The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a six-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Sebastian Aho ($7,700 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Things are looking up for Sebastian Aho and the Carolina Hurricanes as they take on the Columbus Blue Jackets on Friday night. Aho has been terrific over his recent stretch and should continue his strong play against an inferior Jackets team.
We’ve seen an increase in production from Aho over his recent sample. The 24-year-old has five points during a four-game point streak, delivering 11 shots on net over his last three games. The Finnish centerman is an elite offensive producer, ranking first on the Canes in on-ice high-danger attempts while individually responsible for 96 across all strengths.
Aho has a chance to shine against the Jackets, a team that has given up at least 10 quality chances in five of their past six at five-on-five. Our analysis aligns with our algorithm, projecting Aho as a top play at center tonight.
Top Value
Ryan O’Reilly ($5,300 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
Generally, top-line centermen come at a higher salary than what we’re seeing from Ryan O’Reilly on Friday night. The St. Louis Blues forward has an elite ceiling, coming in undervalued in salary, making him a value play on both platforms.
O’Reilly is in a unique position as a centerman for a top scoring line, getting most of his starts in the defending zone. Still, the former Conn Smythe trophy winner adds value at both ends of the ice, spending nearly as much time on the penalty kill as he does on the powerplay. The veteran forward is coming off a three-shot, two-block performance last time out, illustrating his fantasy value on both ends of the ice.
The Sabres have given up 14 or more high-danger chances at five-on-five in three of five, setting O’Reilly up for another elite outing against an underwhelming Sabres team.
Wing
Top Play
Patrick Kane ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) vs. New Jersey Devils
It’s not every day that we get to be excited about the Chicago Blackhawks, but today is one of those days. The Hawks host the New Jersey Devils on the second night of a back-to-back, which means big things should be coming from Patrick Kane.
Kaner has been one of the few bright spots on an otherwise disappointing Hawks team. The 33-year-old leads the Hawks in scoring, with 49 points through 48 games. We should anticipate increased output from Kane over his coming games, as his on-ice PDO across all strengths is 0.982, and his season shooting percentage of 7.2% is well below his career average of 11.7%.
Kane has points in five of his past six outings, recording seven total points across that stretch. He rates as an elite winger on tonight’s slate and is included as a top play.
Top Value
Valeri Nichushkin ($4,400 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel) vs. Winnipeg Jets
The Colorado Avalanche’s top line that typically features Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, and Mikko Rantanen gets a lot of attention, and rightfully so. However, that’s creating more ideal matchups for Valeri Nichushkin and the Avs’ second line.
The Russian winger skates next to Colorado’s top point-getter, Nazem Kadri, and is due for increased output. Nichushkin has shots on net in 25 straight games and has multi-shot efforts in 13 straight games. Over that stretch, Nichushkin is averaging 3.1 shots per game but has recorded only 10 points while being held off the scoresheet in six of those contests.
Points seem to come in bunches for Nichushkin, and we’re anticipating a strong showing from him against the Winnipeg Jets.
Defense
Top Play
Dougie Hamilton ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
New Jersey Devils defenseman Dougie Hamilton has elite production metrics but hasn’t been able to translate that elite scoring this season. We’re expecting growth from Hamilton over his coming games, starting tonight against the Hawks.
Hamilton has directed four or more shots on target in five of his past six games, recording just four points over that span. That stretch is analogous to his bad puck luck overall this season, as Hamilton has a 0.972 PDO and has an actual goals-for rating below expected. Those metrics imply that Hamilton is a progression candidate, as output catches up to production.
The Hawks don’t have a good track record at limiting goals this season, and that’s evident over their recent sample. Chicago has allowed five or more goals in three of their past five, meaning Hamilton could reach his fantasy ceiling on Friday.
Top Value
Nate Schmidt ($2,800 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel) vs. Colorado Avalanche
This could be the value play of the season, at least on DraftKings. Winnipeg Jets rearguard Nate Schmidt carries a paltry $2,800 salary on tonight’s slate and should easily surpass his implied fantasy value against the Avalanche.
Analytically, Schmidt rates as one of the Jets’ best defensemen. The 30-year-old leads the defensive corps in expected goals-for rating, thanks in part to his on-ice rankings in scoring and high-danger chances, sitting fifth on the team in both categories. The Jets deploy Schmidt on their second powerplay unit, helping him get 58.6% of his starts in the attacking zone.
Colorado’s defense is starting to show cracks, giving up 48 combined high-danger chances over their past three games. The Jets offense will be ready to exploit those inefficiencies, helping Schmidt exceed his salary value on Friday.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Frederik Andersen ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Frederik Andersen has had a resurgent season with the Carolina Hurricanes. The Danish netminder is tied for the league lead in wins, posting the fifth-ranked goals-against average among qualified goalies and the third-ranked save percentage. He’s in a good spot to improve those stats against the Columbus Blue Jackets.
The Canes have wielded home-ice advantage unmercifully this season, posting the fourth-best points percentage in the league. A big part of that success can be attributed to Andersen, who is 12-3-1 at home while stopping 92.5% of shots. We’re anticipating another above-average performance against a Jackets’ squad that has been limited to nine or fewer quality chances and 27 or fewer shots at five-on-five in seven of their past nine.
According to our projections, Andersen projects as a top option between the pipes.
John Gibson ($7,700 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Kings
The Los Angeles Kings have been one of the worst offensive teams in the league this season, and that benefits John Gibson and the Anaheim Ducks tonight.
The Kings sit second-last in shooting percentage, contributing to their standing in the bottom half of the league in scoring. Those issues could be compounded against Gibson, who has been lights out at home this season. The American tendy has a 92.6% save percentage at home this season, posting a 2.18 goals-against average. That has helped the Ducks to a 14-8-4 record as the hosts and sets them up for success again tonight.
In reconciling our projections with salary information off both DFS platforms, Gibson is undervalued on tonight’s slate, making him a value play in net.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
Several combinations of Carolina Hurricanes players feature highly in our lineup builder, and we’re highlighting one of the top projections as our notable stack.
Offensively, the Hurricanes are led by Sebastian Aho and Andrei Svechnikov. The forwards skate together on the Canes’ top line and powerplay unit, meaning their fantasy success correlates well together. On the backend, Jaccob Slavin has been an invaluable contributor at both ends of the ice. Slavin ranks sixth in team scoring while also pacing the Canes in blocked shots. Their defensive zone is solidified by the play of Frederik Andersen, who has been one of the best goalies in the league this season.
Betting confidence is high on the Hurricanes as they enter tonight’s matchup against the Blue Jackets as -360 favorites.
