Sunday features an 11-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays at each position using the FantasyLabs Tools.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups, or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Quarterback
Stud
Justin Herbert entered this season as one of the most promising young quarterbacks in the league, and he has delivered on that promise recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games – including each of his past five – and he’s scored at least 24.04 DraftKings points in six of those outings.
He takes the field in an interesting matchup vs. the Texans. They’ve actually been decent against the pass this season, ranking 10th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, but they’ve still been one of the worst teams in the league. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that the Chargers are massive road favorites. They’re currently favored by 10.5 points, and the Chargers’ implied team total of 28.0 is the top mark on the slate.
Herbert has historically crushed as a massive favorite. He’s made three previous starts as a favorite of more than a touchdown, and he’s averaged a ridiculous 32.37 DraftKings points in those games. That’s good for an average Plus/Minus of +11.07 (per the Trends tool).
Value
Joe Burrow has been priced as high as $7,100 this season, but he’s down to just $5,900 for this week’s matchup vs. the Ravens. That seems like a mistake. The Ravens haven’t been the same defensive unit that they’ve been in the past, ranking just 29th in pass defense DVOA. They’re also incredibly banged up in the secondary, so they figure to struggle with the Bengals’ talented group of pass-catchers.
Burrow has historically been able to provide value at this price tag, especially as a favorite. The Bengals are listed as seven-point home favorites vs. the Ravens, and Burrow has averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.57 when favored with a comparable salary.
Overall, Burrow leads all quarterbacks on DraftKings in terms of Projected Plus/Minus.
Quick Hits
Jalen Hurts has had his ups and downs this season, but he’s coming off 28.64 FanDuel points in his last outing. His rushing ability gives him a high ceiling on a weekly basis. He’s just the sixth-most expensive quarterback on the FanDuel slate, but he owns the third-highest Ceiling Projection in our NFL Models.
If you like targeting stud quarterbacks at reduced ownership, Tom Brady could be your guy. He was shut out for the first time in roughly 15 years last week, but he’s still been arguably the best quarterback in football this season. He will be without two of his top pass-catchers, but the Panthers’ defense has been a sieve recently. They’ve allowed at least 27 points in four straight games.
Punting the QB position isn’t nearly as popular now as it has been in the past, but Josh Johnson has some appeal at the absolute minimum. He made one appearance with the Jets this season and racked up 28.48 DraftKings points, and he has some upside with his legs.
Matthew Stafford checks a lot of boxes vs. the Vikings, and Billy Ward highlights him in this week’s Quarterback Breakdown.
Running Back
Stud
Like last week, this isn’t a slate where it makes much sense to pay up at running back. You don’t have a lot of options even if you’d like to do so: Only one running back is priced above $6,900 on DraftKings, and only two are above $7,800 on FanDuel.
James Robinson is one of those backs on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of zero percent. Still, it’s hard not to like him in a potential smash spot vs. the Jets. Robinson returned to a workhorse role last week following the dismissal of Urban Meyer, and he racked up 18 carries and six targets. He ultimately finished with 16.3 FanDuel points despite the Jaguars trailing for most of that game.
If he sees that same type of volume vs. the Jets, he has the potential for an amazing performance. The Jets have been dismal against the run this season, ranking dead last in rush defense DVOA, and Robinson leads the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.9. Robinson is an absolute no-brainer at just $5,900 on DraftKings, but he still has plenty of appeal at $8,200 on FanDuel.
Value
There has been plenty of news this week, but one of the biggest absences is Austin Ekeler. He’s been ruled out after testing positive for COVID-19, so Justin Jackson is expected to handle most of the Chargers’ snaps at running back.
Jackson has already played a role for the Chargers of late. He racked up 13 carries last week and finished with a season-high 86 rushing yards. Jackson has averaged 5.7 yards per attempt this season, so he should be able to make the most of any additional opportunities. The Chargers being listed as massive favorites also gives him appeal from a game script perspective.
Jackson will probably cede some touches to Joshua Kelley and Larry Rountree, but he still leads the position by a wide margin in terms of projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. He’s way too cheap at $4,300, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Quick Hits
Alexander Mattison is the inverse of Robinson this week. He owns a Bargain Rating of zero percent on DraftKings and 99% on FanDuel, so he stands out as an elite option on that site. He should see a massive workload in relief of Dalvin Cook, who has entered health and safety protocols.
The Buccaneers will also have plenty of touches available after placing Leonard Fournette on IR. The team did sign Le’Veon Bell this week, but most of the work figures to fall to Ronald Jones. Rojo played well in relief of Fournette last week, racking up 63 yards on eight carries while catching both of his two targets. He’s another elite option on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 93%.
David Montgomery doesn’t benefit from absences like some of the other runners on this slate, but he stills stands out as underpriced across the industry. He’s been very involved recently, averaging 16.3 carries and 7.3 targets over the past three weeks. He also owns one of the top matchups at the position, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.3 on DraftKings.
Could Cordarrelle Patterson be a bit overlooked this week? Billy Ward makes this case in this week’s Running Back Breakdown.
Wide Receiver
Stud
Cooper Kupp has become the freest free square in all of DFS. The man simply does not miss. He’s scored at least 29.9 DraftKings points in three straight games, and he’s posted at least 129 receiving yards with at least one score in each of those contests. He leads the league in virtually every receiving metric, and he has the potential to become the first receiver to crack 2,000 yards in a season.
