In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models
There are three wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Here’s where they place within our Week 14 Fantasy Rankings (as of Wednesday):
- Tyreek Hill (4th)
- Chris Godwin (9th)
- Mike Williams (15th)
We’ll discuss why these four are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Wednesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday/Friday
- Running Backs on Friday/Saturday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill ($8,500 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-9) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (48 total)
“Tyfreak” is always in play for his ceiling but stands out this week on FanDuel. With the lack of other top receivers available (Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams are off the main slate), Hill is a cut above the rest of the pack. His Median Projection on FanDuel is a full three points ahead of the next highest player. That explains why he leads all of our Pro Models on FanDuel – and our Tournament Model on DraftKings.
We discussed in the Quarterback Breakdown Patrick Mahomes prospects for this one, which largely apply to Hill as well. The short version is: plus matchup, but some concerning Trends for Hill. Like his quarterback, Hill was dominant in the last matchup with Las Vegas, scoring over 24 FanDuel points. Also, like Mahomes, it was his best game since early October. Given the reduction in scoring in late-season games at Arrowhead and the data on divisional matchups the second time around, don’t expect Hill to repeat his performance.
Still, he could fall short of that target and still be the week’s highest-scoring FanDuel receiver, which makes for a bit of a conundrum. Is Hill’s potential positional edge worth paying up for? As always, the answer (for tournaments) largely comes down to Ownership Projections.
For cash games, though, Hill is a very safe bet. It doesn’t seem like salary is particularly tight this week on FanDuel, so going after his raw score is probably worth it. Before last week’s dismantling of the Broncos, Hill had at least 10 targets in four straight. If the Raiders can keep this one at all interesting, he should get to that number again.
Chris Godwin ($7,100 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (52.5 total)
After disappointing in Week 12, Godwin rewarded those who stuck with him last week. He saw a massive 17 targets with Antonio Brown out of the lineup, catching 15 for 143 yards. You’d be hard-pressed to find a receiver who put up 33 DraftKings points without scoring a touchdown, but Godwin did just that.
This week, the setup isn’t quite so friendly for Godwin. Tampa Bay is taking on the Bills with their No. 1 (by DVOA) pass defense. (For what it’s worth, Buffalo was the top-rated defense even before Monday night, in which Mac Jones attempted only three passes against them in extreme wind conditions.)
Therefore, we’re weighing the game environment and role against matchup. I’m inclined to side with the former, particularly on DraftKings. Especially in cash, it’s hard to find Godwin’s floor from any other player. He should continue to see massive targets in what Vegas expects to be a close game. His short average depth of target (aDOT) of 7.2 means those targets will largely be catchable balls as well.
In tournaments, Godwin presents more of a dilemma. Buffalo’s tough pass defense could certainly limit his ceiling. His rostership could also be inflated, given how well he performed last week. We want to avoid recency bias plays — sometimes even when they’re logical for other reasons.
Godwin trails only Hill in Median Projection on DraftKings, where he’s also tied for the lead in Pts/Sal. He leads one of our Pro Models there.
Mike Williams ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5) vs. New York Giants (44.5 total)
When Williams popped up in the models this week, I initially thought it was because we were projecting Keenan Allen to be missing from this one. (Allen tested positive for COVID but is reportedly vaccinated. He has a chance to clear protocols and return for Sunday’s game.) That’s not the case though. We’re just that high on Williams.
While Allen has been stealing the spotlight recently, Williams has two 19+ point DraftKings performances in the last three weeks. The deep nature of his targets (11.12 aDOT) means he doesn’t need many of them to post a big score. Both of his recent big games came with only five catches each.
It also means that his production will be hit or miss, making him a better tournament play. In the Chargers 12 games, Williams has gone over 19 points in exactly half of them – and under 7.9 in the other half. There’s no middle ground for him, at least so far.
Of course, if Allen does indeed miss Williams may be in cash consideration. Allen has a target share just under 30% since Week 8, and those targets have to go somewhere. My inclination is that a combination of Allen’s direct backup and Austin Ekeler will see most of them. However, even one or two extra for Williams makes a big difference. He averages 2.15 DraftKings points per opportunity over the last month, according to our models. (For context, that’s well above players like Hill and Godwin, who both average 1.85.)
Williams leads one of our Pro Models on DraftKings, where he has the best Bargain Rating of any receiver over $5,500.
