In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models
There are three quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models
Here’s where they place within our Week 11 Fantasy Rankings (as of Tuesday):
- Josh Allen (1st)
- Lamar Jackson (2nd)
- Cam Newton (15th)
We’ll discuss why these are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other backs who could help you take down a tournament.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Running Backs on Wednesday
- Wide Receivers on Thursday
- Tight Ends on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Quarterbacks
Josh Allen ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-7) vs. Indianapolis Colts (50 total)
Relative to the general perception, I’ve been fairly down on Allen the past few weeks. The Bills’ passing rate — particularly in blowout wins — has been lower than last year. Further, Allen only has three rushing touchdowns through nine games (he had three through the first four weeks last year and finished with eight). That’s been mostly correct, with Allen falling short of his projections each of the past two weeks. However, that should change this week.
Both of the Bills’ last two opponents (Jacksonville and the Jets) featured such poor offenses that it was hard to project a shootout. While things went well off script in the Jacksonville game, the Jets game was an example of this pitfall. With the Jets only scoring three points until the fourth quarter, the Bills were able to keep the ball on the ground for much of the contest. They scored four rushing touchdowns, none of them by Allen. He also threw only 28 passes.
With the Colts coming to town this week, the Bills will need some production from Allen. The Colts rank eighth in points per game on the season (Jacksonville and the Jets are both in the bottom six). While Buffalo is still a significant favorite, they aren’t a prohibitive one this week.
As we so often do, let’s turn to our Trends Tool to see if this theory bears out:
Allen, when favored by 10 or more points
(Josh Allen when favored by six to eight points)
Notice any differences? Of course, these are somewhat limited sample sizes, but it bears paying attention to. The Bills seem happy to take the load of Allen’s shoulders in games they easily control.
The matchup also tilts Buffalo to the air, with the Colts ranking as the second-best run defense (by DVOA) in the league but 23rd against the pass. The Bills have shown an ability (and willingness) to control games through short passing when leading, which might be their best option this week.
Allen leads our Tournament Model on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week. He also has our highest Median Projection on DraftKings and trails our next quarterback only slightly on FanDuel.
Lamar Jackson ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-6) at Chicago Bears (45.5 total)
Jackson leads at least one of our Pro Models on both sites this week, including the Cash Game Model on FanDuel, which makes sense since he’s the leader in Median Projection there (as noted above) despite being cheaper than Josh Allen.
To be honest, there’s nothing spectacular about the matchup this week. The Bears are a below-average defense, but not bad enough to reasonably boost expectations on Lamar. They also play painfully slow, ranking dead last in pace of play in a neutral game script (game within six points in either direction).
However, that’s never really mattered for Lamar. His combination of rushing ability and newfound passing improvements make him matchup (and game script) independent. I’ve noted it before in this space, but his yards-per-attempt (YPA) and passing yards per game continue to be at a career-high, as are his passing attempts. While I don’t need to convince you of his rushing ability, his rushing attempts per game is also at a career-best. The Ravens have almost entirely abandoned their running backs, which should only continue with the release of Le’Veon Bell.
Jackson has been inconsistent this year, though. That makes him a somewhat scary option for cash games. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus five times on FanDuel this year and six times on DraftKings. However, in the three/four games he’s gone over his salary expectation, he’s averaging 39.6 DraftKings and 33 FanDuel points. When he gets there, it’s in a big way.
This final nugget is probably not actionable, but something I found interesting nonetheless. In Jackson’s two games below 20 DraftKings points, both came on a short week. (Thursday Night Football this week, and a Week 6 Sunday game following a Monday Night Football appearance). This week, the Ravens have a 10-day break between games. Does it mean anything?
Probably not, but it’s still a final check in Jackson’s favor.
Cam Newton ($5,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Carolina Panthers (-3.5) vs. Washington Football Team (43.5)
I gotta tell you; it felt great to type “Carolina Panthers” after typing. Newton’s name up there. The former MVP arrived in the place where it all began with a bang, scoring two touchdowns (one rushing, one receiving) on only nine offensive snaps last week. Obviously, we’ll need him to be the full starter to roster him in DFS, but that could be coming in Week 11.
