In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models
There are three quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Here’s where they place within our Week 10 Fantasy Rankings (as of Tuesday evening):
- Josh Allen (1st)
- Tom Brady (3rd)
- Taylor Heinicke (17th)
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Wide Receivers on Wednesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Quarterbacks
Josh Allen ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-14.5) at New York Jets (47.5 total)
Just like last week, Allen and the Bills are huge road favorites against the league’s worst-rated (at the time) defense by DVOA. As you’re probably aware, it didn’t work out so well for Allen and the Bills last time. Allen was sacked four times, and the Bills failed to score a touchdown en route to a 9-6 loss against the Jaguars.
Our models are expecting a strong bounce-back game for Buffalo this week. They are supported by Vegas, which has the Bills’ team total over 30 points. I dug around for statistical reasons to explain the Bills’ failure in Week 9. Was it the Jaguars’ defensive front? At least on paper, no. Jacksonville still ranks 32nd in adjusted sack rate even after getting to Allen four times. Does Allen typically fail as a big favorite? Per our Trends tool, not really:
Keep in mind, this trend includes last week’s game. If you remove it from the sample, his average rises to 22.3 points. Meaning this analysis wouldn’t have steered us away from Allen heading into Week 9.
At the end of the day, NFL players are human, and humans sometimes have bad days. It’s entirely possible that was the case with the Bills last week.
This week should be much better for Allen, whom we have projected to lead the slate in scoring on both FanDuel and DraftKings against the 32nd-ranked Jets overall defense. Expect the Bills to be highly motivated to put last week’s embarrassment behind them in this one. We’re also getting a slight discount on Allen, with his price dropping $300 on both sites.
Allen leads our Cash Game Models for both sites, as well as two other DraftKings and three other FanDuel Models. Be sure to keep an eye on Ownership Projections later in the week too. They could be lower following a bad performance, which makes Allen even more appealing in tournaments.
Tom Brady ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5) at Washington (51.5 total)
Brady leads the Tournament Model on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week, and for very good reason. Our Ceiling Projections have him tied with Allen on DraftKings and just slightly behind Allen on FanDuel (Brady’s odds of getting the 300-yard bonus in passing are higher than Allen’s, which boosts his relative projection on DraftKings). He’s slightly cheaper on both sites as well.
The Buccaneers are one of three teams implied for over 30 points this week and are likely to get most of their production through the air. Despite their 6-2 record, they throw the ball at a higher rate than any other NFL team this year. Generally, teams throw more when they’re trailing, so this is notable. (The teams ranked 2-4 in pass-play rate have a combined four wins between them).
These aren’t check-down passes either; Brady leads the slate in Intended Air Yards per game as well. (Our models now feature receiving and throwing Air Yards)! If you aren’t familiar with the stat, air yards are crucial for fantasy production. They’re a measure of how far the ball traveled downfield. Deeper passes = greater scoring opportunity.
Quarterbacks in general average a solid 22.66 DraftKings points when favored by seven or more points over the past two seasons. Solid, but unspectacular. Brady averages 26.23 points. He’s also gone over 30 points in six of the 13 such games as a Buccaneer.
The matchup suggests that this week could be another big game for the Bucs. Washington is a major pass funnel, ranking 10th against the rush but 31st against the pass on the year. Many teams would stubbornly try to run the ball anyway, particularly with a lead. But not Tampa, as their pass rate shows.
Washington also allows the highest Opponent Plus/Minus to quarterbacks of any team on the slate. Five quarterbacks have scored at least 26 DraftKings points against them in eight games this season.
It’s extraordinarily difficult to find reasons not to play Brady this weekend, with the possible exception of inflated ownership.
Taylor Heinicke ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Washington Football Team (+9.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (51.5 total)
If you’re looking for a budget option at quarterback, you could do a lot worse than Heinicke (at least on DraftKings). He’s the only player other than Brady or Allen to lead one of our DraftKings models for Week 10.
Generally, we want to target quarterbacks based on the game environment. It doesn’t matter how great a player is if the game is a low-scoring slog. That leads us to Heinicke this week, who is playing against the Buccaneers (and Tom Brady). This one is sure to feature tons of passing, with Washington chasing points throughout.
While the Bucs are by no means a bad defense against the pass, it’s certainly a relative weakness, given their fourth-best rushing defense. They’ve allowed three opposing passers to go over 26 DraftKings points in eight games this season and held only one quarterback below 17. Typically 17 points aren’t enough to get excited about a quarterback, but at only $5,400, we can live with it.
Nobody is going to be thrilled to roster Heinicke this week, but the extra $2,000 in DraftKings salary could go a long way this week. His 3.6 Pts/Sal leads all quarterbacks on DraftKings this week, where he’s a solid cash game option.
Other Quarterbacks with Week-Winning Upside
Dak Prescott ($6,900 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel): Dallas Cowboys (-9) vs. Atlanta Falcons (54.5 total)
Prescott is the third quarterback (along with Brady and Allen) implied for at least 30 points this week. The situation is actually similar to Allen’s — the Cowboys also were upset by a big underdog last week and are entering a similar situation this week. However, the Cowboys don’t pass the ball at nearly the rate the Bills (or certainly the Bucs) do. That means that Prescott needs a bit more to go right than our top-rated quarterbacks to put up a good game this week.
Still, there’s a chance of that happening. Despite their overall low pass rate (23rd in the league), Prescott has attempted over 50 passes in a game twice this season — scoring at least 30 DraftKings points both times. This scenario is heavily dependent on Atlanta keeping up with Dallas here, but stranger things have happened.
Since Dak having a big game is conditional on the Falcons offense succeeding, make sure to pair him with Atlanta players if rostering him in tournaments. This is obviously a solid strategy for (almost) every quarterback, but it’s especially crucial for Prescott this week.
Justin Herbert ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (52 total)
The Vikings-Chargers game this week is an interesting one. It has the slate’s highest total at 52 and is the only game above 50 expected to be close. However, both teams are more easily attacked on the ground, with Minnesota ranking 26th against the run and the Chargers ranking dead last.
However, for this game to get to its total, some passing will be necessary. It’s likelier to come from Herbert and the Chargers, who throw the ball at the sixth-highest rate on the year. Herbert is slightly thin for cash games — with the Chargers favored and Minnesota struggling against the run, his volume could be way down. He has four games under 20 DraftKings points on the season.
But his ceiling is certainly there since he also has three games over 30 DraftKings points. Herbert is a boom-or-bust option, but that’s what we’re looking for in tournaments. He has the fourth-highest Ceiling Projection on DraftKings this week. Be sure to look for him in our new Minimalist Tournament Model once ownership projections are up. He’s likely to be less popular than Brady and Allen, which could vault him to the top of that model.
Kirk Cousins ($6,100 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel): Minnesota Vikings (+2.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (52 total)
Much of the Herbert analysis applies here too. Vegas is expecting a shootout here, which usually means passing. However, the Vikings will be happy to feed Dalvin Cook plenty of carries against the Chargers’ 32nd-ranked run defense if they get the chance.
Cousins’ performance depends on whether they get that chance. If the Chargers control this game early, Kirk will have the volume necessary for a big game. We’ve seen it a few times this year, with Cousins topping 25 DraftKings points four times (and, similar to Herbert, falling shy of 15 points three times).
Cousins has a similar, though slightly lessened, range of outcomes to Herbert here. At $1,200 less on DraftKings, his odds of being the better point-per-dollar play are reasonably high.
