In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models
There are five quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models
Here’s where they place within our Week 17 Fantasy Rankings (as of Wednesday):
- Josh Allen (1st)
- Tom Brady (3rd)
- Dak Prescott (5th)
- Jalen Hurts (7th)
- Trey Lance (19th)
We’ll discuss why these five are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other backs who could help you take down a tournament.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Wide Receivers on Thursday
- Tight Ends on Friday
- Running Backs on Friday/Saturday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Quarterbacks
Josh Allen ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-14.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (44.5 total)
Allen takes his usual spot atop our rankings for Week 17. His Bills are now back atop the AFC East after defeating the rival Patriots. However, every game is crucial. New England has the same record as the Bills, with the Dolphins – winners of seven straight – only a game behind. All of which is to say, don’t expect the Bills to let up in this one.
They’ve had their foot on the gas for a few weeks now, averaging 45 pass attempts per game since the “wind game” in their first meeting with New England. It couldn’t have come at a better time for Allen. He had a seven-game stretch of being held under 30 FanDuel points before Week 14 but has accomplished that feat twice since then.
Of course, those big game booths came in closer contests, with Allen scoring “only” 21.8 FanDuel points in an easy win against the Panthers. While that’s a good score, it would be a disappointment at his price – and fall short of our projections.
To that end, Allen has been unimpressive as a big favorite over the past two seasons:
All NFL Quarterbacks over the past two seasons when favored by 10 or more points – FanDuel scoring
Zooming in on Allen’s game logs via our Trends tool in these games paints a slightly different picture. Allen has at least 21 points in four of the five qualifying games. Our Consistency Rating for him is low, but only because his salaries have been so high and that 21 FanDuel points hasn’t cut it. I’m probably the biggest fan of the Trends tool there is, but this is a situation where it doesn’t paint the full picture.
That consistency in similar environments is absolutely vital in cash games. (Take it from me, I played Matthew Stafford in Week 16 and Kyler Murray in Week 15 in cash games…it didn’t go well.)
Allen leads our Cash Game Model on FanDuel, as well as two of our more tournament-focused pro models.
Tom Brady ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13) at New York Jets (46 total)
Like Allen and the Bills, Tampa is a huge favorite this week. They also have much left to play for, as they’re one game back from the all-important top seed in the NFC. There are some differences, though, which we’ll dig into.
Crucially, Brady attempted the fewest passes of the season last week. Yes, that game was a 26-point blowout win. However, that doesn’t explain the volume change entirely. Tampa Bay has two bigger wins on the year. Brady attempted 36 and 42 passes in those games, compared to just 30 in Week 16.
Brady and the Bucs were – and will likely be again – without their three most targeted players. While the return of Antonio Brown to the lineup mitigated that a bit, a change in the game plan is to be expected. Brown had a ridiculous 52% target share, with no other player seeing more than four.
What’s also different is how Brady has performed in these situations. Using the same trend we used for Allen, let’s look at Brady specifically (DraftKings scoring):
I’ve pulled out his game logs because the average numbers are frankly meaningless here. Brady has three games under 20 DraftKings points and four games over 30 when favored by at least 10 with the Bucs. Including a 40-point performance (at only 6.4% ownership) earlier this season.
That profile makes Brady unappealing for cash games but a far better tournament option. He’s the leader of our Tournament Model on DraftKings. He has a top-five Ceiling Projection there. While our Ownership Projections aren’t out yet, I’d expect him to be fairly unpopular this week. That’s the ideal combination for taking down a tournament.
Dak Prescott ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Dallas Cowboys (-5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (51.5 total)
After an uncharacteristic three-game slump in which he threw only three touchdowns (to three interceptions), Dak was back with a bang in Week 16. He had his best game of the season, throwing for four touchdowns and over 300 yards as the Cowboys’ buggy whipped Washington 56-14 on Sunday Night Football.
Now he’s riding that momentum into a much tougher matchup with Arizona. This game has the highest Vegas total on the slate, which is always good for quarterbacks. Especially quarterbacks whose primary ball carriers are either dealing with injuries (Pollard) or suffering from a severe case of “not good at football anymore” (Elliott).
On the other hand, the matchup with the Cardinals isn’t ideal. They’ve allowed only five quarterback performances over 20 FanDuel points on the season and none over 25.26. We want more than that from quarterbacks at Prescott’s price range in tournaments.
