NFL Week 18 features a 13-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Welcome to the final week of the regular season. This is arguably the toughest week of the year in DFS, with virtually each team dealing with some degree of question mark. There are only five teams on the main slate that are still trying to clinch a playoff spot: The Steelers, Ravens, Colts, Saints and 49ers. Those teams will give this game their full attention, but that’s no guarantee for the rest of the squads in action. Teams that have already solidified a playoff spot could choose to rest some of their regulars, while teams that are out of playoff contention may be focused on the golf course.
The only teams that we know for sure that are resting certain players this week are the Browns, Bengals, Cowboys, and Eagles. The Packers’ starters are expected to start the game, but they may not finish with the No. 1 seed in the NFC already clinched.
After that, it’s all speculation. How much you want to weigh motivation when building your lineups is 100% up to you, but I’ll be approaching most of the other squads as though their starters will play the full 60 minutes. Keep in mind that the teams with clear motivation will likely see inflated ownership this week, while teams with “nothing to play for” will likely carry less ownership than usual.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays at each position using the FantasyLabs Tools.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups, or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Quarterback
Stud
Josh Allen was dreadful as a passer last week, finishing with just 120 passing yards and three interceptions against a poor Falcons’ defense. However, he was able to make up for it with his work on the ground. He racked up 81 rushing yards and two touchdowns, bringing his fantasy total to 23.9 DraftKings points.
That rushing upside is what makes Allen so tantalizing on a weekly basis. On weeks where he hits his rushing and passing ceilings, no one in fantasy possesses more potential. He’s put that on full display recently, racking up 42.22 and 33.96 DraftKings points in two of his past four starts.
Allen draws a spectacular matchup this week vs. the Jets, who have been an abomination defensively this season. They rank dead last in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA, and they’ve struggled against the pass and the run. The Bills racked up 45 points in their first meeting with the Jets this season.
Unsurprisingly, the Bills are listed as massive 16-point favorites in this matchup. That gives them the second-highest implied team total of the week despite a pedestrian 40.5-point total on the game.
Value
Taysom Hill figures to be the highest-owned quarterback this week, at least in cash games. Not only are the Saints still fighting for a playoff spot, but Hill is very fairly priced across the industry.
Hill has also been a solid fantasy quarterback this season. His passing production leaves a lot to be desired, but he’s one of the most active runners at the position. He’s logged at least 11 carries in each of his four starts, and he’s finished with at least 26.3 DraftKings points in two of them.
His matchup vs. the Falcons is also excellent. Even though they did a decent job against Allen last week, the Falcons still rank just 29th in defensive DVOA. They’ve struggled against the run and the pass, so Hill should be able to rack up fantasy points in multiple ways.
Quick Hits
Kyler Murray is another strong option at the position, and he leads all quarterbacks in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Murray’s production has been mediocre since returning to the lineup – he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four straight games – but he’s in an excellent bounce-back spot vs. the Seahawks.
Tyler Huntley’s matchup vs. the Steelers isn’t nearly as appealing as some of the other quarterbacks, but he’s very affordable across the industry. He also brings a strong ceiling to the position, evidenced by his 35.9 DraftKings points vs. the Packers.
The Rams still need a win to secure the NFC West, and Matthew Stafford owns a Bargain Rating of 85% on FanDuel. That’s enough to make him a viable target vs. the 49ers.
Is it crazy to roll with Davis Mills this week? Billy Ward breaks down the Texans’ rookie signal-caller in this week’s Quarterback Breakdown.
Running Back
Stud
Jonathan Taylor remains the king at running back. He had a “mediocre” performance last week vs. the Raiders, posting a Plus/Minus of just +1.41 on DraftKings, but he still racked up more than 100 rushing yards and a touchdown. Overall, Taylor has finished with at least 100 rushing yards and a score in nine of his past 13 games, which is remarkable consistency.