Other Wide Receivers With Week-Winning Upside
Deebo Samuel ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (+1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (48.5 total)
Samuel is averaging over 23 DraftKings points per game since the start of October and should be ready to go after missing last week with a groin injury. Samuel’s recent production was notable for his use in the ground game. He handled 19 carries (And scored four rushing touchdowns) in the three games preceding his injury. That could continue this week, as both Jeff Wilson and Elijah Mitchell deal with injuries.
Samuel’s ceiling is probably better if he’s not used as a running back – especially on full-PPR DraftKings. He saw only 11 targets in those games. Additionally, the Bengals are worse (18th) against the pass than they are against the run (11th). Still, Samuel’s floor – and median – would get a boost if we knew he’d be handling a handful of carries.
Keenan Allen ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5) vs. New York Giants (44.5 total)
If Allen is able to go, he’s in line for another solid performance. While the Chargers are expected to blow the Giants out, Allen saw eight targets in last week’s 19 point win. Which was the first time in six weeks he saw less than 10 targets in a game. Allen’s ceiling isn’t great – he hasn’t topped 25.4 DraftKings points on the year. However, he has a solid floor and an absurdly cheap price on FanDuel. Allen is third in Median Projection on both sites this week.
Stefon Diggs ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (+3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (52.5 total)
For all the reasons we love Brady, Godwin, and Perriman – Diggs is a great play this week. He has the biggest target share (either team) in the game with the week’s highest total. The Bills are underdogs and facing the team that forces opponent’s to throw at the highest rate in the league. Everything points to a big game, volume-wise, for Diggs. Tampa has a solid pass defense, but given the Bills implied score (and their struggles running the ball), Diggs should eat in this one. If he comes in at low ownership, he’s a potential leader of the Minimalist Tournament Model this week.
Cowboys Receivers (-4) at Washington Football Team (48 total)
CeeDee Lamb ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel), Amari Cooper ($5,900 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel) & Michael Gallup ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel)
Assuming Cooper (COVID) is back to full strength this week – he played only 24 snaps in his first game back from the illness – it’s again a three-man receiving room in Dallas. However, Dallas has been passing more recently and has a top-five implied total this week. It’s likely that at least one of the group posts a solid score this week.
Cooper, while risky, is the best value. He’s been at least $6,000 in salary on DraftKings in all but one other week this season. Gallup is intriguing for his ceiling. He has the deepest aDOT and has at least eight targets since returning to his usual workload. However, his target share has been inflated due to missed time by Lamb and Cooper. Lamb is a bit expensive for his likely role in this one, but he is the team’s alpha receiver when healthy.
I’m not planning on rostering any of the Cowboys as one-off plays, but Cowboys stacks have some merit against the league’s 30th ranked passing defense. Any combination of two receivers is logical here, with ownership dictating how I’m likely to build.
Bengals Receivers (-1.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (48.5 total)
Ja’Marr Chase ($6,900 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel), Tee Higgins ($6,400 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel) & Tyler Boyd ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
The Bengals are in a similar situation as Dallas, facing an extreme run funnel defense with a reasonably high team total. Boyd is clearly the third man in this group. He has only one game over 20 DraftKings points, which came with Higgins sidelined. He’s a solid play this week, but unlikely to win you any tournaments.
The debate between Chase and Higgins is where things get interesting. Their scoring is heavily negatively correlated, so we don’t want to play them both together. (This contrasts with the Dallas situation. Throughout Cooper and Lamb’s time together, they’ve shown some positive correlation.) Chase is still priced for his early-season production, though, since Week 6, Higgins has more targets, a deeper aDOT, and more PPR points. Couple that with a cheaper price, and he’s the better play in this one – though it’s somewhat close.
Hunter Renfrow ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Las Vegas Raiders (+9) at Kansas City Chiefs (48 total)
Last time out against the Chiefs, Renfrow saw nine targets, which he turned into a 7/46/1 line. Astute readers will note that’s a sub-seven yards per catch mark. That’s the story with Renfrow, who sees lots of targets and catches most of them, and then he doesn’t go very far.
He needs a touchdown to have any kind of ceiling, and even then hasn’t topped 24.6 DraftKings points on the season. That’s a strong score at his salary, but not quite what we want for tournaments. To his credit, his aDOT has been better in recent weeks (not that a low aDOT is always bad, but more Air Yards is generally better for tournaments). With the Raiders likely needing to throw a lot this week, he’s a solid cash game play with a shot at upside for tournaments.
