Top Running Backs in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four running backs atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models
Here’s where they place within our Week 10 Fantasy Rankings (as of Friday):
- Najee Harris (1st)
- Dalvin Cook (3rd)
- Ezekiel Elliott (8th)
- Leonard Fournette (12th)
We’ll discuss why these four are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other backs who could help you take down a tournament.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Monday
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Running Backs
Najee Harris ($7,900 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel): Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5) vs. Detroit Lions (42.5 total)
Harris is the RB5 in DraftKings, scoring through the first half of 2021. He’s got there primarily through his receiving work, ranking second in both receptions and targets on the year. The Steelers have tried to get him going on the ground (he’s second in carries behind only Derrick Henry), but the efficiency just hasn’t been there as Harris ranks 10th in rushing yards.
He clearly stands out in terms of volume. With Henry out for the year, no back has a higher weekly touch expectation. Add to that at least one, and possibly two, of Pittsburgh’s starting wide receivers missing this week. That should reasonably raise his target share as well. This week though, he might just combine those touches with some efficiency.
The Steelers are taking on a Lions defense that ranks 25th against the run on the season. The Steelers’ offensive line has struggled to produce space for Najee, ranking 30th in adjusted line yards. However, this might be the get-right matchup they need since the Lions’ defensive front ranks 24th.
In six of the Lions’ eight games this season, opposing running backs have scored at least 30 DraftKings points. That’s to all the running backs on the opposing team, mind you. However, Harris is basically “all the running backs” for Pittsburgh, playing a slate high 85% of his team’s snaps.
Harris is priced fairly aggressively on FanDuel, where his large receiving role is less important as well. However, he’s very reasonable on DraftKings. He trails only Jonathon Taylor in Median and Ceiling Projections this week on DraftKings and is $200 cheaper.
Harris leads one of our Pro Models there.
Dalvin Cook ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (53 total)
The Vikings’ lead back is back to full strength after missing some time with injury. Over the past three games, he’s seen almost 24 opportunities (targets + carries) per contest. Cook stands out on FanDuel this week, where he’s the leader in two Pro Models, including the Cash Game Model.
The matchup sets up very well for Cook this week. The Chargers are perhaps the most significant run funnel in the league. They rank ninth in DVOA against the pass and dead last against the run. With this game having a sky-high 53 point total, it’s very likely Minnesota gets some scoring done on the ground.
“Slight underdog” is also the sweet spot for Dalvin’s performance. When the Vikings get ahead, they tend to ease off their star running back a bit. When they’re behind too much, they’re forced to throw (and Cook’s receiving role is moderate at best).
Let’s see how he has performed as an underdog of six or fewer points, per our Trends tool:
Cook as a six-point or less underdog
Take note of the ownership levels on Dalvin in these games. Players typically prefer favored running backs, which gives us some leverage on Dalvin this week. While it’s not pictured in the screenshot of this trend, his upside rate jumps from nine to 14 % as well.
Dalvin is a better play on FanDuel, where he holds an 89% Bargain Rating. He’s a better play there in general as his receiving role lags behind other top options.
Ezekiel Elliott ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (54.5 total)
With the Cowboys’ offense falling flat in Week 9, Elliott had a disappointing game. However, Vegas is expecting a rebound from the Cowboys this week. The Cowboys are implied for a slate-leading 32 points as 9.5-point home favorites against the Falcons. With the Cowboys’ commitment to pounding the rock, that could mean good news for Elliot this week.
Elliott’s splits in Cowboys’ wins vs. losses this year are stark. In two losses, Zeke has 21 carries for 84 yards. In their six wins, he has 538 yards on 107 carries. Provided we think oddsmakers are correct with the Cowboys line; it’s a great situation for Elliott.
It’s also a non-threatening matchup against the league’s 31st-ranked overall defense. The Cowboys have shown their preference to running the ball this year, so with both methods of attack being viable, I think this game tilts run-heavy.
The biggest concern with Elliott this week is his health. He was seen with a heating pad on his knee during parts of last week’s game, and the Cowboys could reduce his workload if this one trunks into a blowout.
Zeke is tied for the lead in Pts/Sal on both sites this week. He’s also the only back to lead at least one of our models on DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 10.
Leonard Fournette ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5) at Washington Football Team (51 total)
Fournette is the running back tied with Elliot for the best Pts/Sal on DraftKings, which explains his presence atop two of our models, including the Cash Game model on DraftKings.
While Fournette’s rushing usage has been spotty (as the Bucs occasionally remember they have Ronald Jones on the roster), Lenny’s receiving work is solid. Tampa has little interest in running the ball anyway, so Fournette’s ability in the pass game is crucial.
He’s averaging five targets per game over the past five contests, but that role could expand this week. Antonio Brown is expected to be out again, and Chris Godwin seems truly questionable. Rob Gronkowski is out as well, making Fournette effectively the No. 2 option for Tom Brady through the air.
