In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models
There are three wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Here’s where they place within our Week 16 Fantasy Rankings (as of Wednesday):
- Cooper Kupp (1st)
- Justin Jefferson (3rd)
- Ja’Marr Chase (10th)
- Laquon Treadwell (45th)
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Wednesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday/Friday
- Running Backs on Friday/Saturday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp ($9,100 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Minnesota Vikings (49 total)
As always, Kupp is the top-ranked receiver in our rankings and sits atop models on DraftKings and FanDuel – including the Cash Game and Tournament Models on DraftKings. This tweet says it all:
The gap between Cooper Kupp (WR1) and Tyreek Hill (WR2) in total points this season: 88.9.
The gap between Tyreek Hill (WR2) and Adam Thielen (WR20) in total points this season: 88.4.
🤯🤯🤯
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 22, 2021
Anyway, Kupp stands out more than usual this week. Not so much for the quality of his matchup, but for the size of the gap between him and the next best options. His usual challenger (Davante Adams) is off the main slate this week. That leaves Kupp head and shoulders above every other receiver.
Of course, the matchup is better than usual. Minnesota has been susceptible to wide receivers this year, allowing (by far) the highest Opponent Plus/Minus score to the position on the slate. (They’re at 1.6 on DraftKings, with no other team allowing a positive number.) With Kupp’s league-leading target share, most of those extra points will flow his way.
FanDuel got around to adjusting Kupp’s price this week, making him a stronger play on DraftKings. The gap between Kupp and the next most expensive player (Hill) is larger on FanDuel. Additionally, Kupp’s high volume of catches is more valuable with DraftKing’s full PPR scoring.
Kupp is likely to be very popular in contests of all types this week, but it’s hard to see a way around playing him. He should certainly be in your cash lineups and is a very scary fade for tournaments.
Justin Jefferson ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel): Minnesota Vikings (+3) vs. Los Angeles Rams (49 total)
Frequently when one offense – particularly passing offense – stands out — we should look to attack with players from the other team. That’s certainly the case this week, as the Vikings are narrow underdogs to Kupp’s Rams. We have Jefferson with the third-highest Median Projection on both sites this week, narrowly trailing Hill for second.
Our projections are assuming Adam Thielen is active this week, which is no guarantee. Theilen missed both of the last two games and is currently questionable. Jefferson has a massive 45% target share with Thielen out of the lineup, compared to 25% with him in. Of course, it might actually be better for Jefferson if Thielen plays. It would probably put a dent in Jefferson’s Ownership Projection. The Vikings’ passing offense has also struggled, with less than 300 yards passing combined between the two games. Finally, Thielen playing would likely mean fewer reps for Jefferson against Rams standout cornerback Jalen Ramsey.
The Ramsey effect is an important decision point with Jefferson this week. Even if Thielen is healthy, Ramsey will likely spend most of his time on Jefferson. Per PFF’s Shadow Coverage Matrix, no receiver Ramsey has shadowed topped 45 yards last season (this tool doesn’t seem to be active for the 2021 season, but the point stands). However, that only counts snaps lined up across from Ramsey, as Jefferson could do his damage in limited snaps against lesser corners.
I’m not sure how much the individual matchup matters here, which is why Jefferson’s ownership will play a key role for me. If it seems like the field is fading him due to the perceived difficulty, he’s worth a look. If, however, Jefferson profiles as one of the more popular receivers, I’ll likely pass and try to get more unique with my lineup. Either way, he’s a great on-paper play this week.
Ja’Marr Chase ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (44.5 total)
Chase’s salary has dipped pretty far on FanDuel, where he’s now currently third in Pts/Sal. His style also fits better over there. Chase is fifth in yards and tied for third in touchdowns among wideouts this season, but he ranks outside the top 25 in receptions. That value also has him atop our Cash Game Model on FanDuel.
Although, I’m not so sure about Chase as a cash game play. His game logs paint the picture of a boom-or-bust player. He has four games over 20 FanDuel points this year but has scored under six points in half of his last six games.
That’s an ideal setup for a tournament option: the poor games keep both ownership and salary down while capturing the big games can win you tournaments. The depth of his floor makes him an uncomfortable cash game option though.
It’s a tremendous matchup as the Ravens are one of the league’s starkest pass funnels. They rank fifth in DVOA against the run but 29th against the pass. Combine that with starting running back Joe Mixon’s sprained ankle, and you have a recipe for a ton of Joe Burrow throws.
Chase has his usual wide range of outcomes in this one, with a better than normal chance of finding his ceiling.
Laquon Treadwell ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) at New York Jets (41.5 total)
Treadwell is the obligatory DraftKings value pick this week. He’s the only receiver other than Kupp to lead any of our models there. Of course, he’s unlikely to be worth his price on FanDuel, where the minimum salary is much higher.
