In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models
There are three wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Here’s where they place within our Week 18 Fantasy Rankings (as of Wednesday):
- Cooper Kupp (1st)
- Justin Jefferson (2nd)
- Christian Kirk (18th)
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Wednesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday/Friday
- Running Backs on Friday/Saturday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp ($9,700 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) vs San Francisco 49ers (44.5 total)
As always, Kupp is the top receiver in our rankings and most of our Pro Models this week. With the exception of the Ryan Hodge Model, he leads each of our models on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Kupp is a true outlier this week. He’s one of a very limited number of top receivers who are both available to play on the main slate and play for a team that will still likely be going all out on Sunday. (His opponent for the week, Deebo Samuel, is the only other top-five receiver by PPR points to fit both criteria.)
The Rams can clinch the number two seed in the NFC – and two home games to start the playoffs – with a win against the 49ers. They could drop as far as the fifth spot with a loss, meaning they’ll be highly motivated in this one.
In addition to the team-based motivation, Kupp has some personal milestones on the line here as well. He’s 12 catches and 136 yards away from breaking single-season NFL records in both categories. It’s hard to say how much any individual team will care about such things, but still worth considering. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a couple of bubble screens thrown Kupp’s way late in a game that’s already decided if the record is at stake.
Despite his ridiculous salary, Kupp is a borderline must-play this week. His median projection on DraftKings is nearly seven points higher than the next best receiver – and a full dozen points higher than anybody else that I’m confident is going to even play on Sunday. You aren’t sneaking Kupp by anybody this week, but finding the salary to squeeze him in should be a top priority in almost all of your lineups.
Justin Jefferson ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) vs. Chicago Bears (44.5 total)
The aforementioned No. 2 receiver in terms of median projection this week is Jefferson, who we have projected well ahead of the non-Kupp field. Unlike Kupp, there’s reason to be concerned about the Vikings’ effort level in this one, as well as Jefferson’s participation.
On the one hand, coach Mike Zimmer doesn’t seem interested in using Week 18 to scout lesser-used players:
This is the coldest thing I’ve ever heard from a coach. My goodness. pic.twitter.com/0FaufxxoQw
— Ian Kenyon (@IanKenyonNFL) January 3, 2022
On the other hand, this is an entirely lost season for Minnesota. They didn’t appear to be especially interested in playing football last week in a 37-10 loss to the Packers, so it wouldn’t be a shock for that to continue against the Bears. It also wouldn’t make much sense to risk the health of Jefferson, arguably the most important player to Minnesota’s future currently on the roster.
All of which makes Jefferson a very interesting tournament play. (Though far too uncertain to consider for cash games.) The field is likely to be wary of him, creating a buy-low opportunity, at least from an ownership standpoint. He’s obviously ultra-talented, and at the moment, we expect him to have starting quarterback Kirk Cousins back this week. (Cousins missed last week due to COVID.) Jefferson has at least 20 DraftKings points in three of the last four games, with Cousins throwing him the ball.
Jefferson is a viable tournament pivot from Kupp in Week 18. He’s the only receiver with a ceiling projection anywhere near Kupp’s. In fact, he’s the only receiver with a ceiling projection higher than Kupp’s median. Beating Kupp’s raw score at a significantly lower salary and ownership would go a long way for tournament lineups.
Playing both Kupp and Jefferson together is also interesting. It’s very difficult from a salary standpoint – but that means you’d be competing with very few lineups if the pair both pop off for big games. Jefferson is the leader in our Hodge Model on DraftKings this week.
Christian Kirk ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (48 total)
Kirk almost fits the “Kupp criteria” laid out above this week. The Cardinals are in the same spot as the Rams from a motivation standpoint, as they could swap with Los Angeles for the two seed with a win and Rams loss. Kirk is also the de facto alpha receiver in Arizona as of late.
Since Week 15 (the Cardinals’ first game without DeAndre Hopkins), Kirk has led all Arizona receivers with 10 targets per game – no other Cardinals wideout is averaging even six. He and tight end Zach Ertz are serving as a poor man’s version of Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, amounting to over 50% of the team’s total targets in that span.
