In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models
There are six tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Here’s where they place within our Week 18 Fantasy Rankings (as of Thursday):
- Zach Ertz (5th)
- Hunter Henry (12th)
- John Bates (16th)
We’ll discuss why these six are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Tuesday
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Tight Ends
Zach Ertz ($5,300 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (48 total)
Zach Ertz should be a high-confidence play for Week 18. He would be a good play even if this were a normal week. It’s not a normal week, though, with plenty of teams having nothing to play for and resting starters. Fortunately, Arizona is not one of those teams – they need a win.
Ertz has a 26% target share since DeAndre Hopkins went down, which is higher than any tight end’s full-season mark. As referenced in the wide receiver article, Ertz and Christian Kirk have been less-talented versions of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce from a usage standpoint since Week 15. Ertz and Kirk account for over half of the team’s targets in that span.
Ertz has been a strong fantasy option in that span, though he’s yet to find a true ceiling game. Much of that has been due to his inability to score touchdowns, but we know there’s an element of randomness to that, particularly in Ertz’s case. Depending on which of our model’s red-zone stats you use, he ranks no worse than third among Week 18 tight ends in red-zone looks. (Our models include metrics for targets in the red zone in general, as well as within the 10 and five-yard lines.
Some of Ertz’s difficulty in the scoring department is beyond his control. Arizona’s offense has struggled to adapt to life after Hopkins, averaging less than 18 points per game. However, they scored 25 points last week against Dallas’ top-ranked (both overall and against the pass) defense by DVOA. Seattle ranks 25th and should provide more opportunity for the Cardinals (and thus, Ertz) to score touchdowns. Don’t believe me on any of this, though. Trust Vegas. They have the Cardinals with the fourth-best team total on the Week 18 main slate.
Seattle is also one of the friendliest tight end matchups in the league this season. They’re the softest against tight ends in Opponent Plus/Minus allowed on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week. They’ve allowed some crooked numbers to the position, including a 35-point FanDuel performance by George Kittle and a season-high 24.8 points from Ertz in the team’s first meeting. I’ve always maintained that tight end defense vs. position matters more than other positions, making this a situation to target.
Ertz is the unanimous leader in all of our FanDuel Models this week, where he stands out with a 98% Bargain Rating. He’s a good play on DraftKings, too, topping our Tournament Model there despite his (comparatively) elevated price.
Hunter Henry ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel): New England Patriots (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins (40 total)
Henry finds himself atop the Cash Game Model on DraftKings for Week 18. He’s a solid bargain there and has firmly established himself as the Patriots’ preferred receiving tight end. The Patriots have clinched a playoff spot, but could potentially find themselves as anywhere between the sixth and first seed, so this game matters for them.
Henry is the classic DraftKings tight end play this week. While he’s not quite as cheap as our traditional tight end punts, he’s still one of the cheaper (safe) options in an uncertain fantasy week. He’s drawn 19 targets over three games heading into this one.
It’s also a decent matchup against a Miami team that has had minor struggles with tight ends. Their pass defense is solid overall, but they’re the eighth easiest matchup by Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to the position. They’re one of the more difficult wide receiver matchups, so Patriots passing production is likelier than usual to head Henry’s way.
Henry is a moderate-volume play with a solid floor this week. As with most non-elite tight ends, most of his upside scenarios involve a touchdown or two. He has excelled in that regard this year, though. He has seven scores on the year, tied for fourth in the league. He’s done that on fewer targets than any other tight end with at least five.
Henry also accounts for a higher percentage of his team’s passing touchdowns than any tight end other than Mark Andrews, so his chances of finding the end zone are reasonably high this week.
John Bates ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel): Washington Football Team (-7) at New York Giants (38 total)
Forget what I said in the Henry section – Bates is the classic DraftKings punt this week. The one-time third-stringer now finds himself as the last man standing for Washington as they take on the Giants in a meaningless Week 18 clash.
Of course, this game isn’t meaningless to players like Bates – or his quarterback Taylor Heinicke. Both players are fighting for their NFL futures, and this is an opportunity to put good plays on film. He’s been…fine in limited action this year. Bates has functioned as the primary tight end thrice this year, catching eight of 11 targets.
