The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday has an eight-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
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Top Play
Mika Zibanejad ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel) vs. Carolina Hurricanes
It’s tough to argue with results, and those are going the New York Rangers way over their recent sample. The Broadway Blueshirts have scored three or more in eight of their past 10 games and should continue to pour things on against the Carolina Hurricanes.
Mika Zibanejad is leading the way for the Rangers, pacing the forwards in most production metrics. Across all strengths, the 28-year-old leads Rangers forwards in on-ice scoring chances and shots while ranking in high-danger chances. Zibanejad has been effective over his recent sample, recording at least a point in six straight games and averaging 17.4 fantasy points per game.
The Rangers offense runs through Zibanejad, and he projects as one of the best options on Friday’s slate.
Top Value
Tyler Seguin ($4,900 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Red Wings
Dallas Stars centerman Tyler Seguin is coming off a two-point performance against the Montreal Canadiens. Based on our projections, he’s expected to continue his upward trend against the Detroit Red Wings.
Analytically, Seguin is a progression candidate over his coming games. The former first-round pick ranks sixth on the Stars with an expected goals-for rating of 57.2%; however, his actual rating is substantially worse as Seguin has an actual goals-for rating of 49.3% with a 0.975 PDO.
In reconciling Seguin’s output with production metrics, it’s evident that the Stars second-line center should see continue to have some puck luck in finding the scoresheet.
Wing
Top Play
Bryan Rust ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
The Pittsburgh Penguins are in a favorable betting spot on Friday night, playing against the Columbus Blue Jackets, who are on the second night of a back-to-back. The Pens offense will be ready to take advantage, and top-line winger Bryan Rust projects as a top-option.
Rust benefits from skating next to Sidney Crosby on the Pens’ top line and powerplay unit. Six of Rust’s 20 points have come on the man advantage, but more impressively, the two-time Stanley Cup winner has recorded 13 points over his past five outings, including two apples against the Ottawa Senators last night.
Rust is playing like a man-possessed, averaging 32.7 fantasy points over his past five games. We’re expecting that to continue against a Jackets team that has allowed three or more goals in six of their previous eight games.
Top Value
Brock Boeser ($4,700 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel) vs. Florida Panthers
It’s worth noting that Brock Boeser’s value is much more pronounced on DK slates. Nevertheless, the Vancouver Canucks are in an ideal spot on Friday night and will be ready to take advantage of a tired Florida Panthers squad.
Friday night’s contest will be the Panthers’ second night of a back-to-back and third game in four nights. The Panthers are hemorrhaging chances in the first two games of the sample, allowing at least 30 scoring and 11 high-danger opportunities in both games. Fatigue and goaltending will factor into Friday night’s contest, and the Canucks recent performances support sustained output against the Panthers.
Boeser’s underlying metrics indicate that he’s due for a breakout performance. The winger has put 17 shots on target over his past five games, registering just two points. We’re expecting him to reach his fantasy ceiling on Friday night.
Defense
Top Play
Kris Letang ($7,300 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Bryan Rust isn’t the only Penguins player enjoying a hot streak. He’s joined by Kris Letang, who is riding a 10-game point streak into Friday night’s affair.
Letang has been an unstoppable force for the Pens this season, averaging nearly a point-per-game while being deployed under any circumstance. The veteran rearguard is the Penguins on-ice leader in shots, scoring chances, and high-danger opportunities while putting up a 58.9% expected goals-for rating.
The Pens offense has been operating efficiently, recording four or more goals in six of their past nine. Letang will be doing what he can to extend that streak against the Blue Jackets.
Top Value
Mark Giordano ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Blues
The Seattle Kraken remain progression candidates as they continue to underachieve relative to their metrics as a team. Their situation as a team is analogous to Mark Giordano’s as an individual, as the former Norris trophy winner is operating below expected levels.
So far this season, Giordano has recorded a 44.9% expected goals-for rating, despite posting 55.9% scoring chance and 60.5% high-danger ratings. Across all strengths, Giordano has an on-ice shooting percentage of 9.0%, contributing to a laughable 0.967 PDO.
As Giordano’s stock rises, so does the Kraken’s. They’ll be in a position to take advantage of the St. Louis Blues, who have posted a 41.4% expected goals-for rating over their past four games, getting outplayed in every contest.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Ilya Sorokin ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) vs. Arizona Coyotes
New York Islanders netminder Ilya Sorokin is coming off two superb outings, in which he’s stopped 94.9% of shots. He’ll have a chance to continue that hot streak against the offensively-challenged Arizona Coyotes.
The Coyotes have been limited to 18 or fewer scoring and seven or fewer high-danger chances in four of their past five, averaging just 16.4 and 6.6 opportunities per game, respectively. That’s unlikely to improve against the Islanders’ stout defense, allowing Sorokin to continue his strong play.
The Russian netminder has terrific home splits, stopping 93.6% of shots and posting a 1.97 goals-against average. Yet, Sorokin has only four wins in eight starts. We’re expecting more good results to follow the uptick in his metrics.
Marc-Andre Fleury ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) vs. Minnesota Wild
Marc-Andre Fleury is playing like he wants out of Chicago. The reigning Vezina Trophy winner has won four of his past five while stopping 95.6% of shots.
This season, the Blackhawks have been better at home, allowing nine or fewer high-danger chances in three of their past five. The Minnesota Wild don’t have an excellent track record offensively over their recent sample, being limited to seven or fewer high-danger chances in five of their past seven. Those ineffective metrics are contributing to expected goals-for ratings below 50.0% in nine of their past 11 contests.
Chicago has the upper hand tonight, and that should allow Fleury to continue his stellar play at a discounted salary.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
The Carolina Hurricanes have several lineup combinations that rate highly in our projections, and we’re highlighting them as our notable stack on Friday’s docket.
The Canes are getting their offense working, attempting ten or more high-danger chances at five-on-five in three straight games. That means plenty of scoring opportunities for their top line that features Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen. Aho has points in 10 of his past 12 games, totaling six goals and 13 assists over that stretch. Aho’s play is being elevated by Teravainen, who has 15 points over the same span. Carolina is getting support on the backend from Tony Deangelo, coming off a three-point performance, giving him points in five of his previous six games. Frederik Andersen is the projected starter and is worth including in any Canes stack. Andersen continues to flourish with the Canes, going 20-6-0 and stopping 93.0% of shots.
Carolina opened in the -160 range and has been bought up to -210. Our projections reflect that confidence, as the Hurricanes rank as one of the best stacking options against the New York Rangers.