There’s no reason to avoid him this week vs. the Vikings. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.6 is the top mark at the position, and Pro Football Focus gives him the largest matchup advantage of the week. He’s expected to see most of his snaps against slot corner Mackensie Alexander, who ranks dead last out of 117 qualified corners in terms of PFF grade. This could get ugly.
Given all the elite values available at running back, there’s no reason Kupp shouldn’t be in your cash game lineups.
Value
Antonio Brown is another receiver who should garner massive ownership, especially at just $4,900 on DraftKings. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%, and Brown should see a massive spike in value with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin sidelined.
Brown also stands out from a matchup perspective. He owns the third-largest advantage among Sunday’s wide receivers per PFF, and the two players above him are more expensive. He’s also going to be tough to avoid in cash games.
Quick Hits
The Chargers are going to be without Mike Williams and Jalen Guyton in addition to Ekeler, so there will be a few additional targets available. Keenan Allen stands out as the biggest beneficiary, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games. Josh Palmer is also in play at just $3,300 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 89%.
Pairing Kupp with another stud pass-catcher will likely be a default strategy this week. Allen, Tyreek Hill, and Justin Jefferson are the most logical options. Hill is coming off his best game in more than two months, racking up 12 catches for 148 yards and a touchdown in his last outing. Travis Kelce could also be out of the lineup, which would give Hill a nice boost in value.
However, don’t sleep on Jefferson. He currently owns the second-highest ceiling projection on DraftKings, and he will likely check in with significantly lower ownership than Hill. I would expect most of Jefferson’s ownership to come as part of game stacks featuring Kupp and Stafford or Kirk Cousins.
Amon-Ra St. Brown could be a bit overlooked this week. He’s emerged as the Lions’ clear top target recently, logging at least 11 targets in three straight games. He’s scored at least 23.5 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, but he’s projected for just 7.4% ownership on DraftKings. That said, the drop from Jared Goff to Tim Boyle at quarterback is something to consider.
Should you consider buying low on Ja’Marr Chase on FanDuel? Billy Ward describes him as an ideal tournament option in this week’s Wide Receiver Breakdown.
Tight End
Stud
Another factor that should result in high ownership among the stud wide receivers is the relatively weak group of stud tight ends. If Kelce is inactive, Mark Andrews stands out as the highest-priced player at the position. However, the absence of both Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley should have a massive impact on his production. He’s coming off back-to-back massive games, which has caused his price tag to skyrocket. Unfortunately, his projected Plus/Minus is the worst mark at the position.
Rob Gronkowski should be the more popular option for those paying up. He figures to benefit from the absence of Evans and Godwin in the same way as Brown. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in back-to-back games, but he’s logged 20 targets in those contests. That provides plenty of optimism with Gronk moving forward.
Value
C.J. Uzomah hasn’t been a particularly strong source of value recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games on DraftKings. That said, he continues to play the vast majority of snaps for the Bengals at tight end, and he’s racked up 16 targets over the past three weeks.
Uzomah stands out as an excellent value at just $3,000 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%. The Ravens have also been a solid matchup for tight ends this season, ranking 19th in DVOA vs. the position.
Quick Hits
Dallas Goedert is a nice midrange option on this slate. He’s been fantastic in his past two games, racking up at least 23.5 DraftKings points and 105 receiving yards in both contests, and he’s been among the target leaders at tight end following the Zach Ertz trade. He’s an elite option on FanDuel at just $5,900, but he’s in play at $5,100 on DraftKings as well.
Jared Cook is another member of the Chargers who could benefit from their absences. He’s coming off seven targets last week – his most since his first game of the year – and he’s reasonably priced at $3,500 on DraftKings.
Billy Ward breaks down some other potential options at the position in this week’s Tight End Breakdown.
Roster Construction
This week’s lineup construction is pretty straightforward. There are three absolute locks on DraftKings – Kupp, Robinson, and Jackson – and there is a group of other value running backs to choose from for your flex. This is a week where you definitely want to be using three running backs.
I’m going to give the edge to Jones. He ranks second at the position in terms of projected Plus/Minus, and he checks a lot of boxes as a 10-point favorite vs. the Panthers. Guys like Montgomery and Mattison are also viable options, but I’d rather save the salary with Rojo.
What to do at tight end is the big decision on this slate. If you’re willing to go down to Uzomah, you can load up on the rest of your lineup. That means Brown and Hill/Jefferson for your final two receiver spots and a high-end quarterback as well.
If you want to go up to someone like Goedert at tight end, you’re going to have to sacrifice a bit. You can still get to Jefferson pretty easily, but you’ll likely need Palmer as your WR3. The downgrade from Brown to Palmer scares me in cash games, so I prefer the first combination.
On FanDuel, it’s pretty tough to build a lineup that doesn’t feel like the nuts. There’s so much value available at running back, which allows you to load up at every other position. The three-man combo of Mattison, Jackson, and Rojo means you can play Kupp, Jefferson, and Allen at receiver, Goedert at tight end, and Herbert at quarterback. Expect most of those players to be extremely chalky in cash games, but it’s hard to get too far away from that construction.
As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do ownership projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments.
Ryan Hodge and Justin Bailey do a great job of identifying some high upside GPP targets in their Concise Convictions and Small-Field GPP Strategy articles.
Good luck this week!
