Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
There are five running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models
Here’s where they place within our Week 11 Fantasy Rankings (as of Friday):
- Dalvin Cook (3rd)
- AJ Dillon (7th)
- Nick Chubb (10th)
- James Conner (13th)
- Myles Gaskin (14th)
We’ll discuss why these five are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other backs who could help you take down a tournament.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Monday
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Running Backs
Dalvin Cook ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel): Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (47.5 total)
Cook is an outstanding value on FanDuel this week, where he leads the Cash Game Model. His Vikings are taking on the Packers this week in a sneaky-good spot for running backs. The Packers feature a tough pass defense (8th in DVOA) but have struggled against the run this season, ranking 24th.
That’s good news for Cook, who’s averaging just under 20 rushes as well as four targets per game for the Vikings. As long as the game stays in control, he’s the clear centerpiece of their offense. The Vikings rank in the bottom 10 in pass rate over expectation this season.
Vegas is expecting this game to stay reasonable for the Vikings too. The Vikings are slight underdogs, with the spread creeping down throughout the week from its 49 open. Decreasing totals are probably a signal that we can expect more rushing in this one. I looked at how Cook has performed when the total has dropped by at least a point from its opening number with our Trends Tool:
Solid, if unspectacular, with a decent sample size. However, what you can’t see in the image is Cook’s “upside” score (viewable while editing any of the metrics). It’s at 12% in these games, well above his usual 8% rate. His ownership is lower as well, checking in at almost half his usual 9.9% rate.
Fantasy players probably look at sinking totals as a negative sign — we want to target high-total games after all. However, for teams like the Vikings who want to control the game on the ground as much as possible, it’s probably a good sign.
Cook’s salary makes him a slightly more challenging play on DraftKings, but he’s very much in play on FanDuel. He’s third in Median Projection there, trailing only Nick Chubb and Christian McCaffrey while coming at a discount.
AJ Dillon ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings (47.5 total)
With Aaron Jones out this week, Dillon will be stepping into a starting role for the Packers. The Vikings defense is similar to Green Bay’s, ranking sixth against the run and 28th against the pass. The struggles start up front, with the Vikings sporting the league’s worst adjusted line yards metric of 4.94. Green Bay’s offensive line ranks ninth, making this the biggest mismatch of the week.
Dillon has been excellent in relief of Jones so far on the season, with a similar yards per carry mark. He’s also surpassed Jones as a receiver — at least statistically. Dillon has both a better catch rate and significantly higher yards per reception than Jones.
That gives him a bit of game script independence here, as he’s likely to rarely come off the field regardless of the score. The Packers are ok with using running backs as workhorses for limited amounts of time, too: Last year, Jamaal Williams had at least 22 touches in both games with Jones out.
Dillon’s matchup and workload rival any of the higher-priced backs on the slate, with the possible exception of McCaffrey. He’s not priced like those backs, though, which leads to him having the best Pts/Sal of any main slate running back in Week 11. Dillon leads multiple Pro Models on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week.
Nick Chubb ($7,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Cleveland Browns (-11.5) vs. Detroit Lions (43.5 total)
Speaking of offensive line mismatches, Cleveland’s dominant unit is in action against the Lions in Week 11. Pro Football Focus actually has this one as the bigger mismatch (although line yards favor Green Bay). That’s great news for Chubb, who already leads the NFL in yards per carry on the season.
We could see the perfect storm of volume for Chubb this week. He was off last week, but due to COVID-19 and not an injury. That means he should be well-rested and able to take on a bigger load. The Browns also expect Kareem Hunt to return last week (he was reportedly “getting close” for Week 11). That will lessen the load on Chubb, but it makes sense to lean more heavily on him until then. Finally, the game script is clearly excellent for Chubb, with the Browns as 11.5-point favorites.
Backs like Chubb with limited receiving roles always perform better as favorites, but the splits with Chubb in particular as a big favorite is stark:
However, there are concerns with rostering Chubb in tournaments. Over the past two seasons, Chubb only has one game over 30 points on DraftKings, and that game, he went for 33.3 points. Scores in the upper 20s are great, but at Chubb’s current salary not quite enough. Alvin Kamara (who costs $300 more on DraftKings) is less consistent than Chubb. However, Kamara has had five games over 30 points the past two seasons, with two of them over 47.
Chubb should have no problem getting into the low 20s this week against the Lions, making him a solid DraftKings play. However, for him to pay off in tournaments, you’d likely need the rest of the top running backs to fail to find their ceiling.
James Conner ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks (48.5 total)
Conner leads the Cash Game Model on DraftKings, thanks to a top-three Pts/Sal score. Conner is serving as the Cardinals’ lead back for at least two more weeks, with co-starter Chase Edmonds ineligible to come off injured reserve until Week 14 (the Cardinals have a week 12 bye).
Even before Edmonds went down, Conner’s red-zone role made him a solid fantasy option. He’s now the league’s leader in rushing touchdowns, but scored six of them in eight weeks of shared action. The real difference for Conner has been in the pass game. He’s been targeted nine times in the two games Edmonds missed entirely, compared to five times in the prior eight games.
