The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a five-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Patrice Bergeron ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
The Boston Bruins offense has been prolific in 2022, recording three or more goals in 12 of 14 games. Patrice Bergeron continues to drive the analytics bus for the Bruins but does not yet have the points to back up his performances. A date with the Arizona Coyotes could be what’s needed to help the dam burst open.
Across all strengths, Bergeron has the best expected goals-for rating on the Bruins. The four-time Selke Trophy winner has been on the ice for the third-most scoring and high-danger chances, despite starting just 55.9% of his shifts in the offensive zone. Bergeron shows signs of a breakout performance, recording 29 total shots over his past six games, but scoring just one goal.
The 36-year-old is well off his career average in shooting percentage, and we’re expecting him to see meaningful progression over his coming games.
Top Value
Joel Eriksson Ek ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel) vs. New York Rangers
No team has been hotter than the Minnesota Wild recently, with the Wild scoring 27 goals over their last five games. Minny has the metrics to support ongoing success, and we’re expecting Joel Eriksson Ek to feature more prominently in the scoring.
Even when Eriksson Ek doesn’t find his way onto the scoresheet, he still manages to make solid fantasy contributions with the number of shots he directs on target. The Swedish-born center has recorded 11 shots over his past two games, going north of four shots in 10 of 13. He thrives in the attacking zone, leading the team in on-ice high-danger chances per game across all strengths.
Eriksson Ek is a buy-low candidate against the New York Rangers, who are due for a big letdown. We’re not passing him up on Friday’s docket.
Wing
Top Play
Gabriel Landeskog ($6,200 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Gabriel Landeskog’s salary on DK slates almost qualifies him as a value play tonight against the Blackhawks. Nevertheless, he remains one of the top options available on the wing.
The Colorado Avalanche continue to impress offensively. The Avs have attempted at least ten high-danger chances across all strengths in eight straight games. They will likely be without top-line center Nathan MacKinnon on Friday night, meaning someone will have to step up to replace his production.
Based on our algorithm, we’re expecting that to be Landeskog. The veteran winger leads the team in expected goals-for percentage and comes into tonight’s contest on a three-game point streak. He’ll have a chance to improve those metrics against a Hawks team that has allowed four or more goals in three of their past four outings.
Top Value
Lucas Raymond ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Unexpectedly, Lucas Raymond has been better on the road than at home in his rookie season. The former first-round selection is nearly a point-per-game player on the road this season, putting up 19 points through his first 20 games. Still, he comes into tonight’s action with a discounted salary on both DFS platforms.
Raymond ranks third on the Detroit Red Wings with an expected goals-for rating of 52.6%, leading the forwards’ corps in on-ice scoring and high-danger chances. The Wings continue to set Raymond up for success, starting him in the attacking zone 67.2% of the time, the second-most on the team.
The metrics support that Raymond is due for a breakout performance, as the young winger has put shots on target in 10 of his past 11 starts, recording just one goal over that span. Raymond’s shooting percentage has bottomed out and should start working its way back up.
Defense
Top Play
Cale Makar ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Cale Makar is a cheat code. The Avs’ defenseman leads the team in on-ice scoring and high-danger chances, putting up 41 points through his first 37 games of the season. Like Landeskog, he’s in an ideal position to improve his metrics against an inferior Hawks.
The Avs’ offense runs through Makar on the backend. The 23-year-old ranks fourth on the team in scoring, leading the way in powerplay assists, and is responsible for the first pass out of the defending zone for Colorado’s dynamic offense. On average, Makar spends over four minutes per game on the powerplay, giving him every advantage he needs to improve his gaudy scoring metrics.
Makar has points in three of his past four, putting ten shots on target and recording five blocks over that stretch. As usual, he projects as a top option on defense.
Top Value
Matt Dumba ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel) vs. New York Rangers
There are several value plays on the backend worthy of inclusion on Friday night’s slate. However, we like Matt Dumba to reach his fantasy ceiling against the Rangers.
Dumba remains a minutes-eater for the Wild. The 27-year-old leads the Wild in ice-time, averaging 23:38 a night, using that time to accumulate fantasy points on both ends of the ice. Dumba ranks second on the team in blocked shots, second among defensemen in points, and first among d-men in shots, all while starting more often in his defensive zone than in the attacking zone.
Points come in bunches for Dumba, and he’s been limited to just three over his past ten outings. We’re expecting increased output from him over his coming games, starting tonight against the Rangers.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Tuukka Rask ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
Things are off to a rocky start for Tuukka Rask. The Finnish netminder returned from an off-season hip surgery this month but is having a hard time getting re-acclimated to the rigors of the NHL. A date with the Coyotes should help Rask get back on track.
Arizona has been one of the worst teams in the league, yet somehow their metrics have worsened over their recent sample. The Coyotes have attempted five or fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five in three of their past four games and 24 or fewer scoring opportunities in all four. Shots have been even more sparse, with the Coyotes attempting 18 or fewer at five-on-five in all but one of their past eight.
Those concerning offensive metrics are a good sign for Rask, as he looks to improve his save percentage and help the Bruins get back in the win column. Rask’s metrics remain well off career norms, and the Bruins’ tender should see improved stats over his coming games.
Braden Holtby ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) vs. Washington Capitals
Once again, Braden Holtby is undervalued on the DFS slates. Holtby has an identical $7,500 salary on both platforms and should continue his recent hot streak against the Washington Capitals.
Holtby enters Friday night’s contest amid a three-game winning streak while seeing an uptick in his save percentage over his recent sample. The former Vezina winner has stopped 93.5% of shots or more in two of his previous four starts, including stopping 36 of 37 last time out against the New Jersey Devils.
The narrative has written itself for tonight’s contest. This is a classic revenge spot for Holtby, as he faces off against his former club for the first time since leaving. Holtby projects as a value play on tonight’s docket and could exceed his implied value.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
We’re building off a pair of previously mentioned players for today’s notable stack. The Boston Bruins have been one of the hottest clubs in the NHL this season, and they project as a top stacking option against the Arizona Coyotes.
As noted, Patrice Bergeron is a top option up the middle and should see his fantasy value improve tonight against the Desert Dogs. This season, Brad Marchand has put up similar metrics to Bergeron, ranking near the top of the Bruins’ advanced analytics. His success correlates well with Bergeron, as Marchand skates next to him on the first line and top powerplay unit. They are joined on special teams by Charlie McAvoy, the team’s leading scorer on defense, recording two assists last time out. With Tuukka Rask the projected starter, he is included in our stack, as we expect improved performances from him, starting tonight against the Coyotes.
The betting market reflects our confidence in our Bruins stack tonight, as Boston enters the contest as -300 favorites.
