In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models
There are six tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Here’s where they place within our Week 17 Fantasy Rankings (as of Thursday):
- Travis Kelce (1st)
- Rob Gronkowski (3rd)
- Zach Ertz (5th)
- Dalton Schultz (7th)
- CJ Uzomah (19th)
- Cole Kmet (20th)
We’ll discuss why these six are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Tuesday
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Tight Ends
Travis Kelce ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (51 total)
As you probably know, Kelce missed Week 16 due to COVID. Impressively, that was his first missed contest all year. The 32-year-old is as durable as ever. Fortunately, Kelce was activated from the COVID list on Wednesday. That means he’ll get in a couple of days of practice before the Chiefs’ crucial Week 17 matchup. They can clinch the top seed in the AFC with a win and a Titans loss on Sunday.
If anything, the extra week off is probably a boost to Kelce. At a time when players – especially high-usage older players – are feeling the effects of a full season, a well-rested Kelce is a dangerous thing.
He had 13 targets in his last game, a shootout with the Chargers. Kansas City is taking on a similarly explosive offense this week, leading to this game having the slate’s highest Vegas total. Kelce has excelled in high-total games during the Mahomes era:
Kelce in games with a 50-point or higher total since 2018. DraftKings scoring.
Cincinnati also has an uninspiring pass defense, ranking 22nd in DVOA. From a percentage standpoint, their passing defense exactly mirrors the Chargers – the team Kelce lit up for 44.1 DraftKings points in Week 15. The Bengals are especially susceptible to tight ends, ranking third on DraftKings and second on FanDuel in the highest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to tight ends.
Kelce is cheaper than Mark Andrews on both FanDuel and DraftKings, despite having higher Median and Ceiling Projections.
He’s the leader in our Tournament Model for Week 16 on both sites.
Rob Gronkowski ($6,200 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13) at New York Jets (45.5 total)
Expectations were high for Gronk in Week 16. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Leonard Fournette were all missing from the Bucs offense, leaving only Gronkowski and Antonio Brown active among players with at least a 10% share of Tom Brady’s targets. (That figure refers to their target share in active games, both Brown and Gronkowski have missed time this year, reducing their overall target share.)
Of course, it didn’t turn out well for the tight end. Brown was on the receiving end of more than half of Brady’s looks, and fellow tight end Cameron Brate was second with four targets. That left only two for Gronk, a highly disappointing day.
That feels fluky, though, as Brady has looked Gronkowski’s way frequently throughout the year. It’s a similar setup this week, with Gronk and Brown set to be the main options in the Tampa Bay passing game. The matchup couldn’t be easier, as they take on the Jets’ 32nd-ranked overall defense by DVOA.
Those DVOA rankings are a measure of efficiency, of course, not volume. The concern with a big spread like this is that Tampa doesn’t need to pass much as they run out the clock. Fortunately, though, the Bucs have the highest pass-rate over expectation in the league. Their volume will be down if they control this game easily, but not enough to stay away from Gronkowski.
Given his failure at high ownership last week, it’s a good time to buy low on Gronkowski. He’s a better value on FanDuel thanks to a 98% Bargain Rating, which is where he leads one of our Pro Models for Week 17.
Zach Ertz ($5,200 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) at Dallas Cowboys (51.5 total)
Ertz is the arbitrage version of Gronkowski this week. An aging, once-dominant tight end in an explosive offense. Lots of vacated targets due to injuries at wide receiver (in this case, DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore). However, there are some signs that Ertz could be the better on-paper play this week.
First, Arizona is a moderate underdog, so there’s no concern about passing volume in this one. They’ll likely need to throw the ball early and often to keep up with the Cowboys in a must-win game for the Cardinals, who’ve lost three in a row.
Second, Ertz has (unlike Gronk) seen the expected boost in targets from the loss of his team’s top receiving option. Hopkins has missed the last two games: Ertz has 24 targets in that time span. He’s been effective with those targets, too, catching 14 of them.
The knock on Ertz (especially relative to Gronkowski) this week is in the quality of the matchup. Dallas features the league’s best passing defense by DVOA. There’s some systemic risk with the Cardinals offense, who have been bad as of late, especially without Hopkins.
On the plus side, their DVOA by position paints a better picture for Ertz. Dallas ranks first overall against No. 1 wideouts, third against number two wideouts…and 15th against tight ends. Ertz may by Arizona’s best chance at moving the ball through the air this week. To be fair, I don’t have the slightest clue how predictive DVOA vs. position is, but it can’t hurt.
Ertz stands out on FanDuel, where he’s far too cheap for a top-five ranked tight end. He leads three of our models there, including the Cash Game Model.