While the increased receiving work is nice, it’s still the touchdowns that draw us to Conner. With the Cardinals having a reasonably high 25-point total this week, he should have his opportunities. With Kyler missing last week, the Cardinals offense as a whole struggled. That’s a problem for a touchdown-dependent player — if the team can’t move the ball, he’ll have limited chances.
With that said, the matchup with Seattle is favorable for backs, regardless of who’s under center. The Seahawks trail only the Jets in Opponent Plus/Minus allowed on the slate. Seattle allows opposing backs to score an astounding five points over their salary expectations — which works out to 16.77 points for Conner this week (very near our Median Projection for him).
Conner’s receiving work sans-Edmonds gives him a solid floor this week, and he has serious touchdown-driven upside (particularly with Murray active).
What more do you need at only $6,100 on DraftKings?
Myles Gaskin ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (-3.5) at New York Jets (45 total)
As mentioned in the Conner section, the Jets have the league’s worst Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to backs, at positive 7.5 (DraftKings) and 5.8 (FanDuel). With Gaskin handling the bulk of Miami’s running back work the past four weeks (19.25 opportunities per game), it’s a smash spot for him.
This isn’t a purely matchup-driven play either. Gaskin has had a solid receiving role all season — ranking tenth among running backs in share of his team’s targets. Now that he’s being used as their primary rusher, it’s a solid combination. Gaskin has seen at least 12 carries in each of the last four games, after only having one game with double-digit carries through the first six weeks.
Gaskin has a better price on FanDuel, which is reflected in his 89% Bargain Rating there. He trails only Dillon in Pts/Sal and leads one of our Pro Models for Week 11.
Other Running Backs With Week-Winning Upside
Christian McCaffrey ($8,900 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel): Carolina Panthers (-3) vs. Washington Football Team (43 total)
Last week was a glimpse of vintage McCaffrey, with CMC handling 13 carries and a massive 10 targets, all of which he turned into receptions. That was all while playing only two-thirds of the snaps. I expect that snap rate to creep up slightly in the coming weeks, with the Panthers easing McCaffrey back from injury. While I doubt we see an every-down role again, expect closer to 80% soon enough. (For what it’s worth, the Panther’s 66 offensive snaps were on the lower end anyway, with half of their games going over 70 on the season).
The return of Cam Newton at quarterback is the big story, though. Newton’s incessant checking down to McCaffrey is what made the running back a star in the first place. With Newton expected to start, target counts of eight or more should become the norm for McCaffrey again. While it probably doesn’t matter (given his dual-threat ability), Washington also struggles against running backs, allowing a +3.3 Opponent Plus/Minus rate.
CMC leads all running backs in Median and Ceiling Projection this week.
Jonathan Taylor ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Indianapolis Colts (+7) at Buffalo Bills (49.5 total)
Taylor has one of the highest weekly ceilings, but he’s a bit scary this week. For starters, he has a limited receiving role (37 targets in ten games, with Nyheim Hines having 39) in a game where his Colts are touchdown underdogs. Next, the matchup with the Bills is the toughest in the league. They rank third in DVOA against the run while facing the fifth-highest pass play rate in the league.
Still, Taylor has a chance of blowing open any game with his big-play ability. He has two runs of more than 75 yards on the season. Taylor is the top choice in our Minimalist Tournament Model on DraftKings this week, thanks to his low Ownership Projection.
Ezekiel Elliot ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (56 total)
Dallas is only a slight 2.5-point underdog to the Chiefs this week, in a game with the week’s highest total. While we’d need Dallas to control this game for Elliot to have a chance at posting a monster score, that outcome isn’t that far-fetched. Kansas City has a negative Opponent Plus/Minus score to backs, but that’s largely due to limited volume, not efficiency. Teams have thrown at a high clip against the Chiefs, but their run defense ranks 26th in DVOA. If Zeke scores an early touchdown or two and puts the Cowboys ahead, he could be in for a big day.
Darrell Williams ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (56 total)
With Clyde Edwards-Helaire still missing, Williams will be the starter for the Chiefs against the Cowboys this week. While the Cowboys have a solid pass defense (third in DVOA), they rank 18th against the rush. Similar to Elliot, if the Chiefs get off to a lead, the path of least resistance to holding on to it is through Williams. He’s handled at least 19 opportunities (carries + targets) in each of the last three games, which is a steal at his current price.
D’Andre Swift ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Detroit Lions (+11.5) at Cleveland Browns (43.5 total)
Even if Jamaal Williams remains out, we probably shouldn’t expect another 33 rush attempts for Swift this week. On the other hand, we could see double-digit targets, with the Lions as huge underdogs in Cleveland. On a team completely devoid of wide receiver talent, Detroit might have little choice but to throw the ball to Swift if they fall behind. Keep an eye on the status of quarterback Jared Goff though: backup Tim Boyle profiles as more of a gunslinger who will press the ball downfield than check-down-artist Goff. Swift has a top-six Ceiling Projection on both sites this week.
