In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models
Here’s where they place within our Week 15 Fantasy Rankings (as of Wednesday):
- Kyler Murray (1st)
- Josh Allen (5th)
- Tua Tagovailoa (9th)
- Lamar Jackson (15th)
We’ll discuss why these four are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other backs who could help you take down a tournament.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Wide Receivers on Thursday
- Tight Ends on Friday
- Running Backs on Friday/Saturday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (-13.5) at Detroit Lions (47.5 total)
Murray is tricky this week, given the extreme spread the Cardinals have against the Lions. The Lions’ 28th-ranked pass defense by DVOA obviously makes for an appealing matchup. On the other hand, they are allowing a -2.9 Opponent Plus/Minus score to quarterbacks this season. Teams don’t really need to throw the ball much against Detroit, making it hard for passers to find big scores.
Arizona passes at roughly the expected (situation-neutral) rate this season, making it unlikely they really open it up in this one. Kyler has been great as a favorite of at least a touchdown:
On the other hand, in the only game where he was a double-digit favorite (against the Texans this season), he scored only 22.44 DraftKings points. That’s a solid score, but at nearly $8,000 on DraftKings, not one you’d feel great about.
Murray’s best path toward a tournament-winning score involves the Lions keeping pace in this one. That’s not the craziest scenario, as they’ve been able to force close games as large underdogs already this season. It does mean that Murray lineups should probably include a Lion or two on the other side though.
Murray is the current leader of our Tournament Model on DraftKings and an additional Pro Model on FanDuel. This could change throughout the week depending on Ownership Projections, but I wouldn’t expect him to be overly popular in this one.
Josh Allen ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-10.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (43.5 total)
The Bills are extremely comfortable leaning on Allen in tight games, as we saw with his 54-attempt Week 14 against Tampa Bay. The question this week is how much Allen should we expect in a game Vegas expects to be a blowout for Buffalo?
Allen was held under 30 pass attempts in each of the Bills’ last two wins. He made up for it in those games with efficiency, though, combining for over 600 yards and six touchdowns through the air in those contests. He’ll likely need to repeat that this week against Carolina. The Panthers are a mess offensively and are unlikely to keep up with Buffalo, especially considering Buffalo’s strong defense.
Both of those prior wins were against teams that invited the pass more than Carolina does. The Saints rank first in DVOA against the run compared to 12th against the pass, while the Jets are dead last against the pass. Carolina, on the other hand, ranks fifth against the run and 20th against the pass. Of course, Allen could get it done from a fantasy perspective with his legs in this matchup.
Allen’s most likely outcome is similar to Murray’s. A solid, but not great, score. That’s not enough at his price but should also keep ownership reasonable. Like Murray, he has an extremely strong floor, though. That makes him the leader in our Cash Game Model on FanDuel, where higher-priced quarterbacks are less prohibitive to rosters.
Tua Tagovailoa ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (-9.5) vs. New York Jets (42 total)
The pricing algorithms at DraftKings didn’t seem to notice who the Dolphins were matched up with. They left Tua at only $5,700, despite the ideal matchup with the Jets. The only quarterback to score under 18 DraftKings points against the Jets in the last 10 games was Tyrod Taylor of the Texans, and even he had an acceptable 16.32 points.
Of course, like the quarterbacks mentioned above, Tua is a large favorite in this one. That’s where the salary discussion is critical. The floor on highly favored quarterbacks is raised. Assuming the lines aren’t totally off, these players are generally responsible for their team building a big lead in the first place. If they struggle, they’ll continue to have the ball in their hands. If they succeed, they’ll post a solid score early.
Their ceiling is limited, though, by reduced odds that they score early and often. If the other team can’t keep up, they don’t need to keep passing. With Tua’s price, a “Josh Allen Floor Game” is actually a solid score. It certainly won’t hurt you and may even help you win a tournament.
Unlike the other heavy underdogs, the Jets also allow a positive Opponent Plus/Minus score to quarterbacks this season, which is another checkmark for Tagovailoa. Tua is the leader in four of our DraftKings models, including the Cash Game Model. He also leads one on FanDuel (despite his higher salary), making him the only quarterback to lead a model on both sites. He’s a lock on DraftKings this week, though, where he’s tied for the lead in Pts/Sal.
Lamar Jackson ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,700 Fanduel): Baltimore Ravens (+4.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (43.5 total)
After exiting last week’s contest early with a low ankle sprain, Jackson is currently questionable in this one.
My hope would be that Jackson is only active in this one if he’s at full strength. Jackson has been extremely limited as a passer as of late, throwing 10 interceptions against eight touchdowns from Week 6 on. It doesn’t make a lot of sense to start an immobile Jackson, but it’s unclear what the Ravens’ plans are in this one.
That said, it would be a good time for a vintage Jackson performance. The Ravens have lost two straight and have a narrow one-game lead in the AFC north. It’s unlikely that their 27th-ranked pass defense bottles up Rodgers and the Packers, so Jackson is their best hope in this one.
He’ll have a shot to get it done on the ground, as the Packers rushing defense ranks 27th in the league. Jackson is also cheap enough on FanDuel where he doesn’t need a huge performance here; his 99% Bargain Rating leads all FanDuel quarterbacks.
I’ll be avoiding Jackson on DraftKings, where his Projected Plus/Minus is among the worst on the slate. He’s intriguing on FanDuel, though, where he leads one of our Pro Models.
Other Quarterbacks With Week-Winning Upside
Matthew Stafford ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks (45.5 total)
It’s always tough to find a ceiling game with Stafford. The immobile veteran threw for three touchdowns and 287 yards last week but still finished under 24 points on DraftKings. He needs four touchdowns or three scores and the 300-yard bonus to really stand out.
However, he has a reasonable shot of doing that this week against a poor Seahawks pass defense. Especially if starting running back Darrel Henderson (COVID) misses another game; the passing volume could be high in this one.
Stafford ranks second in our Ceiling Projections this week but fifth in salary on both sites.
Aaron Rodgers ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (-4.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (43.5 total)
Assuming Jackson is good to go for Baltimore, Rodgers is in a good position to post a fourth straight 26+ point score on FanDuel. He’s too expensive on DraftKings given this game’s overall scoring expectation, but his price on FanDuel stands out. Rodgers has 11 total touchdowns over the last three weeks and is facing the league’s 27th ranked passing defense.
He’s one of the best tournament options on the slate.
Dak Prescott ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) at New York Giants (44.5 total)
Prescott is my preferred DraftKings option this week, despite being heavily favored against the Giants. With injuries to both of the Cowboys’ top backs, Prescott has attempted at least 39 passes in four straight. He’s been less effective as a rusher since his calf injury but should be working his way back to full health in this one.
Like Tagovailoa, his salary is cheap enough that we don’t need a huge game to feel good about him in your lineups. He ranks third in our Median Projections on DraftKings but seventh in salary.
That leaves him tied with Tua for the lead in Pts/Sal on DraftKings.