The Panthers haven’t officially named Newton the starter, but it seems more likely than not given the deal he was signed to. However, DraftKings and FanDuel appear to be split on his prospects of taking over. DraftKings has him priced barely above backup level (with Tyrod Taylor the only projected starter cheaper than him). FanDuel, on the other hand, has him as the eighth-most expensive quarterback.
This obviously makes him a screaming value on DraftKings with a 99% Bargain Rating. He’s the clear leader in Pts/Sal there. Of course, there’s a degree of risk that he’s named the starter but still rotates out on some packages. Hopefully, we’ll have a better idea of his expected usage later in the week.
Presuming he starts, it’s a nice landing spot against the Football Team’s 29th-ranked passing defense. Six (of the nine) quarterbacks they’ve faced this year have scored at least 24.66 DraftKings points on the season. Newton’s goalline role seems as strong as ever as well, with two rushing attempts within scoring distance on Sunday. If anything, this could actually be a larger part of his game than it was in his previous stint with Carolina. The Panthers seem to (finally) have an interest in saving the wear and tear on Christian McCaffrey following his latest injury.
To expand on the latter point, CMC saw only three of the Panthers’ 10 red-zone rushes in Week 10. He also only had 13 total carries but was heavily used in the pass game with 10 targets, which also benefits Newton.
As long as we get solid news about his role, Newton is a clear value on DraftKings this week. It’s good to have him back.
Other Quarterbacks With Week-Winning Upside:
Patrick Mahomes ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (56 total)
Mahomes is always worthy of consideration, but this week could be special. The Chiefs have the highest Vegas total on the slate (both team and implied). They also throw the ball at the fourth-highest rate in the league, so those points are most likely to come from Mahomes. Mahomes had a bad three-week stretch but seems to have found his groove again, with over 400 yards passing and five touchdowns last week.
“The reports of my demise are greatly exaggerated – Mark Twain” -Patrick Mahomes (Michael Scott.)
Dak Prescott ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel): Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (56 total)
Facing off with Mahomes is Dak Prescott. As regular readers know, playing the quarterback opposite Patrick Mahomes (almost) always has value. That’s especially true for high-end quarterbacks (loosely defined here as a DraftKings salary over $6,500).
Take an extra look at that consistency score. Dak is a rock-solid cash game option (if you aren’t paying down for Newton) and could be the best tournament play of the week, depending on his Ownership Projection.
Value Quarterbacks:
Tua Tagovailoa ($5,500 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (-3) at New York Jets (45 total)
All Tua has done since coming back from his injury is ball. He had back-to-back 25 point performances, then a solid (considering) 16.2 DraftKings points against the stout Bills defense. (The Bills allow an average of 12.5 DraftKings points to the position on the season). Then in limited Week 10 action, he goes 8-for-13 with 158 yards against the Ravens. While the Ravens defense isn’t great, they’re a ton better than the 32nd-ranked Jets.
As an added bonus, Will Fuller is expected to return in Week 11. His deep-ball ability adds a bit of ceiling to Tua’s game. Tua’s FanDuel price makes playing him there a bit prohibitive. However, our models like him on DraftKings. His Pts/Sal is fourth on the slate.
Derek Carr ($5,900 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): Las Vegas Raiders (-3) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (49.5)
Carr trails only Newton in Pts/Sal on DraftKings in Week 11. Oddsmakers have given this game the second-highest total on the slate, which bodes well for Carr. The Bengals have a top-10 rush defense but struggle against the pass (ranking 21st).
The Raiders throw the ball at the sixth-highest rate in the league this year. That should increase this week, given the defense opposite them. Carr has had his struggles — and brings nothing to the table rushing — but should also fly under the radar this week.
I wouldn’t trust him in cash (given the strength of Newton in particular.).However, he’s a solid tournament dart throw.