We can still project Fournette for a dozen or so rushes in addition to this pass-game work, giving him a very valuable combination of roles in what’s expected to be a lopsided Tampa win. Uncle Len is a solid cash game play and makes sense in tournaments too. Particularly if all the news around running backs this week steers the field away from him.
Slate-Breaking Running Backs to Monitor
D’Ernest Johnson ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Cleveland Browns (+2) at New England Patriots (45 total)
Both Nick Chubb and Demetric Felton had positive covid tests this week for the Browns. With Kareem Hunt still on injured reserve, that leaves Johnson as potentially the only running back active for Cleveland.
Obviously, at his current salary, that would immediately make Johnson the strongest play on the slate. We got burned by that logic in the past. Kareem Hunt disappointed without Chubb in Week 6 against Arizona. However, that game had both Johnson and Felton active, as well as being against a much tougher defense than New England.
Since Chubb isn’t officially ruled out, our models still have Chubb as the lead back in Cleveland. It’s fairly unlikely that Chubb (and Felton) are able to get cleared in time for Sunday’s game, although we should know for sure by Saturday night.
We currently have “Clevland running backs” projected for over 26 DraftKings points. Johnson wouldn’t necessarily assume all of that, but even 70% of that level is a must-play at his salary.
And 70% might be conservative. Johnson has been very efficient in his chances this year, rushing for over 5.0 yards per carry. He doesn’t have enough carries to qualify as a league leader, but he would be eighth among running backs if he did.
Mark Ingram ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): New Orleans Saints (+3) at Tenessee Titans
Ingram picked up right where he left off in New Orleans, seeing five targets and nine carries last week. That’s not why we’re here, though. Starter Alvin Kamara missed practice both Wednesday and Thursday for the Saints and seems to be truly questionable for Week 10.
Given his familiarity with the offense (and relatively fresh legs), it’s safe to pencil Ingram in for much of Kamara’s workload should Kamara miss the game. The Saints are thin at running back — presumed No. 2 Tony Jones hasn’t played since Week 4. It’s why they traded for Ingram in the first place.
That role could be huge in this matchup as well. The Saints are already highly limited through the air, but the Titans are a top-10 pass defense while ranking 24th against the rush. Fortunately, this game is a 1:00 p.m. ET start, so we’ll know Kamra’s status for sure before lineups lock.
Update: Kamara was ruled out on Friday night. Ingram will likely be among the leaders in Pts/Sal Projection when the models update.
Alexander Mattison ($4,500 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel): Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (53 total)
Starter Dalvin Cook is in the news for possible domestic violence issues this week. While judgment on that is beyond the scope of this article, there are fantasy implications. As of Friday afternoon, the league is yet to levy any punishment on Cook. It’s probably more likely to happen in a week or two (if it all), but stranger things have happened. Mattison traditionally steps into 100% of Cook’s role when Cook is out, so Mattison would immediately become a top play were Cook to miss this week. (For many of the same reasons, Cook is a strong play, but at a greatly reduced price).
Other Running Backs With Week-Winning Upside
Jonathon Taylor ($8,100 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel): Indianapolis Colts (-10.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (47.5 total)
Taylor is in a tremendous spot this week, with the Colts as double-digit favorites against the Jaguars. Taylor is relatively limited in the passing game, but this is the type of game script that favors him. He’s been at least a seven-point favorite a handful of times in his young career and absolutely dominated in those situations:
Taylor, when favored by seven or more points
Taylor has the highest Ceiling Projection on both sites this week. He also leads the Minimalist Tournament Model on DraftKings. Due to all of the potential value on this slate at running back, Taylor could be forgotten by the field. But he shouldn’t be.
Austin Ekeler ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (53.5 total)
Ekeler is the third highest-scoring running back in DraftKings points this year but could be another odd-man out this week. He’s coming off of a disappointing 11.2 DraftKings point performance last week, but prior to that, had scored at least 20 points in five of his last six.
This week sets up much better for Ekeler as well. Minnesota ranks 26th against the run but top-three against the pass. Combine that rushing efficiency with Ekeler’s target share (17.14%, third among running backs), and he’s a solid option regardless of the game script this week.
Christian McCaffrey ($8,400 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Carolina Panthers (+10.5) at Arizona Cardinals (27.5)
We’re so spoiled by CMC’s fantasy greatness that his 14.6-point performance after missing five games due to injury was an utter disappointment. While the Panthers announced ahead of last week’s game that McCaffrey was on a snap count, I’ve heard no such pronouncement this week.
The 4-5 Panthers are, at least in theory, still in the playoff hunt. The singing of Cam Newton also shows that they aren’t ready to give up on this season yet. Their best chance at having any success on offense is through McCaffrey, so he could quickly return to his otherworldly role. Whether that happens, this week or down the line remains to be seen, but it’s better to be first than to be right. McCaffrey also stands out in our Minimalist Tournament Model on DraftKings, trailing only Taylor and Kamara.