It’s hard to imagine Taylor not posting a huge game vs. the Jaguars. Not only does Jacksonville possess a weak run defense – they rank 21st in rush defense DVOA – but the Colts are monster 15-point favorites. Taylor has been insanely good as a massive favorite, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.92 when laying at least a touchdown (per the Trends tool). Taylor also leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $9,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%.
The only real downside with Taylor is his price tag. There aren’t a ton of great value plays at the moment, which makes fitting a player as expensive as Taylor troublesome. There are also other running backs who grade out as better points-per-dollar plays, even if they lack the same ceiling. That makes justifying Taylor in cash games tougher than usual.
Value
There are plenty of running backs in the $6,000 range on DraftKings that stand out as excellent plays this week. However, Devin Singletary might be the best of the bunch. He’s taken over as a true bell-cow back for the Bills, and he’s racked up at least 22 carries in two of the past three weeks. He’s also played on the vast majority of the snaps over the past four weeks.
That should lead to good things vs. the Jets. If the Bills can establish a comfortable lead – which the point spread suggests they should – they could choose to ride Singletary down the stretch. The Jets have surrendered some massive rushing performances this season, giving Singletary an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.3 on DraftKings.
Quick Hits
D’Onta Foreman grades out as the best RB on DraftKings in terms of Projected Plus/Minus. He’s taken over as their between-the-tackles grinder, and the team should have no qualms about running him rampant with Derrick Henry on the mend. His $5,700 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%, and his matchup vs. the Texans results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.9.
What does Elijah Mitchell have to do to get some respect on DraftKings? He’s been dominant when on the field this season, averaging 87.8 rushing yards in his 10 games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games. That said, his salary never seems to budge, and his current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Antonio Gibson is another running back who grades out nicely in our NFL Models. He missed last week’s game vs. the Eagles, but he’s been extremely busy of late. He’s added some pass-catching duties to his repertoire with J.D. McKissic sidelined, giving him plenty of appeal vs. the lowly Giants.
Don’t forget about James Conner. He’s expected to return to the lineup after missing the past two weeks, while Chase Edmonds has already been ruled out. Conner has thrived in games without Edmonds this season, averaging 22.0 PPR points per game. That number is inflated by a 40.3 DraftKings point performance vs. the 49ers, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each game without Edmonds.
There a simply too many good running backs this week to touch on all of them. That could result in lower ownership for guys like Dalvin Cook and Nick Chubb. Billy Ward highlights both players in this week’s Running Back Breakdown.
Wide Receiver
Stud
Cooper Kupp scoring 20+ DraftKings points has become one of life’s great certainties, right up there with death and taxes. He’s scored at least 20.5 DraftKings points in 10 of his past 11 games, and he finished with 18.6 in the lone exception. His production last week felt mediocre – his seven targets were his lowest of the year – yet he still managed to rack up 95 yards and a touchdown.
Kupp enters the final week of the year chasing history. He needs 12 catches to break the record for receptions in a single season, and he’s 136 yards away from the yardage record. Kupp did benefit from an additional game compared to the current record holders, but he’s still had a historic season.
I don’t necessarily believe in teams force-feeding players for statistical reasons – especially teams like the Rams that need to win – but those marks are well-within his range of outcomes. He’s already had nine games with at least 12 targets this season, and he’s eclipsed 135 receiving yards in three.
Even if you don’t want to give Kupp a bump in volume this week, he still stands out as an elite option. He leads all receivers in projected Plus/Minus by a wide margin on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Value
Unlike at running back, the value receivers are hard to come by this week. Marvin Jones stands out as one of the better options at just $4,300 on DraftKings. Jones has been the Jaguars’ top pass-catcher this season, and he racked up 13 targets two weeks ago. He parlayed those targets into 15.4 DraftKings points, which was good for a Plus/Minus of +5.17.
It’s hard to get too excited about the Jaguars’ offense given the struggles of Trevor Lawrence, but they will likely need to throw the ball a ton this week. That makes Jones a viable target.
