The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a five-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Auston Matthews ($9,200 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel) vs. Calgary Flames
We are going back to the well with Auston Matthews on Friday’s DFS slates. Matthews isn’t the most expensive option at center, but based on our analysis, he has the most upside.
The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Calgary Flames on the second night of a back-to-back. The Flames elected to start primary goalie Jacob Markstrom on night one, meaning Dan Vladar gets the start against the Maple Leafs. Toronto has been effective on home ice this season, and Matthews has been a significant part of that offensive production. Matthews has an asinine 70.6% expected goals-for percentage at five-on-five, out-chancing his opponents 100-44 in scoring opportunities and 37-21 in quality chances. Those chances will be even more valuable against a subpar backup goalie.
Matthews’ on-ice PDO remains below 1.000 at five-on-five and across, implying his fantasy ceiling remains high. That’s reflected in our projections, which rate him as one of the best options on the slate.
Top Value
Vincent Trocheck ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Carolina Hurricanes’ center Vincent Trocheck is running hot right now, and he gets an ideal matchup against the defensively inept Philadelphia Flyers at home on Friday night.
Trocheck has recorded three points over this past two games and five over this last five. That makes it 11 points through the first 11 games of the season for the 28-year-old. Four of Trocheck’s 11 points have come on the powerplay, and he’s also got one game-winning goal under his belt this season. When we consider his other stats, Trocheck’s efforts have resulted in an average of 13.2 FanDuel Fantasy points per game.
The Canes’ second-line center is well-positioned to improve his fantasy standing against a Flyers team that gives up an average of 32.4 scoring and 14.0 high-danger chances per game as the visitors. Trocheck is a top value at center.
Wing
Top Play
Leon Draisaitl ($9,000 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
Whatever the Edmonton Oilers said to Leon Draisaitl six games ago worked. Draisaitl has been a man possessed over his recent set of games, and he’s set up for another strong showing Friday against the Buffalo Sabres.
Draisaitl has 14 points over his past six games, usurping teammate and powerplay partner Connor McDavid for the league lead in points. The big German has a 65.3% expected goals-for percentage, thanks in part to his 59.8% high-danger chances-for percentage. Across all strengths, the Oilers have out-scored their opponents 18-2 in high-danger chances with Drai on the ice.
The Sabres have given up 19 goals over their past four games and 10 or more high-danger chances in nine of their past 10. Draisaitl will make them pay for that shoddy defensive zone coverage and is our top play on the wing.
Top Value
Martin Necas ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Martin Necas emerged as an elite fantasy option last season, and he’s finding his rhythm over his recent sample of games.
The Hurricanes winger has four points over his past four outings, notching two game-winning goals and a powerplay assist. Necas is individually responsible for 24 shots, 21 scoring chances, and five high-danger opportunities this season. He’s been effective at scoring, which is reflected in Necas’s 12.5% shooting percentage, and he’s peppering goalies over his recent same, attempting 13 shots over his previous four games.
Like Trocheck, Necas’s fantasy value is reflected in the team he’s facing on Friday night, as the Flyers are notoriously bad defensively.
Defense
Top Play
Darnell Nurse ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
Two Oilers defensemen rank highly in our projections today, but we’re giving the edge to Darnell Nurse.
The Oilers 2013 first-round draft pick outpaces teammate Tyson Barrie in points, powerplay points, and ice time while doubling his shot total and blocking more shots. The advanced metrics also support Nurse as the more valuable option, as Nurse has a 56.2% expected goals-for percentage at five-on-five, compared to Barrie’s 40.1% rating. According to our projections, Nurse has 21 Pro Trends working in his favor and has a higher ceiling projection than his counterpart.
Nurse gets deployed under any circumstance, and his metrics continue to thrive. We include him as our option on defense, against a stumbling Sabres team.
Top Value
Jake Muzzin ($3,700 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel) vs. Calgary Flames
Jake Muzzin’s fantasy value has climbed in each of the past three games, and based on our projections, we should expect that upward trend to continue tonight against the Flames.
As noted, tonight’s situation favors the Maple Leafs, but Muzzin also has several factors working in his favor. Muzzin remains well off his goals-for pace, posting an expected value of 54.1% at five-on-five, with actual output of 36.4%. As expected, that has resulted in a deflated PDO, which is third-worst on the Leafs. Lastly, Muzzin’s relative five-on-five metrics are all above 50.0%, despite him getting only 46.9% of his starts in the offensive zone. That’s the sign of a great defenseman, starting in your own end most of the time and still out-chancing your opponents.
Muzzin has a ton of upside skating with the skilled forwards of the Leafs, but his own metrics support we should see increased output from him over the coming games.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Frederik Andersen ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) vs. Phildelphia Flyers
The Carolina Hurricanes have the best points percentage in the NHL, and part of that is due to the play of Frederik Andersen.
Andersen has a league-leading 1.73 goals-against average and is stopping 93.9% of shots faced. The Danish netminder’s advanced breakdown is stunning. Andersen is stopping 94.3% of even-strength chances, 87.0% of high-danger chances, and 86.5% of powerplay shots, resulting in 7.4 goals saved above average.
The Canes are at home tonight, where Andersen has a 95.4% save percentage and is a perfect 4-0-0. He’s the top play between the pipes.
Top Value
Marc-Andre Fleury ($8,400 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
Don’t look now, but Marc-Andre Fleury is playing like he wants out of Chicago. Fleury’s two wins have come over his past four games, and he gets an ideal start against the Arizona Coyotes tonight.
The veteran netminder has posted a 95.5% save percentage or better in three of his past five, allowing a combined four goals across those three games. Those metrics are likely to continue against a Coyotes team that doesn’t have much offensive punch. Arizona has the fourth-worst expected goals-for rating at five-on-five and averages just 19.5 scoring and 7.4 high-danger chances per game on the road.
Granted, Fleury’s only a value play on FanDuel slates, but he’s worth streaming in an ideal matchup.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
Using Projected Points reveals some highly-rated lineup combinations for tonight’s slate, and there are many directions you can go. The Oilers and Hawks have several combos near the top of the list, but we elected to go with the Leafs stack.
The goaltending matchup against Vladar favors the Leafs, and they have several players due for progression. As noted, Matthews is our top play and center and is the cornerstone to tonight’s stack. Our favorite combination includes linemate and powerplay winger William Nylander. Nylander has seven points over his past five games, with four of those coming with the man advantage. We included Muzzin as our value play, and he remains a viable option if you are facing salary constraints. However, Morgan Reilly is the defenseman who has some of the best projections among Leafs’ defensemen and the d-man we included in our stack. Jack Campbell has been a stalwart for the Leafs this season and shouldn’t face an onslaught from a Flames team playing on the second night of a back-to-back.
The betting price on the Leafs continues to shift in their direction, highlighting the betting market confidence in the team. The Leafs are our notable stack for Friday’s slate.
