The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday has an 11-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play Leon Draisaitl ($8,800 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel) vs. Carolina Hurricanes
The Oilers come into this game against the Hurricanes on a four-game losing streak, so the tension will be high in the Oilers forwards ranks to break the streak. As of now, Leon Draisaitl ranks out second in the FantasyLabs Ceiling Projections for this slate (on DraftKings) but is only 1.8 points behind Conner McDavid for the top spot. Draisaitl’s price is $800 cheaper than McDavid’s on DraftKings as well, where he makes for a very nice bargain.
Typically when the gap in salary gets too wide between the Oilers’ star players, the play for DFS purposes is to just play the cheaper one, and that’s what I like doing here. Pretty much every big-name player on the slate is in a tough matchup today, but as we’ve seen with Edmonton’s big guns all season, they account for so much of the Oilers offense that fading them based on matchups isn’t really a profitable long-term move. Draisaitl ranks out well here and has 12 points in his last 10 games.
Build around him with confidence tonight.
Top Value
Tyler Seguin ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) at San Jose Sharks
It’s strange to discuss the Stars without mentioning Tyler Seguin much, but the former second-overall pick has been surpassed by Dallas’ younger players on the depth chart. Seguin is still a vital cog for Dallas, though, and still has great offensive capabilities, which makes him an intriguing value now that his price is down in the low $4,000-$5,000 range on both major sites.
Dallas still tends to run three balanced scoring lines, and while their top-line has handled a lot of the production for them of late, the balance is shifting a bit. Seguin has two goals in his last four games now and is still playing over 17 minutes a game, with some solid special teams exposure.
He rates out highly in the FantasyLabs Model with the fifth-best Ceiling Projection making him a solid deep value here.
Wing
Top Play
Kirill Kaprizov ($7,500 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel) @ L.A. Kings
After a slow start, the Wild’s Kirill Kaprizov is finally starting to get some recognition for being one of the most elite fantasy players in the league. The winger comes into this game now with 17 points in his last 10 games and has averaged a stout 3.6 shots on net over that span too. Kaprizov may not quite be the goal scorer that his Russian counterpart Alex Ovechkin is, who is also on this slate in a great matchup, but he matches or even exceeds him in point production of late and comes at a far lesser price.
Kaprizov rates out first in the Player Ratings in the FantasyLabs Projected Points Model today on DraftKings. He rates out in the top percentile of players at his position in shot attempts for the last month. With plenty of other elite options to pay for at other positions today, taking the slight discount here on DraftKings makes sense.
A Wild stack with Kaprizov on FanDuel will likely go overlooked, too, as his price there is much higher.
Top Value
Dustin Brown ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Wild
On the other side of this Wild game, we can get good value by targeting the Kings forwards, who are all priced down given the matchup with Minnesota. The Wild are obviously in the midst of an eight-game win streak, but the Kings have played well of late, and Dustin Brown continues to play solid minutes for them in a top-line role. The veteran rates out in the top10 in Player Ratings on DraftKings today, where he’s also a huge bargain and is trending in the top 10% in shot attempts and shots on goal in the Fantasy Pro Trends over the last month (at wing).
Brown is less of a bargain on FanDuel today, but, like Kaprizov, stacking this game there will get you low ownership on two offenses who have been very productive of late. Brown’s a good value any way you slice it and rates well today in the projections.
Defense
Top Play
Zach Werenski ($7,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel) at Seattle Kraken
The Blue Jackets offense has gone a little cold of late, but they get a great matchup today against the Seattle Kraken to get back on track. One of the most consistent performers on the Jackets this year has been defenseman Zach Werenski who comes into this game ranked in the top 5% in time on ice and Corsi Ratings for his position over the last month, via the FantasyLabs Pro Trends Tool.
Werenski is still playing big minutes on special teams for the Jackets, where he’s grabbed seven of his 17 points this year and will be in a good spot to cash in for a potential multi-point night given the state of the Kraken goaltenders. He rates out first in Player Ratings at defense today for play on FanDuel, where his price is a virtual gift at under $6,000.
He’s less of a must-play on DraftKings, but a Blue Jackets PP1 stack isn’t out of the question there either, given the cheap prices on their forwards and the opponent on tap.
Top Value
Keith Yandle ($3,100 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) @ Arizona Coyotes
The Flyers have not played well of late, but they are facing off against a team with potentially even more issues than them. The Coyotes still feature a bottom-five penalty-kill, and Philadelphia is coming off a win against the Golden Knights where their powerplay was able to cash in with two goals.
Keith Yandle is back on the top powerplay unit for the Flyers, and he cashed in with two points last night. This may feel like chasing points a bit, but Yandle has been a powerplay specialist for most of his career and gets a great matchup to keep his point streak rolling. In terms of value, stacking him with one or more of the Flyers forwards isn’t going to cost you much on either site as well and will certainly help keep your costs down.
Yandle’s a great value here and rates out in the top 10 in Player Ratings on FantasyLabs today.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Cam Talbot ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel) at Los Angeles Kings
The Wild enter this game with the Kings on an eight-game win streak and are -151 road favorites which tells you what the general perception is between these teams — and how much better the Wild potentially are. This all makes for a good spot to deploy the Wild’s goaltender for DFS purposes, especially on DraftKings, where Cam Talbot is available at under $8,000. Talbot has played very well of late and recorded a save percentage of .929 or better in each of his last six games for the Wild.
Talbot ranks out second in the Player Ratings for DraftKings play today, where he’s the slightly better bargain, but there really shouldn’t be much fear to spend up for him on FanDuel, where the Wild players are all priced more expensive and will bring lower ownership.
Keep rolling with Minnesota and Talbot in net until this streak ends.
Top Value
Jacob Markstrum ($7,900 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) vs. Boston Bruins
We have an elite goalie in a tough matchup here, which makes it a good spot to potentially get him for bargain prices. Jacob Markstrom rates out with a 75% Bargain Rating today for play on FanDuel, where he’s a true value at just $7,500. He does rate out in the top six in Player Ratings on both sites and figures to be lower rostered across the industry.
Obviously, we don’t want to make a habit out of targeting the Bruins offense, but Markstrom brings a .936 save percentage into this game, and the Flames are relatively strong home favorites here at -139 in the moneyline odds currently.
He’s a solid value to build around in GPPs today.
Notable Stack
Maple Leafs L1 – Auston Matthews – Ondrej Kase – Michael Bunting
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
If you’re looking for a nice value stack, the Leafs’ first line is available for quite cheap today on DraftKings. Auston Matthews rated out third in Ceiling Projections in the FantasyLabs Model at center, and he’s easier to stack than the Oilers forwards given the cheapness of his wingers.
Ondrej Kase has been very productive of late for Toronto as he’s moved into a first-unit powerplay role and now has four points and two goals over his last three games. Pairing him and Matthews brings good correlation, but Michael Bunting has also been very productive considering his mainly regular strength role and has great correlation with Matthews too.
Bunting has 11 points now over his last 10 games and has been picking up points almost every night due to Matthews’ current hot streak. Keep targeting him and this line here as they rate out as a top option based on the overall Player Ratings in the FantasyLabs Stacking Tool today.
