The NHL DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday has a six-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Note: Projections may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Center
Top Play
Sidney Crosby ($8,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
The Buffalo Sabres started Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen on the first night of their back-to-back, leaving Malcolm Subban as the projected starter today. That could mean big things are coming from Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Once again, Crosby has been one of the Pens’ best players, posting a 60.6% expected goals-for rating this season. Crosby started off slow, but his output is finally starting to catch up with production. The two-time Hart Trophy winner has recorded nine points over his previous five games, but his on-ice PDO remains marginally below average at 0.998. That means we could continue to see increased production from him as he continues to drive Pittsburgh’s offense.
Subban looked out of his element in his only start this season, and things won’t get much easier tonight. Crosby is one of the best options on tonight’s slate.
Top Value
Kirby Dach ($3,300 DraftKings, $4,300 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Chicago Blackhawks center Kirby Dach has been productive this season but remains below expected values. We could see some meaningful progression from him over his coming games, and that could start tonight against the Nashville Predators.
Dach has been one of the most productive Hawks players this season, ranking third on the team in scoring chances and high-danger opportunities. The third-year center has translated that to 12 points in 28 games but should see increased output while playing on the team’s second powerplay unit and getting 68.1% of his starts in the attacking zone.
The Preds are playing on the second night of a back-to-back, putting Dach in a good position to reach his fantasy ceiling.
Wing
Top Play
Alex Ovechkin ($9,600 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel) vs. Winnipeg Jets
The Washington Capitals are traveling to Winnipeg for an inter-conference battle with the Jets. The Jets have struggled with defensive zone coverage, and that could mean another solid outing from Alex Ovechkin.
Ovi remains one of the best in the league, putting up an expected goals-for percentage of 63.8% season. His volume of chances puts him in elite company, as the future Hall of Famer has been on the ice for 347 scoring chances and 126 high-danger opportunities, ranking first and second on the team, respectively. The Great Eight has recorded points in 10 of the past 11 games, totaling 20 points over that span.
The Jets have given up 10 or more high-danger chances in five of their past six games, with opponents averaging 14.7 quality chances per game. Ovi will be ready to capitalize on Friday night.
Top Value
Kasperi Kapanen ($3,500 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
Riding shotgun on Crosby’s line is Kasperi Kapanen, who will be ready to take advantage of an ideal matchup on Friday night.
Kapanen has recorded points in two of his past three games while putting shots on net in seven straight games. The 25-year-old has strong relative metrics, posting a scoring chance rating of 60.1% and a high-danger rating of 57.3%, starting 75.2% of his shifts in the offensive zone.
The Pens will deploy their top line in the attacking zone as much as possible on home ice. With Subban in net, that should lead to increased scoring for Kapanen and the Penguins.
Defense
Top Play
Roman Josi ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel) vs. Chicago Blackhawks
The Predators offense has been operating efficiently over their recent sample, and they should continue that momentum against the Blackhawks on Friday night.
Nashville has attempted 10 or more quality chances in five of their past six games, and Roman Josi continues to be a primary contributor. Josi leads the team in scoring, recording 28 points in 29 games, and has some of the best metrics on the team. Josi is far and away the most productive player, being on the ice for 396 scoring chances, nearly 100 more than the next closest player, and 123 high-danger chances, which is on pace with some of the best offensive players in the league.
The Hawks have struggled with defensive zone coverage at times this season; Josi and the Preds can continue their recent strong performances on tonight’s slate.
Top Value
John Klingberg ($4,100 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Blues
At times it can feel daunting trying to figure out which Dallas Stars’ defenseman is the best option for a strong outing. Based on our projections, John Klingberg is the guy tonight.
Klingberg has the best projections among Stars’ defensemen on tonight’s slate and carries an affordable $4,100 salary. From an advanced perspective, Klingberg is a progression candidate. The veteran defender is below his expected goals-for rating, remaining a go-to option for the Stars. Klingberg does it all, blocking shots, putting shots on target, and playing across all strengths.
Klingberg has put up below-average fantasy performances in five of his past seven outings, making him a progression candidate over his coming games.
Goalies
Be sure to check the Starting Goalie Page throughout the day to see which goalies are confirmed starters.
Top Play
Tristan Jarry ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) vs. Buffalo Sabres
Penguins goalie Tristan Jarry continued his stellar play in his last outing. He remains a top play against a Sabres team playing on the second night of a back-to-back, with travel.
Jarry has been on a tear recently, going 8-1-1 over his past 10 starts and stopping 95.7% of shots over that span. The Pens are doing their part to help Jarry, allowing nine or fewer high-danger chances in four of their previous six and 23 or fewer scoring chances in five of six.
This season, the Sabres average 8.2 quality chances on the second night of a back-to-back, facilitating another strong outing from Jarry on home ice.
Braden Holtby ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) vs. St. Louis Blues
Not that there was much doubt at this stage, but the starter’s crease is Braden Holtby’s after the Stars waived Anton Khudobin earlier this week.
Holtby has rediscovered his form in Dallas, posting 92.3% save percentage and 4.6 goals saved above average. That improved effort is also reflected in his recent outings, as Holtby has posted above-average save percentages in four of his past six starts. Part of the appeal tonight is that the Stars matchup against a St. Louis Blues squad that has been outplayed in six of their past eight contests and is averaging just 8.6 high-danger chances over that span.
Granted, Holtby’s value is more pronounced on DK slates, but the veteran netminder should reach his fantasy ceiling regardless.
Notable Stack
With Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into our DFS lineups for tournaments.
If you sift through our lineup builder, you will find a number of Penguins’ stacks that rate highly in our projections. We’re highlighting our favorite combination for tonight’s slate.
As noted above, we’ve seen improved play from Sidney Crosby over his recent sample, leading to increased output, and have included the Pens top center in our stack. Kasperi Kapanen’s offensive success correlates well with Crosby’s as the forwards skate together on the top line. He’s an affordable wing option with tremendous upside. Defensively, we’ve aligned the Pens’ top line with Kris Letang. Letang is the complete package defensively, playing with offensive upside and defensive responsibility, adding value on both ends of the ice. Lastly, Jarry is the projected starter and should continue his strong play under ideal circumstances on Friday night.
Betting market confidence is also high on the Pens. Pittsburgh opened in the -280 range but have been bought up to nearly -325. It’s not just our projections that favor the Pens tonight.