It is curious we haven’t seen more of a bump in Treadwell’s price on DraftKings. He has double-digit DraftKings points in three straight games and is averaging seven targets per game over the last four. This isn’t just noise either. The uptick in usage coincides with Jaguars receiver Jamaal Agnew being ruled out for the year.
His best game in that span was last week, which is also probably not a coincidence. That was the first game after the much-discussed firing of Urban Meyer. Hopefully, new coach Darrell Bevell’s system will be better for the Jaguars receivers in general.
We know what’s going on at this point in the year. Treadwell isn’t going to win you any tournaments, but the savings from using him in your lineups can. He has a very solid floor for his price and is a near-must in cash games – particularly if you’re also rostering Kupp. Treadwell is tied for the lead in Pts/Sal on DraftKings this week.
Other Wide Receivers With Week-Winning Upside
Tyreek Hill ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-8) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (44 total)
Hill is always worthy of consideration in tournaments, and this week is no different. Of particular interest this week, tight end Travis Kelce was placed on the covid list early in the week. Kelce is reportedly vaccinated, so should be able to find his way back to the field. However, Hill would be in line for increased volume if Kelce can’t – Kelce and Hill combine for almost 50% of the Chiefs targets this year.
Otherwise, I’m probably avoiding Hill. Pittsburgh is a run funnel defense, and the fairly large spread doesn’t suggest a ton of passing volume. Hill can post monster games in any matchup. His chances of doing so are lower than normal this week unless Kelce misses the game.
Note: Tyreek Hill is also currently on the reserve/COVID list as of Thursday morning.
Diontae Johnson ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Pittsburgh Steelers (+8) at Kansas City Chiefs (44 total)
I prefer attacking the Chiefs-Steelers game from the other side of the field. Pittsburgh – unlike Kansas City – will likely have to throw the ball a ton in this one. That means plenty of volume for Johnson, who leads the league in target share from Week 6 (when JuJu Smith-Schuster went down) on.
Kansas City’s defense has been very solid lately, so this is simply a bet on volume play. Johnson boasts a very high catch rate to go along with his massive target share, which is an ideal combination with full PPR scoring on DraftKings. He’s fourth in our ceiling projections there, narrowly trailing Hill at a $900 savings.
Hunter Renfrow ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) vs. Denver Broncos (41.5 total)
Renfrow has 29 targets in three games without tight end Darren Waller, who is expected to miss again this week. Before last week, he also had three straight 22+ point DraftKings scores. Renfrow is arbitrage Johnson here, only in a worse game environment. The Raiders aren’t likely to throw at nearly the rate as Pittsburgh, but a large percentage of them will go to Renfrow. He’s also flashed some ceiling this season, with a 32 point game against the Chiefs in Week 14. (Though, that also suggests Johnson is the better play this week.)
Keenan Allen ($7,700 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-9) at Houston Texans (45.5 total)
Allen is another low air yards high-volume option this week. He has double-digit targets in six of his last seven games, though the one exception was in a blowout win against the Bengals. With the Chargers as large favorites this week, it’s not the ideal spot for Allen. He’d need the Texans to answer back with some points to have a path to a big game, so he’s best deployed when also rostering a Texan.
Stefon Diggs ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at New England Patriots (43.5 total)
Diggs has been a relative disappointment as of late, failing to hit salary-based expectations on FanDuel in three straight contests. His price has fallen appropriately, to the cheapest point it’s been since Halloween. The Bills are also underdogs (which is infrequent), suggesting passing volume could be higher than normal. With Emmanuel Sanders missing again, that’s a good combination for Diggs, as well as Gabriel Davis ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel).
I prefer Davis on DraftKings, but Diggs is too cheap on FanDuel. It’s the perfect time to buy low on him in tournaments. Both from a salary and ownership perspective. He’s likely to be unpopular given the difficulty of the matchup with New England.
Antonio Brown ($4,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11) at Carolina Panthers (44 total)
We’ve saved the best for last, as AB is inexplicably below $5,000 on DraftKings this week. We know how much Tampa loves to pass regardless of game script, so the 11 point spread isn’t much of a concern. Especially with top running back – and target hog – Leonard Fournette inactive this week. Brown is the WR1 for Brady this week with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both out of commission.
There are some mild concerns about rust, with Brown not having played since Week 6, but not enough to fade Brown at his DraftKings price. He averaged 24.26 DraftKings points before going down with his injury, and that includes a game he left early. It also includes games (all of them) in which he had to compete with at least one of the other top receivers for targets. Brown is a legitimate decision on FanDuel, where he’s (appropriately) priced as a top receiver. But as the top receiver on the team with the highest implied point total, we can’t fade him at $4,900.
