In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models
Here’s where they place within our Week 14 Fantasy Rankings (as of Wednesday):
- Patrick Mahomes (1st)
- Josh Allen (2nd)
- Taysom Hill (8th)
- Cam Newton (11th)
We’ll discuss why these four are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other backs who could help you take down a tournament.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Wide Receivers on Thursday
- Tight Ends on Friday
- Running Backs on Friday/Saturday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-9) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (48 total)
Mahomes is the leader of two of our FanDuel Models for Week 14, including the Cash Game Model. Mahomes has led the Chiefs to a five-game win streak, but it hasn’t felt that way for fantasy players. He’s struggled in the box score, with only one game in that span over 15 FanDuel points.
His only good fantasy performance in this span did come against his Week 14 opponent, the Raiders. However, that was also the only road game in that span. The Chiefs host the Raiders in Week 14, bringing Mahomes’ concerning home/road splits into play. Especially in the latter part of the season:
(Mahomes home/road splits (FanDuel) in November and December.)
It’s good to be cautious of Trends like this that fly in the face of conventional logic. It’s entirely possible that it’s just variance – though that possibility declines as the sample size grows. (This trend has a 29-game sample.) However, I think there’s something to this one.
All quarterbacks playing in Arrowhead in November and December combine for a -2.08 Plus/Minus dating back to 2014. (Quarterbacks in those months at all stadiums have only a -.0.49 score, meaning Arrowhead shaves about 1.6 points from salary-based expectations.)
With all of that said, Mahomes is still a strong on-paper play against the 23rd-ranked Raiders’ passing defense. He still has Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, the latter of which stands out this week as well. The Raiders allow a +2.9 Opponent Plus/Minus to tight ends, the highest on the slate. Our projections like Mahomes, too – he’s tied for the highest Median Projection on FanDuel.
Josh Allen ($7,800 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (+3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (52.5 total)
Allen is also an interesting FanDuel play – he’s the one tied with Mahomes for the highest Median Projection. He also leads one of our Pro Models there. He’s taking on a Bucs team – in sunny Florida – that faces the most pass attempts per game, both by total attempts and percentage.
That pass rate will be crucial for Allen this week. He has five games with at least 40 pass attempts this season. In those games, he averages just over 25 FanDuel points. Of course, his rushing upside is part of the appeal with Allen. However, he still needs to throw the ball to access a big game, which is what we need at his salary.
The Bucs defend the pass well, ranking seventh in DVOA on the season. However, Vegas doesn’t see that as much of a hindrance, implying the Bills for 24.5 points this week. Given the nature of how teams attack the Bucs, that should mean most of that scoring comes from Allen.
If you’re paying up for a FanDuel quarterback this week, the decision is likely between Mahomes and Allen. While Allen is slightly more expensive, the situation for him is also better this week. Between the location and the opposing team, I prefer the Bills quarterback if you can find the salary. It’s close, though, so the better play will likely be whoever comes in with less rostership this week.
Taysom Hill ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): New Orleans Saints (-5) at New York Jets (43.5 total)
On DraftKings, our models clearly prefer a pay-down strategy at quarterback this week. Hill leads four of the five models surveyed, as well as one on FanDuel. While Hill may be a shaky real-life quarterback, his dual-threat ability makes him a solid fantasy option.
Hill went 19-for-41 last week, throwing for four interceptions. He also scored 27 DraftKings points, largely due to his 101 yards rushing. That was against a fairly tough Cowboys defense. This week, he takes on the league’s worst Jets unit.
He also should benefit from the return of Alvin Kamara to the lineup. Hill being able to check down to the talented running back makes life easier for him. Kamara can rack up yards (and touchdowns) after the catch, and it gives Hill a safety valve that could cut down on turnovers.
That said, don’t expect an entirely clean game from Hill. He’s generally wild as a passer and is also dealing with the same finger injury that sidelined Russell Wilson for about a month. Hill’s is reportedly less severe, but it’s still concerning. This makes the unconventional Hill + opposing defense stack in play here. (The Cowboys defense scored 17 points against Hill, even half of that would be a win for the $2,500 Jets.) Remember playing Jameis Winston + opposing D when he was with Tampa Bay? Same idea.