Quick Hits
Justin Jefferson is the only receiver who can potentially rival Kupp this week. His ceiling projection is still nearly 12 points lower than Kupp’s on DraftKings, but he’s in the same ballpark in terms of projected Plus/Minus. Jefferson also draws an elite matchup vs. the Bears, with Pro Football Focus giving him the fourth-largest advantage at the position.
Are you feeling lucky? If so, you can consider some of the Packers’ value wide receivers like Equanimious St. Brown and Juwann Winfree. If the Packers’ starters play just a drive or two, that would make both guys strong options at minimum salaries.
Christian Kirk has quietly turned in a solid season for the Cardinals. He’s emerged as their clear top receiver following the injury to DeAndre Hopkins, racking up at least nine targets in three straight weeks. He’s priced way too cheaply on FanDuel, where his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
PFF credits Darnell Mooney with the largest matchup advantage at receiver this week. The Vikings possess arguably the weakest cornerback trio in the league, and slot corner Mackensie Alexander has allowed 0.30 fantasy points per route run.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been on a massive heater recently, logging at least 23.5 DraftKings points in four of his past five games. That includes 38.4 DraftKings points in his last outing. He could have a field day against the Packers if they play their second-stringers.
If you’re not looking to roster Taylor this week, Michael Pittman could be an interesting pivot in guaranteed prize pools. Billy Ward makes the case in this week’s Wide Receiver Breakdown.
Tight End
Stud
The Buccaneers have gone from an abundance of options in the passing game to a scarcity. Chris Godwin is out for the year, Leonard Fournette won’t return until the playoffs, and Antonio Brown is gone for good. Even Mike Evans has dealt with a hamstring injury recently.
That leaves Rob Gronkowski as one of the only remaining options for Tom Brady. The good news is that connection has been extremely productive in the past. Gronk took full advantage of his expanded role last week vs. the Jets, turning 10 targets into seven catches for 115 yards. Ultimately, Gronk finished with at least 19.9 DraftKings points for the fifth time in just 10 games.
Value
It’s basically impossible to avoid Zach Ertz this week on FanDuel, where his $5,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. His price tag is much less appealing on DraftKings, but he still owns the top projected Plus/Minus at the position in our NFL Models.
Like Kirk, Ertz has seen a sizable spike in targets recently. He’s averaged 11 over his past three games, and he’s racked up at least nine in each of them. He hasn’t scored a touchdown over that time frame, but he’s still managed at least 11.1 DraftKings points in all three games.
Quick Hits
If you’re looking to go super cheap at tight end, there are a few different options to consider. Brevin Jordan, John Bates, and Tyler Kroft are all priced between $2,500 and $3,000 on DraftKings, and all three players are projected to pay off their current price tags. Jordan stands out as the best option of the bunch, and he owns a Bargain Rating of 92% on DraftKings. One of these options could be key if you’re looking to play Kupp and/or Taylor.
Mark Andrews continues to put up monster numbers at the position, yet he’s projected for minuscule ownership across the industry. Billy Ward explains why no Lamar Jackson makes Andrews very interesting in this week’s Tight End Breakdown.
Roster Construction
This week really comes down to just how comfortable you feel with some of the value wide receivers. The current FantasyLabs optimal lineup when building by projected points features both Jones and Equanimious St. Brown at receiver, which doesn’t make me feel warm and fuzzy.
I’d rather avoid EQSB if at all possible, which means I won’t be able to pair Kupp with Jefferson. I’m ok with that decision.
Instead, I like getting up to Kirk at wide receiver, giving my lineup a trio of Kupp, Jones, and Kirk. I can also grab three of the value running backs – Singletary, Foreman, and Gibson grade out best on DraftKings – and still get up to Murray at quarterback. That means I need to punt at tight end, but I think that’s perfectly reasonable.
As usual, things are a bit easier on FanDuel. Jefferson actually doesn’t pop in the FanDuel optimal despite a 94% Bargain Rating, but his absence allows for a strong overall squad. You can easily get up to Allen at quarterback and Ertz at tight end without sacrificing anything at the other positions.
As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do ownership projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments.
Good luck this week!