That puts him in a great position for volume against a Seahawks team that incentivizes opponents to throw the ball. Seattle ranks 27th in DVOA against the pass but eighth against the run. The Vegas data is also promising for Kirk. Arizona has a top-three implied team total on the slate this week, with this game having the highest total overall.
Kirk’s boxscore performance has failed to live up to his usage the past two weeks, but those games were against the strong defenses of the Cowboys and Colts. Against the Lions without Hopkins, Kirk posted a 9/94/1 line, which would be a tremendous score at his current salary. While Seattle isn’t as poor of a defense as Detroit is statistically, they’re pretty close. The Seahawks also have very little to play for here, so their effort level could be substandard.
Given the strength of Kupp (and Jefferson to a degree), it would be nice if we had a cheaper option popping in our models, but Kirk is a strong option nonetheless. He trails only those two in Pts/Sal on both sites.
Other Wide Receivers With Week-Winning Upside
As alluded to above, stud receivers are in extremely short supply. Ja’Marr Chase (who ranks behind Jefferson and Kirk in ceiling projection) will likely rest for some or all of Week 18. AJ Brown and Stefon Diggs are both on the right side of massive spreads. They could also sit if their games get out of hand (though both teams need to win their games).
Accordingly, this section will be more focused on “diamond in the rough” plays than true high-end score hunting this week.
Amon-Rs St. Brown ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (44.5 total)
The young Lions will likely continue to play at full strength in this one. It would be against coach Dan Campbell’s kneecap-biting ethos to take it easy, even in a meaningless week 18 game. St. Brown has been a revelation for Detroit down the stretch, catching at least eight passes in five straight games, even with Tim Boyle in at quarterback for two of them (the two highest-scoring games in that stretch as it were).
Boyle is expected to start again and has clear chemistry with St. Brown. St. Brown is quietly the WR2 in PPR scoring since the start of December, but still somewhat cheap in salary and has yet to have ownership over 9% on DraftKings. For the narrative inclined: Boyle is an ex-Packer, and St. Brown’s brother (Equanimeous) currently plays for Green Bay.
Michael Pittman ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel): Indianapolis Colts (-15.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (44 total)
The Colts have yet to punch their ticket to the playoffs but control their own destiny in Week 18. That means they’re likely to be running their usual offense with a heavy dose of Pittman. The Colts are certainly a run-first team, but that doesn’t mean Pittman can’t get it done against a league-worst Jaguars defense.
Expect the Jaguars (lead by interim coach Darrel Bevell) to still play hard in this one as they look to play spoiler. That might make the path of least resistance the passing attack – especially if the Colts try to preserve Jonathon Taylor to some extent. The massive spread isn’t ideal for the passing game, but Pittman could find an early score or two and still end up with a big day.
Green Bay Receivers (-4) vs. Detroit Lions (44.5 total)
With the Packers in command of the conference, our models project both Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers to sit out for Week 18. However, with the first-round bye secured, reports are that Rodgers will play at least part of Week 18. It’s likely that Adams and other Packers starters are in a similar boat. That makes trusting any of their receivers to have a big day tricky.
However, Allen Lazard ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) is an interesting option. He’s emerged over the past few weeks at the No. 2 option in the Packers attack. There are scenarios where Rodgers plays a half or so, but Adams (or oft-injured Marquez Valdez-Scantling) rests. That would open up looks for Lazard against a soft Lions secondary. The Packers will also likely play him at least some of the time in a true bench player game.
He’s one of only four receivers behind MVS and Adams on the Packers.
Bengals Receivers: Cincinnati Bengals (+6) at Cleveland Browns (38 total):
Cincinnati has already declared that Joe Burrow will be sitting out in Week 18, making it likely that their receiver triumvirate of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd will follow suit. At the very least, they’re likely to play a minimal role in Week 18. With preseason hero Auden Tate on IR, that leaves Mike Thomas, Trenton Irwin, and Stanley Morgan as the likely starters (or at the very least, most heavily used) receivers for Cincinnati.
All three are priced at the DraftKings (and at, or very near, the FanDuel) minimum.. It’s unlikely any of them have a huge game, but somebody has to catch a few passes here. Irwin was just recently activated from the COVID list, which leaves us with Thomas and Morgan as the likelier options. Thomas has been used the most this season, so he’s the best bet.
He’s worth a flier or two if multi-entering this week.