Dalton Schultz ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (51.5 total)
Across the field from Ertz is Dalton Schultz. The Cowboys’ tight end has a tougher road to targets in this one. Dallas is a solid favorite and has all of their top receiving options available in this one. However, that hasn’t slowed Schultz down as of late.
Dallas won their last two games by at least 15 points. Schultz caught eight passes – including a touchdown – in both of those games. While then touchdowns are hard to bank on, the volume should be similar for Schultz in this one.
The matchup is more of a concern this week, though. While the Cardinals once had a reputation for allowing massive scores to tight ends on a seemingly weekly basis, that’s changed over the last year or two. This season, tight ends have topped 12 DraftKings points only twice against the Cardinals. (George Kittle, and the combination of Cole Kmet and Jimmy Graham for the Bears.)
That makes Schultz somewhat uncomfortable this week, particularly given the receivers he’s competing for targets with. Still, his combination of target share and the Cowboys team total is solid. His touchdown equity is as high as any tight end on the slate, with the possible exception of Kittle and Kelce. Schultz leads one of our Pro Models on DraftKings this week.
CJ Uzomah ($3,300 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (+5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (51 total)
Uzomah continues to be just involved enough in the Bengals offense to be relevant but not so involved as to see an increase in his salary. In last week’s offensive explosion, he was a bit of an afterthought. All of the Bengals receivers had big days, and there are only so many targets to go around. However, he did manage to still catch five passes on seven targets.
That type of line is roughly Uzomah’s ceiling in this offense. Since a surprising two-touchdown performance in Week 7, he hasn’t topped 10 DraftKings points (or scored a touchdown) in any game. However, he has at least three catches in all but one of those games, which is sufficient for a near-minimum-priced tight end.
There’s nothing special about this week’s matchup, though the shootout potential is a slight boost to Uzomah’s prospects. He’s a DraftKings only option this week – he leads all tight ends there in Pts/Sal. He also leads one of our Pro Models there.
Cole Kmet ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel): Chicago Bears (-6) vs. New York Giants (37.5 total)
Kmet is extremely similar to Uzomah this week. They’re ranked back-to-back and within $100 of each other’s salaries on both sites. Uzomah has 23 targets in the Bengals last four games; Kmet has 26 for the Bears. They both even have an identical 10.2 yards per reception mark on the season.
I’m a big fan of saving salary at tight end, so both players are on my radar this week. Parsing between them is extremely difficult, though. The Bengals will likely be passing more, but more of the Bear’s passes should head to Kmet. He has led the team in targets since Thanksgiving.
Even trying to draw conclusions from the Bears’ quarterback situation is fruitless this week. Justin Fields has started two of the Bears last five games (the same span in which Kmet leads the team in targets). Fields is responsible for Kmet’s best fantasy game in that span – and his worst.
Given the coin flip between the two options, I’ll be trusting our projections this week. They favor Uzomah by a point or so in Median Projection.
Kmet is a fine play, too though, he leads three of our Pro Models on DraftKings.
Other Tight Ends With Week-Winning Upside
George Kittle ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-12.5) vs Houton Texans (44 total)
Kittle trails only Kelce and Mark Andrews in points per game among tight ends this season. There’s some concern this week, though, as rookie Trey Lance is returning at quarterback. Lance completed only 52% of his passes in his earlier stint as the starter. He did look Kittles’ way 11 times in one of those games, though (Kittle missed the other) despite only attempting 18 passes in the game. That’s probably (definitely) an unsustainable target share, but still a good sign.
Of course, the hope is that Lance (and the 49ers offense) is more efficient this time. Their 28-point team total (fifth-best on the slate) is an encouraging sign. If Lance is able to run an effective offense and still lock in on Kittle, it could be a great day for the tight end.
He trails only Kelce in Ceiling Projection on both sites this week.
Mark Andrews ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) at Los Angeles Rams (46.5 total)
Andrews is on the most ridiculous run I can ever remember from a tight end. He has three straight games of at least 29.5 DraftKings points, all of which he racked up over 100 receiving yards and a touchdown. Six of his last seven games have gone for at least 15 DraftKings points, so it’s not just a recent explosion.
It’s either extra impressive or somewhat concerning that he’s had his big games without Lamar Jackson at quarterback, though. Jackson missed each of the last two games and only attempted four passes in the first game of Andrews’ huge run. Jackson is looking likely to return this week, raising some concern about Andrews’ ability to sustain his production. To be clear, another 30-point game is improbable regardless of the quarterback, but the odds are probably worse with Jackson. (Andrews had only one game out of 11 over 30 points with Jackson under center.)
Andrews is still a strong play, though, especially if he’s less popular than the other top options this week. We have Andrews just behind Kittle in Ceiling Projection on both sites.
The price on Andrews on FanDuel is probably too high, but paying a few hundred extra to be contrarian on DraftKings makes sense for tournaments.
