In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Here’s where they place within our Week 13 Fantasy Rankings (as of Wednesday):
- Cooper Kupp (1st)
- Brandon Aiyuk (18th)
- Laviska Shenault (37th)
- Josh Reynolds (46th)
We’ll discuss why these four are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Wednesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday/Friday
- Running Backs on Friday/Saturday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Wide Receivers
Cooper Kupp ($9,000 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (-13) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (47.5 total)
Kupp is the top receiver in our rankings this week and is obviously one of (if not the) strongest plays on the slate. He leads all of our FanDuel Pro Models, as well as one on DraftKings. Despite being the most expensive receiver, he leads all receivers on FanDuel in Pts/Sal.
With that out of the way, we’re going to look at things through a bit of a different lens this week. Frequently in the fantasy industry, we tend to focus on the positives. “Here’s all the reasons player x is good this week.” Those are obvious with Kupp but include his dominant target share. The Jaguars’ 32nd-ranked pass defense and the Rams’ 30+ point total.
Let’s look at some reasons why Kupp could justifiably be a fade this week instead. These reasons are mostly DraftKings specific since fading Kupp on FanDuel is a much harder case to make. First is the obvious question of Projected Ownership. Week 12 reminded us, in a big way, that when the field condenses around a player, we have a lot more to gain by leaving them off our lineups than by putting him on. While our Ownership Projections aren’t out yet, I expect Kupp to be near the top.
Of course, we’d still want Kupp in our lineup if he puts up a monster score, regardless of ownership. However, that may not be such a sure thing this week. His odds of totally failing are fairly low, but a low-20s score from Kupp does you no favors at his salary.
The Rams are massive 13-point favorites this week. In the three games in which they’ve won by more than 10 points, the Rams have attempted less than 29 passes on average. Even at Kupps 32% target share, that works out to less than 10 targets for Kupp. He could still get there if a few of those go for touchdowns, but his odds are decreased.
Additionally, the Rams seem to have a desire to get new addition Odell Beckham involved in the offense. Beckham matched Kupp’s 10 targets last week. In a game that projects for very low throwing volume, Kupp’s role could be smaller than we anticipate.
None of which is to say Kupp is a bad play. He’ll likely be highly involved until the Rams get a big lead, with a chance at a ceiling game relying on whether he gets the touchdowns or they end up elsewhere. At his salary, though, we need that ceiling game to have a chance in tournaments. The odds of that happening might just be a lot smaller than the field thinks.
Brandon Aiyuk ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks (45.5 total)
Aiyuk leads one of our Pro Models on DraftKings, where his salary is far enough away from the top receivers to be in consideration. The second-year Aiyuk has turned it on as of late. He was seemingly in Kyle Shannahan’s doghouse early in the season but has emerged as a legitimate weapon over the past five games.
He leads the team in that span with 32 targets, good for over six a game. Much of that was helped by Deebo Samuel being used to fill in at running back — but Samuel is out of the lineup with an injury this week. That frees up Aiyuk to pick up some of the 29 targets vacated by Deebo.
To a degree, playing a top receiver when their teammate is out is overrated. It’s not like Aiyuk can run his normal routes and Samuel’s, the way a running back can assume all of the vacated carries when a teammate is injured. While the targets will likely increase a bit, frequently, the offense struggles enough to counteract that. That downside is less of a problem for San Francisco this week.
The Seahawks still have to respect San Francisco’s ground game, which is seventh in offensive DVOA. They also have to account for George Kittle, who’s scored three times in the past four weeks. Both of which should free up Aiyuk against the Seahawks’ 27th ranked pass defense.
Even without a bump in either efficiency or volume, Aiyuk’s recent game logs are encouraging at his price. Four of his last five games have gone for double-digit points, including a 21.5 point performance that is nearly 4x his current salary. As such, his DraftKings Pts/Sal is second on the slate, behind only our next player.
Laviska Shenault ($4,400 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (+12.5) at Los Angeles Rams (47.5 total)
Shenault finally saw the role increase we’d all been waiting for in Week 12. After the loss of Jamal Agnew, the Jaguars decided to give him a chance, with him seeing a team-high nine targets. The loss of Dan Arnold helped Shenault as well – between him and Agnew, over 30% of the Jaguars’ targets were missing from the lineup.
