In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models
There are five wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Here’s where they place within our Week 17 Fantasy Rankings (as of Wednesday):
- Cooper Kupp (1st)
- Stefon Diggs (5th)
- Keenan Allen (7th)
- Antonio Brown (8th)
- Josh Palmer (30th)
We’ll discuss why these five are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Wednesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday/Friday
- Running Backs on Friday/Saturday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp ($9,500 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Baltimore Ravens (46.5 total)
Another week, another top ranking for Cooper Kupp. It’s hard to be hyperbolic about Kupp given his dominance. He’s scored more PPR points than any other player, regardless of position this season. The next closest receiver (Davante Adams) is almost 90 points behind him. Only once in the last game has he failed to top 20 DraftKings points, and he scored 18.6 in that one.
What’s most impressive about Kupp, has been his ability to maintain production despite faltering quarterback play from Matthew Stafford. Week 16 was the perfect example: Stafford was held under 200 yards and threw three interceptions. Kupp still had ten catches for over 100 yards, though, despite the offensive difficulties.
We frequently talk about players being “game script independent” here. “Quarterback play independent” is a whole new degree of dominance, especially for wide receivers. There are plenty of talented NFL wideouts – Allen Robinson being a prime example – who cannot overcome poor quarterbacking. (Which isn’t to say Stafford is as bad as the quarterbacks Robinson has had, but it’s been a rough few weeks for him.)
Fortunately for Kupp and the Rams offense, this week is a perfect get-right spot for the passing attack. Baltimore ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass and was just torched for over 500 yards by Joe Burrow and the Bengals. While Kupp won’t account for over half of Stafford’s yards again this week, his 33% target share on the year suggests he’ll still produce a large chunk of them.
With Adams off the slate, the gap between Kupp and everyone else at the position is immense this week. Kupp’s DraftKings Ceiling Projection is almost eight points higher than anybody else. So long as his Ownership Projection remains reasonable – which it likely will due to his huge salary – he’s an outstanding tournament play.
He’s the leader in our Tournament Model on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Week 17.
Stefon Diggs ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-14.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (44.5 total)
Diggs feels like a bit of a fantasy disappointment this year. He has only one game over 24 DraftKings points (roughly 3x his current salary) on the season – a 33.2 point performance against the Jets. Despite that, he’s still the WR6 in DraftKings (WR7 FanDuel) scoring on the season, with consistent play throughout the year.
I mentioned the matchup with the Jets because of Diggs’ opponent this week, the Falcons. DVOA Rankings are expressed as a percentage – the amount that a team boosts (or hinders, in the case of negative numbers) their opponent’s production. Atlanta is one of only three teams within 5% of the Jets’ boost to the opponent’s passing production. The matchup works when we look at fantasy numbers too. Only three main slate teams allow a positive Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings this week, Atlanta among them.
Not that matchup is necessarily critical for Diggs. Outside of the Jets game, his three best FanDuel scores came against top-10 passing defenses by DVOA. However, that’s where Vegas data comes in. The Bills have the highest implied team total on the slate. They also pass at a top-10 rate on the season, and over a quarter of those passes go to Diggs.
Diggs also ranks second in air yards and is tied for fifth in touchdowns among all receivers. That profile fits better on FanDuel – Diggs isn’t a PPR machine, but he racks up the yardage and scores. Conveniently, he’s also priced at a steep discount on FanDuel this week, with a 98% Bargain Rating. That explains why he leads two of our Pro Models there, including our Cash Game Model.
Keenan Allen ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) vs. Denver Broncos (45 total)
Allen is popping in our models this week, which currently have Mike Williams as out. However, that situation is somewhat in flux. Williams was originally ruled out for Week 17 due to COVID. However, with the NFL updating their rules this week, there’s a chance he’s cleared.
Currently, Allen is the leader in Pts/Sal on FanDuel. He accounts for 26% of the Chargers targets on the season, with Williams second at 20%. We’re projecting a bigger target share without Williams, though (and Austin Ekeler, who ranks third on the team and is also likely to play this week but is yet to be added to our models).
The matchup is nothing special, as the Broncos rank middle of the pack in DVOA against the pass. They’re also the fourth-worst team for wide receivers to face based on Opponent Plus/Minus allowed on FanDuel. Finally, the Chargers’ team total ranks an uninspiring eighth on the slate.
All of which is to say, Allen is only a value here if Williams or Ekeler miss this game. Given the nature of Allen’s routes, the latter is likely to be more impactful. However, either one sitting out makes Allen a strong play at his very reasonable FanDuel price. He currently leads two of our Pro Models there.