That’s nothing to write home about, but he did manage an 18-point DraftKings game against the Cowboys on only three targets. The fourth-round rookie isn’t the type of athlete to wow you with big plays, though, so don’t expect fireworks with limited volume.
There’s not a ton that needs to be said about Bates. He’s super cheap and the clear starter for a quarterback who likes to target tight ends. He has the best Pts/Sal on DraftKings this week, where many of the lower-tier tight ends are priced up a bit (see Hunter Henry above.) On a slate with Cooper Kupp and Jonathon Taylor both standing out, saving every dollar possible could be crucial, though.
Bates leads three of our Pro Models on DraftKings.
Other Tight Ends With Week-Winning Upside
Mark Andrews ($7,500 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (41.5 total)
Both Baltimore and Pittsburgh are still alive for the playoffs, though their chances are slim. (Both teams require a Colts loss to the Jets, among other things.) That’s still enough that Andrews should play – and be used heavily – in this one. Andrews has had an epic end to the 2021 campaign, posting three straight games with at least 29.5 DraftKings points before a “disappointing” 14.9-point score last week.
Tellingly, those games all came without starter Lamar Jackson under center for the Ravens. (Though Andrews had a 44-point game in Week 5 with Jackson, he’d been quiet since.) It seems like that will continue to be the case. Andrews is likely to garner very low ownership this week – as the field tries to find the salary for Kupp and Taylor – making Andrews a top option for tournaments.
George Kittle ($6,700 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (+4.5) at Los Angeles Rams (44.5 total)
In his return as a starter, quarterback Trey Lance targeted Kittle just twice in Week 17. Which is obviously not optimal. However, it might not be sticky either. San Francisco is a run-first team and faced a Houston team that faces the third-lowest opponent pass play rate. Lance attempted just 23 overall passes, leaving little to go around.
That probably won’t be the case this week, though. It’s win-and-in for San Francisco, who needs to get past a similarly motivated Rams team to secure a playoff spot. The 49ers are very unlikely to control this game as easily as they did the Texans, so the game script will lend itself to more passing. Most teams choose (or are forced) to take that route against the Rams. Los Angeles is one of 10 teams to face passes on more than 60% of their defensive plays this year.
Kittle clearly has the talent to get it done here. There are questions about his opportunity and his matchup, but sometimes we have to take a chance. Kittle trails only Andrews in ceiling projection for Week 18.
Kyle Pitts ($5,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel): Atlanta Falcons (+4.5) vs. New Orleans Saints (40 total)
It’s going to go down as a disappointing rookie season for Pitts, especially from a fantasy perspective. That’s more our fault than his, though. Pitts is a mere 60 yards shy of the rookie record for receiving yards by a tight end (albeit on one more game.) He’s a top-five PPR tight end heading into the week, which is unheard of for a rookie at the notoriously difficult position. All of this despite facing defenses built around stopping him, as he’s the Falcons’ only real passing game weapon.
It’s hard to say how much record chasing will factor into Pitts’ usage this week. This is a meaningless game for Atlanta, so it wouldn’t be shocking if he were forced the ball a bit. Even if he’s not, he has the ability to break a big game or two. It’s our last chance for a while to be early on the Kyle Pitts breakout, so he’s worth a look. He’s a far better value on FanDuel, so I’d look there first this week.
Rob Gronkowski ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) vs. Carolina Panthers (41.5 total)
Gronk and Mike Evans are the last remaining starters in the Tampa Bay passing attack, with Chris Godwin done for the year, Antonio Brown cut, and pass-down back Leonard Fournette also injured. That’s been the case for a couple of games now, with a mixed bag of performances for Gronk. He saw only two targets against Carolina in their last meeting (Week 16) but rebounded with a 7/115 line on 10 targets last week.
Tampa Bay won’t have much choice but to throw to him if this game stays at all close, though. On the other hand, there’s a chance they rest Gronk (or Tom Brady) in this one. They’ve already clinched their division and can’t get to first place in the NFC. It’s hard to say how much the difference between a two and four seed means to them – probably less than a week off (or with limited reps) means to Gronk.
Still, he could score a touchdown or two in the first half and end up as one of the better plays this week. Gronk deserves a look, but proceed with caution.
