In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Tight Ends in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four tight ends atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Here’s where they place within our Week 10 Fantasy Rankings (as of Wednesday evening):
- Dalton Schultz (7th)
- Dallas Goedert (9th)
- Jared Cook (18th)
- Tyler Conklin (19th)
We’ll discuss why these four are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Tuesday
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz ($5,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Dallas Cowboys (-9) vs. Atlanta Falcons (54.5 total)
Schultz leads four of our FanDuel Models this week — including the Cash Game Model — as well as one on DraftKings. Expect to see Schultz near the top of our models more frequently in the next few weeks. He’s been part of a tight end duo so far this season, but fellow Cowboy tight end Blake Jarwin is now on injured reserve.
Even with the limited workload, Schultz has been a top-five PPR tight end on the season. He’s done it with insane efficiency — he ranks eighth in targets. We can now expect those targets to improve. In two games without Jarwin so far, he’s averaging 6.5 targets per contest.
With so much of tight end production coming from touchdowns, we always are looking for tight ends with a good chance of finding paydirt. Nobody on the Week 10 slate fits that bill more than Jarwin. The Cowboys have the highest implied Vegas total on the slate, and Schultz is fourth among main slate tight ends in red-zone opportunities per game.
Schultz isn’t the most athletic tight end. However, he’s shown surprising ability with the ball in his hands. He has nearly double the yards after the catch (YAC) as Kyle Pitts, for example, on one more catch. This gives him some upside to go with his solid floor.
Schultz is third in Median Projection on the main slate and has a realistic shot at multi-touchdown upside against the 31st-ranked Falcons defense.
Dallas Goedert ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (+3) at Denver Broncos (44.5 total)
Like Schultz, Goedert finally has the tight end position to himself. Although in Goedert’s case, the change is permanent. Longtime starter Zach Ertz was traded away to the Cardinals. The long-awaited freeing of Goedert has shown some early promise. Without Ertz, he’s averaging six targets and almost 11 DraftKings points per game. Before that, he was under four targets and under 10 points per game.
The targets are especially impressive given the Eagles’ commitment to the run game. Jalen Hurts has only attempted 31 passes over the past two weeks, with 13 of them going to Goedert. That’s a 41% target share — Darren Waller leads all tight ends on the season with a 23% target share.
Thus, the question becomes how sustainable Philadelphia’s plans to #establishit are. It’s certainly possible that it’s their plan moving forward. Given Hurts’ struggles as a passer, it’s not an entirely unreasonable plan. Even so, no team in the last decade (at least — that’s as far as I looked) has attempted under 25 passes per game over the course of the season. Given Goedert’s outsized target share post-Ertz, that could lead to some big numbers.
There’s no guarantee it starts this week. The Broncos have the worst Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to tight ends on the slate (worst for the offense, that is) at -3.1 on DraftKings. Nothing beats volume, though, so Goedert has serious upside here.
Given the matchup, I’d avoid him in cash games. However, he leads one of our FanDuel models, so he’s in play for tournaments.
Jared Cook ($3,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (52.5 total)
On a week with many of the top tight end options absent from the main slate (Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Darren Waller), paying down at tight end could be the best strategy. Given the high variance nature of the position, cheaper players frequently have a similar floor as high-end options. That’s certainly the case for Cook, who leads all DraftKings tight ends in Pts/Sal.
Cook is certainly a punt, though. The presence of Mike Williams limits Cook’s red-zone role (only .69 opportunities per game, 10th among main slate tight ends). The 34-year-old Cook is also not the explosive athlete he once was. We aren’t rostering Cook expecting a monster game.
But still, he’s a solid play — particularly in cash games. Cook is averaging almost nine DraftKings points per game and has yet to be held under 3.9 points. While those aren’t gaudy numbers, avoiding zeroes is sometimes all we can ask for players at Cook’s price point.
He leads our Cash Game Model on DraftKings this week.
Tyler Conklin ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel): Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
For a slight premium, we could pivot from Cook up to Conklin in the same game this week. Both players have similar profiles this year. However, Conklin has come on strong as of late, scoring at least 9.5 points in each of the last three weeks.
It’s a much better matchup on paper for Conklin, though. The Chargers are allowing opposing tight ends a +0.5 Opponent Plus/Minus on the season, compared to a -2.8 score for the Vikings (against Cook.) Let’s look at how tight ends historically perform in similar situations, per our Trends tool:
Nothing huge, but worth noting. Especially considering our Plus/Minus score takes salary into account — we should expect Conklin to outscore Cook by more than his salary would indicate alone.
Picking between these two is probably a 60/40 proportion at worst, but my money is on Conklin this week. The volume is nearly identical, so I’ll take the matchup as a tie-breaker.
Conklin leads one of our Pro Models on DraftKings this week.
Other Tight Ends With Week-Winning Upside
Kyle Pitts ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Atlanta Falcons (+9) at Dallas Cowboys (54.5 total)
After back-to-back performances of at least 26 DraftKings points, Pitts has struggled the past two weeks, with only 12.5 points combined. It’s probably no coincidence that those games have come without Calvin Ridley. Defenses are able to key in on Pitts due to the lack of other options in this Falcons passing attack.
With that said, Pitts is still the league’s most explosive tight end and the top option in the Falcons offense. As nine-point underdogs, the Falcons will likely need to take some shots downfield. Their best chance at completing them is by directing them to Pitts.
Pitts has the highest Ceiling Projection (and salary) of any Week 10 tight end.
TJ Hockenson ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Detroit Lions (+8.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (42.5 total)
Hockenson is the other premium tight end on the main slate this week. Like Pitts, he’s the top option in a struggling offense. Also, like Pitts, his team is a heavy road underdog. Hockenson trails only Kelce in catches by a tight end this season (he’s behind Kelce and Waller in targets).
His targets aren’t quite as valuable as Pitts’s are, with an average depth of target (aDOT) four yards shallower than Pitts. This makes Hockenson a slightly better DraftKings (and cash game) play. Shorter targets are more likely to lead to receptions but less likely to lead to big scores. Not that Hockenson’s ceiling isn’t there — he has three games over 18.9 points on DraftKings this season.
Value Tight Ends
While model standouts Conklin and Cook certainly fit the bill, they aren’t the only punt tight ends worth considering on DraftKings.
Dan Arnold ($3,500 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel) Jacksonville Jaguars (+10.5) at Indianapolis Colts (47.5 total)
Arnold has 30 targets over the past four weeks. That’s 7.5, which would be fifth in the NFL if sustained over the entire season. Arnold also has more receiving yards than any other tight end who’s yet to score a touchdown. As we know, touchdowns generally follow yards, not the other way around.
Of course, there aren’t many touchdowns to go around for Jacksonville, but he’s still well below what one would expect from a player with his volume. While the Colts defense is tough overall, they have the slate’s friendliest Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to tight ends at +4.1. If we were to add that to Arnold’s 7.46 implied points, we get 11.56— not bad at $3,500
Geoff Swain ($2,500 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Tennessee Titans (-3) vs. New Orleans Saints (44.5 total)
If you need to go all the way down to the stone-minimum salary at tight end, Swain might be your best choice. He’s led the Titans tight ends with nine targets over the past two weeks. Our projections currently have him at 5.66 DraftKings points — certainly not great, but the clear leader among tight ends priced at the minimum price on DraftKings.