Antonio Brown ($6,100 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13) at New York Jets (46 total)
With Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both missing last week, Brown was massively popular. Especially on full PPR DraftKings, where his salary was – and continues to be – much lower than FanDuel. As we expected, Brown was targeted on half of Brady’s pass attempts, catching 10 of 15 looks for over 100 yards.
Despite that, his salary remains fairly low on DraftKings. Another dozen or so targets seem highly likely. The Bucs are also playing the Jets, the league’s worst passing defense by DVOA and the fourth-worst by Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to receivers. Their overall passing volume may be down a bit this week in an expected blowout, but Brown’s efficiency should be up.
Last week’s game was a 32-6 victory over the Panthers, and Brown still saw 15 targets. His 1.54 points/opportunity was unremarkable, though. For context, that mark trails players like Kalif Raymond and Jauan Jennings, among many others. However, the Panthers have a top 10 pass defense by DVOA. All signs point to Brown seeing similar volume as he did in that one but doing more with it.
Evans has an outside shot of returning this week from his hamstring injury. However, he was added to the COVID list on Tuesday, making his return less likely. Brown is a must-play if Evans is out again on DraftKings. He leads one of our Pro Models there.
Of course, FanDuel has Brown priced more appropriately. Perhaps too high even, given the one-game sample size we have on Brown in the last two months. The lack of PPR scoring also hurts him there, given that we’re banking on volume from Brown. I’d keep my exposure to AB on DraftKings this week.
Josh Palmer ($3,600 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) vs. Denver Broncos (45 total)
Like Allen, Palmer’s projections are inflated due to the absence of Williams from our models. Palmer is Williams’ direct backup and saw six targets – including one in the red zone – without Williams last week. While Allen has some standalone value regardless of who else is playing, Palmer does not. He currently leads two of our DraftKings models but won’t if Williams can clear COVID protocols.
Other Wide Receivers With Week-Winning Upside
Tyreek Hill ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (50 total)
Tyfreak didn’t benefit from the absence of Kelce last week in the way some anticipated. He saw a season-low two targets, posting his worst fantasy score of the year. The good news is that Kelce is back. That means the Bengals won’t be able to overload coverage to hill the way the Steelers did. That gives Hill his usual shot at a massive ceiling game we’ve grown accustomed to. (He has 40 and 50-point DraftKings performances this year.)
If anything, those odds are likely higher this week. We’ve seen how explosive the Bengals offense can be, so Kansas City will likely have to stay aggressive deep into this one. The Bengals are also a major pass funnel, ranking 22nd in DVOA through the air compared to seventh on the ground. Tyreek always has as good a chance of any player of breaking the slate, and I’d argue this week that chance is higher. He’s a better play on FanDuel, where he has a 98% Bargain Rating. (Though his relative salary doesn’t matter much if he drops another 40-point performance.)
Ja’Marr Chase ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel), Tee Higgins ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel) and Tyler Boyd ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (+5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (50 total)
Chase, Higgins, and Boyd all came along as part of the Bengals explosion in Week 16. and have another great opportunity against the Chiefs this week. Chase is the most expensive of the trio. However, that seems to still be a relic of his early-season performance.
Since the Bengals’ Week 10 bye, Higgins has outscored Chase by over 40 fantasy points. (Boyd has even outscored Chase for what it’s worth.) Higgins has more targets, receptions, air yards, and touchdowns. He’s the true alpha receiver here, yet still coming at a discount.
Playing any two of the Bengals receivers against the Chiefs makes a lot of sense. However, if looking for one player as a one-off, I’d go with Higgins (at least until we know Ownership Projections.) All three players are solid values in an expected shootout, though.
AJ Brown ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Tennessee Titans (-3.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (41 total)
As crazy as Antonio Brown’s 15-target Week 16 was, he wasn’t the target leader on the week (even among receivers named Brown). That honor belongs to AJ, who had a massive 16 targets on Thursday Night Football against the 49ers. The Titans missed their alpha receiver, as the offense had sputtered in his absence, averaging barely over 15 points per game. Without Julio Jones and Derrick Henry, a heavy dose of Arthur Juan might be the Titans’ only path to consistent offensive production.
The long week is a plus for Brown as well. It’s reasonable to expect a player coming back from a lengthy injury absence to be a bit banged up after their first game back. A few extra days of recovery can only help here. With the Titans clinging to a one-game divisional lead (and trailing the Chiefs by only one game for the AFC’s top seed), expect them to lean on their top weapon as much as necessary to secure a victory here. If he’s projecting at 10% or less ownership (which I’m anticipating), he’s my favorite tournament play of the week.