Still, Vegas is projecting this game to be a shootout, and that’s usually a stronger predictor of fantasy success than looking at defense vs. position stats. Arizona ranks fifth in both rushing and passing DVOA, so it’s not like they’re forcing teams to beat them on the ground. Given the Cowboys’ weapons at wide receiver, the bulk of their offensive output is likely to come through the air.
Dak is a better play on FanDuel, where he ranks outside the top ten in salary. He’s ranked as our fifth best quarterback overall this week so that math is easy. He leads one of our Pro Models there this week.
Jalen Hurts ($6,600 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Washington Football Team (46 total)
Hurts is projecting as one of our better quarterbacks plays this week. That’s largely due to the matchup with Washington. As mentioned above, they were torched by Dallas last week. However, that wasn’t an isolated incident.
In fact, it wasn’t even the highest quarterback score allowed by Washington this year. Josh Allen also topped 40 points on them earlier in the season, and things have only gotten worse for Washington. Their secondary is suspect at best, relying on their pass rush to force quarterbacks to get rid of the ball. That’s harder without star edge rusher Chase Young, who hasn’t played since Week 10.
Since then, a full half of the quarterbacks to play against Washington have gone over 26 FanDuel points. That list includes Prescott, Hurts himself, and Cam Newton in his one productive game this year.
Hurts should be able to repeat that feat in a must-win game for the Eagles. As we know by now, his biggest asset is his rushing production. He’ll likely be called on to utilize his legs more this week. Miles Sanders is already ruled out. Goal-line specialist (and next on the depth chart) Jordan Howard is also on the wrong side of questionable.
Hurts is a slightly better value on FanDuel, where he holds a 63% Bargain Rating. That’s also where he holds the lead in one of our Pro Models.
Trey Lance ($4,800 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-12.5) vs. Houston Texans (44.5 total)
Editor’s note: Jimmy Graroppolo isn’t officially out yet.
Of course, the real standout this week is Trey Lance. Lance is expected for the first time since Week 5, in a great matchup with Houston. Crucially, DraftKings either didn’t get the news in time or chose not to elevate Lance’s price above what it’s been when he was riding the pine, making him a great value this week.
While Lance struggled in limited action this season, that was a long time ago. The rookie has had almost three months since his last game action. There’s certainly reason to believe he’s improved since then, as he gets more NFL (practice) reps.
What’s definitely improved, though, is the matchup. Despite the rookie taking over under center, the 49ers are implied for a top-five team total on the slate. They’re huge favorites against the Texans, but don’t let that scare you away. Lance’s rushing upside keeps him in play in positive game scripts.
Being a mistake-prone rookie making his third NFL start might also not be the worst thing here. A costly turnover or two knocks a point off of his fantasy score, but there are other benefits. Chiefly, it might stop the Niners from getting out to an insurmountable lead, keeping them aggressive later in the game.
There’s also an argument that Kyle Shannahan uses this as a dress rehearsal for Lance. San Francisco is clinging to the last playoff spot in the NFC but will be without Garoppolo for most (likely all) of the playoffs if they are to make it. A matchup with the Texans is the perfect situation for Lance to work on game throws, even if the scoreboard suggests it’s unnecessary.
It goes without saying that Lance is the best value this week on both sites. He has the best Pts/Sal on both. He also leads four of our models on DraftKings, including the Cash Game Model.
Other Quarterbacks With Week-Winning Upside
Patrick Mahomes ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (50 total)
This game has the second-highest total on the slate, with Mahomes taking on the explosive Bengals offense. We saw how many points they can put up last week, so Mahomes and the Chiefs will need to keep up in this one. While the Chiefs tilt heavily towards the pass anyway, this is a better game than usual to lean on Mahomes. The Bengals defense ranks seventh against the run but 22nd against the pass.
Mahomes has eight touchdowns and over 900 yards over his last three games, and all of those were less friendly situations than this one. Either due to lack of scoring from the other team, injuries to key skill players, or tougher defensive matchups. All of those issues should be rectified in Week 17, making Mahomes a smash play. He has our highest Ceiling Projection outside of Allen this week.
Joe Burrow ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (+5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (50 total)
Burrow saw his price rise in a major way after last week’s four-touchdown, 500-yard performance. It’s well deserved, of course, but it could keep people away from clicking his name this week. (In addition to the fact that clicking last week’s best quarterback feels like a mistake. It usually is, but maybe not this time.)
Kansas City’s defense has been extremely stingy to quarterbacks as of late, allowing only Justin Herbert to top 20 points since the start of November. Still, their offense forces opposing teams to pass, so Burrow should at least have solid volume this week. He’s not projecting as a great value but has some sneaky tournament upside.
