% at his position in shots on goal + blocked shots and in Corsi Rating over the last month. He’s also ranked fourth in overall Player Ratings on defense today, for both sites, and is a good way to get a cheaper piece of an Oilers offense which looks set to push for four-plus goals again against a weaker defensive squad.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Mikko Koskinen ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) @ Seattle Kraken
It’s been a roller coaster of emotions for the Oilers in net this year as they’ve gotten some big games from both Mikko Koskinen and rookie Stuart Skinner. Lately, those big games have dried up and Koskinen comes into this meeting with Seattle on a four-game losing streak where he’s only managed to post a save percentage over .900 once.
We know Koskinen is streaky and a big bounce-back game wouldn’t be shocking in the least here, especially with the Oilers offense likely to support him well after bouncing back against the Blue Jackets. He rates out with the third-best Ceiling Projection today in goal on both sites and makes for a good contrarian target in GPPs where many will likely load up on Oilers offensive players but might not think to grab the potential upside with a solid road favorite in Koskinen.
Anton Forsberg ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel) @ Philadelphia Flyers
The Senators have now won five of their last seven games and head into this game against the Flyers as just +110 road underdogs. Anton Forsberg sets up as the likely starter today and has posted save percentages of .924 or better in each of his last three starts and is predicted for over 28 saves today.
The Flyers have played better of late, but this game should be close between two teams who still allow lots of scoring chances but have picked up the pace on offense of late. Forsberg’s improved play of late gives Ottawa the advantage in goal, and he rates out well today in the Projected Points Model. Look to the Senators netminder for upside in GPPs if you want to semi-punt the goal position.
Notable Stack
Devils PP1 – Dougie Hamilton – Jack Hughes – Jesper Bratt
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
There’s plenty of interesting spots/lines to pay up for today. The Oilers’ top unit remains super cheap, and their second line of Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, and Yamamoto will likely be overlooked. The Senators’ top line has also been huge fantasy producers, and we obviously like the projections for Brady Tkachuk.
Still, when we run the FantasyLabs Stacking Tool here, the stack with the lowest cost in the top five, by far, is the Devils. The Red Wings have one of the worst penalty-kills in the league, and we can get the combo of Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt for right around $10,000 on DraftKings, which allows us to fit in Dougie Hamilton, who projects very strongly today.
Look to the Devils’ top line and powerplay for a great combo of upside and value today.