Even more traditional stacks could pay dividends this week, though, particularly Hill and Kamara paired together. If the Saints do have a big day against the terrible Jets defense, rostering both players captures the vast majority of the potential touchdown equity there. Hill leads all DraftKings quarterbacks in Pts/Sal this week.
Cam Newton ($5,400 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Carolina Panthers (-2.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (43 total)
The other viable pay-down option this week is Cam Newton, who leads one of our DraftKings Models. Newton is essentially arbitrage Hill in a variety of ways this week. He’s slightly cheaper but projects slightly worse and is taking on a bad defense – but not as bad as the Jets.
Which isn’t to say that Hill is an obvious choice over Newton, though. The $200 in salary isn’t very impactful, but there are other reasons to go with Newton. Newton is the better down-field thrower and also has the better receiving corps. DJ Moore and Robby Anderson would both be the Saints’ best receiver, and it’s not particularly close. With both players having similar rushing production, that gives Newton an arguably higher ceiling.
Christian McCaffrey is also out, which is a bit of a double-edged sword. Like Kamara, CMC’s pass-game work generally benefits his quarterback. However, the lack of McCaffrey could lead to a higher pass rate for Carolina. It could also spill over into a few extra carries for Newton, who is now the team’s best option at the goal line.
For tournaments, the decision likely comes down to ownership. I don’t see enough between these players that I’d be locked in on one or the other. Therefore, whoever gives me a bigger edge on the field is my preference. For cash, it’s more interesting. Hill is probably the better play, but if I can find a reasonable use for the extra $200 in salary, I’ll likely be clicking Newton’s name on Sunday. Newton trails only Hill in Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal in Week 14.
Other Quarterbacks With Week-Winning Upside
Tom Brady ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (52.5 total)
Brady is always worth considering, given the explosive Bucs offense and their impressive commitment to throwing the football. The Bills defense has been extremely tough on fantasy quarterbacks this year, allowing only one to go for over 20 DraftKings points – Patrick Mahomes. However, the Bucs offense is still implied for 28 points (second on the slate). If Vegas isn’t worried about Tampa’s ability to put up points this week, you shouldn’t either.
While I’m team “defense matters,” it’s also clear that players like Brady can succeed regardless of opponent. If we’re getting Brady at a significant ownership discount – as I suspect we will — he’s in play on both sites this week. Particularly FanDuel, where he has an 86% Bargain Rating.
Lamar Jackson ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) at Cleveland Browns (42.5 total)
Jackson is similar to Brady this week in that he’s a player who should always be considered but in a poor matchup/game environment. This game has the second-lowest total on the slate, and the Browns are an above-average defense.
The strength of that defense is the pass rush, though, which brings up an interesting point. I’m of the belief (but have been unable to quantify yet) that solid pass rushes actually benefit rushing quarterbacks. Players like Jackson are happy to take off and run with Myles Garret bearing down on them, while less athletic quarterbacks either take the sack or throw the ball away.
Like Brady, Jackson is likely to come in far below his normal ownership levels this week. That would make him an interesting leverage play for tournaments. Be sure to check our Minimalist Tournament Model once ownership projections run. That should give you a clear picture on who the best under the radar quarterbacks are.
Dak Prescott ($6,700 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel): Dallas Cowboys (-4) at Washington Football Team (48 total)
The Cowboys have re-committed to their passing offense as of late, throwing the ball at least 40 times in each of their last three games. That’s a number they reached only once in their prior eight games, and one I expect to continue.
There have been a couple of factors leading to the Cowboys’ shifting philosophy—first, the health of Ezekial Elliot. Elliot has been banged up and ineffective, and the Cowboys clearly don’t’ want Tony Pollard handling too many carries. They’ve also had Michael Gallup back during this stretch, as they did in Week 1. Prescott has attempted at least 40 passes in four of the five games Gallup has played this year. (The lone exception being Gallup’s first game back from injury, in which Gallup played a reduced role.)
Increased volume could be huge for Prescott this week, as the Cowboys face the Football Team’s 30th-ranked pass defense. Dallas has one of the higher implied totals on the slate as well. Prescott is a solid tournament option on both sites.