Shenault was fairly underwhelming, catching five of those targets for only 33 yards. Still, he’s way too cheap for his expected target share – especially in a game where the Jaguars are massive underdogs.
The Rams’ strong defense (fifth against the pass) likely means it will be hard for Shenault to have a breakout game here. The nature of his targets (5.63 average depth of target) means he has to produce after the catch. That’s significantly harder to do against the Rams.
Still, on full-PPR DraftKings, Shenault is likely to post at least an acceptable score by virtue of double-digit targets. Shenault leads the slate in Pts/Sal, as well as two of our Pro Models.
Josh Reynolds ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel): Detroit Lions (+7) vs. Minnesota Vikings (46.5 total)
Reynolds has only played two games as a Lion this season. One of those was without starting quarterback Jared Goff, so we’re working with a very limited sample size. In that game, Goff seemed to key in on his former teammate, with five of his 25 pass attempts heading Reynolds’ way.
Normally, I’d point out that we can expect more overall passing from the Lions given the spread. However, that hasn’t really been the case with head coach Dan Campbell calling plays. Still, 25 is tied for the fewest passes we’ve seen from Goff this year. Against a far more explosive opposing offense, we should expect that number to increase a bit here.
Even better than the target share was what Reynolds did with them. He caught three of them, including a 29-yard touchdown. His aDOT with the Lions of 22.5 is well beyond what anyone else was seeing from Goff. If he can have a solid deep-threat role, he really only needs one big catch to pay off his Week 13 salary.
Furthermore, it’s a tremendous matchup for Lions receivers. The Vikings are allowing a slate-leading +2.0 Opponent Plus/Minus score to the position. With Reynolds as arguably the best of the Lions group (based on a very limited sample), that’s another good sign.
Reynolds is the leader in our Cash Game Model on DraftKings this week. If he sees another five or so targets, he would absolutely be a positive in cash lineups. Given his chances of seeing more than that, he also has some ceiling for tournaments.
Other Wide Receivers with Week-Winning Upside
Justin Jefferson ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel: Minnesota Vikings (-7) at Detroit Lions (46.5 total)
Given the nature of their pricing, top receivers are generally a better bargain on FanDuel. Even so, it’s somewhat uncommon for them to be outright cheaper there. That’s noteworthy for Jefferson, who could be an interesting pivot from Kupp this week.
He had a disappointing Week 12 while Adam Thielen went off, scoring eight fewer FanDuel points than Thielen. That makes this a solid “buy low” situation for Jefferson, who still had nine targets last week. With the Vikings lacking Dalvin Cook this week, there should be a few extra passes to go around too. He trails only Kupp in Ceiling Projections.
Keenan Allen ($7,500 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (+3) at Cincinnati Bengals (51 total)
Allen is also cheaper on FanDuel, but that makes a bit more sense. His high-volume, low-touchdown role suits DraftKing’s full-PPR scoring much better. He had another double-digit target game last week, his fifth in a row. Allen is a high-floor, moderate ceiling play this week. If he can find the 100-yard bonus or a touchdown, he’ll likely end up as one of the best points-per-dollar options when the dust settles Sunday evening.
Diontae Johnson ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (44 total)
Johnson’s price is creeping up extraordinarily slowly for a player who’s drawn at least 13 targets in five of the last six games. As was the case last week, his volume is far greater than his price would imply. With the Steelers as underdogs this week, there’s no reason to expect it to drop this time. It’s also a good matchup for the Pittsburgh passing game, with Baltimore ranking fifth against the run but 24th against the pass.
Johnson is a borderline must-play in cash games, with slate-breaking upside in tournaments.
Ja’Marr Chase ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (51 total)
While I’m personally higher on the Bengals’ run game in this one, it’s still a solid environment for the explosive Chase. He only saw three targets in last week’s rout of the Steelers. However, it’s likely that the Chargers keep pace long enough that the talented rookie sees more action this week. That’s great for tournaments since his Week 12 disappointment might dissuade players from clicking him. He’s within the top five in Ceiling Projection on both sites this week.
