In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models
There are three tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Here’s where they place within our Week 9 Fantasy Rankings (as of Wednesday evening):
- Travis Kelce (1st)
- Dallas Goedert (5th)
- Tyler Conklin (15th)
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Tuesday
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Tight Ends
Travis Kelce ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (48.5 total)
Zeus has been reduced to a mere mortal the past five or so weeks, failing to top 20 DraftKings points since Week 3. It still speaks to how ridiculous of a fantasy player Kelce is that a 20-point DraftKings bar seems reasonable. He’s averaging just under 13 DraftKings points per game over the past month. That’s more than any other tight end besides Mark Andrews is averaging on the season, but it still feels disappointing for Kelce.
The entire Chiefs offense has been inefficient by their standards this season as Mahomes averaging a pedestrian 7.3 yards per attempt. No player has felt this more than Kelce, whose yards per target is at a career-low. He hasn’t seen the uptick in volume that Tyreek Hill has to account for it, either. Yet, with all of that said, He’s still the TE1 in PPR scoring on the season.
This week sets up to be a good one for the Chiefs to right the ship. The Packers have the 22nd-rated defense by DVOA in the league. They’ve also been vulnerable to tight ends, allowing 20 points to the Saints’ tight ends as a group as well as TJ Hockenson, plus an additional 17 to George Kittle (his best game of the season). Kansas City should look to Kelce more than usual this week, given the relative strengths of the Packers defense.
With the possible exception of Darren Waller, no tight end can match Kelce’s raw upside. This is the cheapest we’ve seen Kelce all year on FanDuel and tied for the cheapest on DraftKings. If we get vintage Kelce this week, he’ll be a must for lineups. Kelce leads all five of our FanDuel models, as well as the DraftKings Tournament Model this week.
Dallas Goedert ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (+1) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (50 total)
Goedert hasn’t broken out in the way some may have anticipated following the trade of Zach Ertz. He’s scored 25.2 combined DraftKings points in the two games as Philly’s only relevant tight end. That’s still an almost three-point uptick over his average with Ertz around, though, so we’re headed in the right direction.
One difficulty has been the Eagles’ shift to a run-first offense. Despite a 3-5 record, they rank in the bottom-10 in pass rate in the league. That makes it unlikely that Goedert will ever see Kelce or Waller-type volume for the Eagles. His seven targets last week against the Lions were a season-high.
He might not need that kind of volume to pay off, though. He’s second among tight ends (and 20th overall) in yards per reception this year, at 14.9. That’s just ahead of players like Cooper Kupp and Mike Williams for context on how impressive that is.
At that rate, even approaching double-digit targets would be enough for Goedert. The chances of that are better than usual this week against the Chargers. Both the Chargers and Eagles rank in the top five in the NFL in pace of play (outright and situation-neutral.) While the Chargers are tough against the pass generally (fourth in DVOA), they do allow a slightly positive Opponent Plus/Minus to tight ends.
Goedert is drastically underpriced on DraftKings this week, where he leads one of our Pro Models. He’s a solid option in cash games as well, thanks to his second-best Pts/Sal. His price on FanDuel is a bit too close to the better options to be in real consideration.
Tyler Conklin ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): Minnesota Vikings(+5.5) at Baltimore Ravens (49.5 total)
Like Goedert, Conklin is a much better play on DraftKings than FanDuel. This is generally the case with cheaper tight ends, thanks to a lower salary floor on DraftKings. On FanDuel, we can generally find the extra salary to jump up a tier to higher-ceiling players.
Anyway, Conklin leads three of our models on DraftKings, including the Cash Game model. Conklin is surprisingly one of the top 10 tight ends in targets per game this year. As we know, volume is king. Especially for cheaper players, it’s hard for them to fail at a price like Conklin’s with any amount of volume.
Conklin is also due for some efficiency regression. There are three tight ends (Conklin included) with exactly 297 receiving yards heading into Week 9. They have nine touchdowns between them — only one belongs to Conklin. Generally speaking, touchdowns regress towards yardage, not the other way around, so Conklin is due for a trip to the end zone.
It’s also a tremendous matchup for the Vikings pass-game in general, but Conklin specifically. The Ravens funnel opponents to the air, and the biggest beneficiaries of that have been tight ends. Wideouts have a negative Opponent Plus/Minus against Baltimore, but for tight ends, it’s a positive 3.2 (narrowly missing the best mark on the slate of 3.4).
Conklin already has a 20-point DraftKings game this season — and is coming off consecutive 10-point games. It’s baffling that DraftKings reduced his salary to its lowest level since Week 1, but here we are. Conklin has sneaky upside for tournaments and an extremely low chance of underwhelming his price for cash games this week.
Other Tight Ends With Week-Winning Upside
Darren Waller ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): Las Vegas Raiders (-3) at New York Giants (46.5 total)
Following the release of Henry Ruggs, Waller could be in for an expanded role moving forward. He’s used downfield quite a bit already, trailing only Kelce and Kyle Pitts on the season in air yards. Now, he’s arguably the Raiders’ best deep threat. Even if his role remains the same, Waller is always a threat to dominate the position on a weekly basis. He has five games of at least 29.5 DraftKings points over the past two seasons.
The Giants are a tough matchup for tight ends — with a -2.6 Opponent Plus/Minus at the position. However, Waller is not a typical tight end, with more than a third of his offensive snaps coming in the slot or split wide. Assuming he’s fully healthy after missing Week 8 with an injury, Waller is a solid play, with the slate’s second-highest Ceiling Projection.
If Waller is out again, Foster Moreau ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) will again be one of the top value options on the slate. Last week he hauled in six catches for 60 yards and a score in relief of Waller.
Mark Andrews ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-6) vs. Minnesota Vikings (49.5 total)
Pivoting to Andrews from Kelce saves you $1,500 on DraftKings this week, compared to only $700 on FanDuel. He’s also more expensive than Waller on FanDuel, but $700 cheaper on DraftKings. Needless to say, if targeting Andrews, DraftKings makes a lot more sense.
Andrews trails only Kelce and Waller in Median Projection this week and enters Sunday as the league’s No. 2 tight end in PPR scoring. While the Ravens aren’t anybody’s idea of a pass-first team, they’re airing it out more this year. Last year they threw at a league-low 44.96%. This year it’s over 54%. Much of that increase has gone to Andrews, who’s seeing an extra target per game over last year’s rate.
Kyle Pitts ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): Atlanta Falcons (+6) at New Orleans Saints (42 total)
While the Superdome is no longer the Coors Field of fantasy football, a game in New Orleans is still a nice setup for Pitts. With the Falcons as six-point underdogs, they’ll have to air the ball out at some point here. The Saints rank second in DVOA against the run, and Calvin Ridley (Personal) is out, so much of the offense will rely on Pitts.
We’ve seen Pitts’ ceiling already this year, with two 29-point (DraftKings) games in Weeks 5 and 7. Week 8 showed us his floor, with a 2/13/0 stat line against the Panthers. This makes Pitts very shaky for cash games but a great tournament option. We’re getting a discount in salary on both sites, and likely one in ownership too after last week’s performance.
Now’s the time to buy low on Pitts for DFS. Be sure to check out our Minimalist Tournament Model (under the Pro Models) tab once ownership projections are released. It combines ceiling and ownership to identify one-off DFS plays. Pitts will likely be near the top this week.
A Note on Value Tight Ends:
With Conklin already covered by the models, we’re forgoing the value plays section this week. With the exception of Moreau (should Waller miss), Conklin’s clearly the top option for saving money at the position. Goedert is similarly strong in the mid-range of salaries.
Those two are the clear leaders in Pts/Sal this week.
