Sunday features a nine-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays at each position using the FantasyLabs Tools.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups, or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Quarterback
Stud
This was originally scheduled to be an 11-game slate, but two of the games have been moved due to COVID-19. That shouldn’t have a massive impact on the slate, but the chalk will probably become a bit more condensed.
Kyler Murray stands out as the top option if you’re paying up at quarterback. He’s coming off a pedestrian outing last week, finishing with 22.42 DraftKings points, but he has been one of the most consistent producers at the position all year. He’s scored at least 22.42 DraftKings points in eight of his 10 games.
Murray draws an outstanding matchup this week vs. the Lions. They’ve been one of the worst teams in football this season, and they rank merely 30th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA. The Cardinals’ implied team total of 30.0 points also ranks first on the slate.
Murray has also historically thrived as a large favorite. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.49 when favored by at least a touchdown, and he’s averaged 27.85 DraftKings points in those games (per the Trends tool). He leads all quarterbacks in terms of median projection in our NFL Models, so he checks a lot of boxes.
Value
The Jets defense hasn’t just been bad this season, they’ve been downright awful. They rank dead last in terms of points and yards per game allowed, and they’ve allowed less than 24 points in just two games this season.
The Dolphins will get to feast on this unit in Week 15, making Tua Tagovailoa a very appealing value. He’s priced at just $5,700 on DraftKings, giving him a position-high Bargain Rating of 69%. He also leads all quarterbacks in Opponent Plus/Minus, and he racked up 273 yards and two touchdowns in his first meeting vs. the Jets this season.
Quick Hits
Dak Prescott leads all quarterbacks in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, and he’s been priced down to just $6,500. Prescott has struggled recently, scoring 12.22 DraftKings points or fewer in three of his past four games, but there’s no denying his appeal at his current salary. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.63 with a comparable price tag.
Aaron Rodgers stands out as one of the best values at the position on FanDuel, where his $7,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. His matchup vs. the Ravens isn’t great on paper, but the Ravens are down basically all of their top cornerbacks. He could have a field day picking them apart.
Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t had to throw the ball much recently, but he racked up 41 attempts last week vs. the Bengals. He should have success when he needs to go to the air vs. the Falcons, who rank 29th in pass defense DVOA. It’s possible the 49ers can dominate this game with their rushing attack, making Garoppolo a high-risk, high-reward option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Josh Allen is always in play, and Billy Ward highlights the Bills’ signal-caller in this week’s Quarterback Breakdown.
Running Back
Stud
This is a very thin week for stud running backs. Only three players are priced above $6,900 on DraftKings, and none of them are priced above $7,800.
Najee Harris is the most expensive option this week, and he stands out as one of the stronger pay-ups at the position. He hasn’t been all that effective in his rookie season, averaging just 3.7 yards per attempt, but he’s made up for it with gobs of volume. He’s racked up 237 carries so far this season, and no one else has more than 18. He’s also commanded nearly all of the red zone work and scored all of the running back touchdowns.
What really sets Harris apart though is his work as a pass-catcher. He’s racked up 75 targets this season, which he’s converted into 60 catches for 397 yards and three scores. That work in the passing game gives him an excellent weekly floor, and he’s scored at least 15.7 DraftKings points in 11 of his past 12 games.
Value
James Robinson is expected to be the heavy chalk this week on DraftKings. He’s projected for more than 44% ownership, which is one of the highest projections of the year.
It’s tough to eat such heavy chalk in the NFL – an extremely volatile sport – but there are plenty of reasons to like Robinson in Week 15. For starters, the entire Jaguars’ organization has to feel like a weight has been lifted off their shoulders with the firing of Urban Meyer. His tenure with the team was nothing short of a disaster, and he seemed to be particularly rough on Robinson. He should go back to his workhorse role with Meyer out of the picture, especially with Carlos Hyde ruled out this week.
The Texans have also been a great matchup for running backs this season. They’re actually tough against the pass – they rank eighth in pass defense DVOA – but they’ve been crushed on the ground. The Texans are also one of the few teams in football that the Jaguars are favored against, so Robinson should have a better game script than usual. I’m still not sure if I’m willing to eat the chalk with him in tournaments, but he’s an excellent cash play.
Quick Hits
Jeff Wilson Jr. has now started two games for the 49ers in place of Elijah Mitchell, and he’s finished with 5.6 and 6.8 DraftKings points. That’s not exactly the kind of production you’re looking for, and he’s disappointed a lot of fantasy owners in those spots. That said, he’s logged 32 total carries in those outings, so he has had plenty of opportunities. He could be under-owned in a cake matchup vs. the Falcons, so this is a prime bounce-back spot.
The Broncos continue to split the carries between Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon, but Williams is the one who gets most of the attention. Gordon is cheaper and technically the starter, but he’s projected for just 2.3% ownership on DraftKings. That’s a mistake, making him the clear preferred option of the duo.
Ezekiel Elliott stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $6,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he’s in a great spot vs. the Giants. The Cowboys are listed as 11.5-point favorites, and Tony Pollard is currently questionable.
The Jets defense has been awful in general, but they’ve been especially bad on the ground. That makes Myles Gaskin an interesting option. He leads all running backs with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.7 on DraftKings, and his $5,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%.
Devonta Freeman also warrants some consideration on this slate, and Billy Ward makes the case in this week’s Running Back Breakdown.
Wide Receiver
Stud
Cooper Kupp has been the top receiver in football this season, and he was set to headline the position on the Week 15 main slate. However, the Rams were moved to Tuesday night, so it opens up the spot for a new top dog.
Davante Adams should be able to fill it. He’s been phenomenal recently, scoring at least 33.5 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, and he finished with 21.4 DraftKings points in the other. He continues to gobble up targets for the Packers, and he remains one of the best receivers in football around the goal line.
The Ravens have very little chance of containing him given their cornerback situation. Pro Football Focus credits Adams with the largest matchup advantage of the week, especially against cornerback Chris Westry. Adams is expected to see more snaps against Westry than any other corner, and he’s allowed an average of 0.44 fantasy points per route run this season. This could get ugly.
Value
There is no shortage of value available at receiver this week. DeVante Parker is expected to be the highest-owned player at the position, but I’d rather use Gabriel Davis. He’s come alive for the Bills recently, and he played on 65 of a possible 78 snaps last week. He also saw eight targets, which he converted into five catches for 43 yards and a touchdown.
Any receiver with that much target potential makes a ton of sense at $3,700 on DraftKings, but Davis also benefits from playing for one of the most explosive offenses in the league. The Bills throw the ball more than 61% of the time, and Allen is capable of making the most of his throws. As long as Davis continues to see heavy snaps, he warrants consideration at this price tag.
Quick Hits
Speaking of Parker, he’s clearly deserving of some love at $4,300. The Dolphins have already ruled out Jaylen Waddle vs. the Jets, so Parker should serve as Tagovailoa’s top target. He can do some damage in that role given the matchup.
Diontae Johnson continues to dominate the targets in Pittsburgh. He’s racked up at least 10 in all but two games this season, and he’s seen at least 13 in six of them. He’s coming off a slightly disappointing 15.3 DraftKings points last week vs. the Vikings, but he scored at least 18.5 in each of his previous three games. Outside of Adams, he’s about as safe as it gets at the position.
As usual, the top wide receivers stand out as significantly better values on FanDuel than DraftKings. Adams and Johnson both own Bargain Ratings of 99% — making them priority spend-ups – but don’t forget about Deebo Samuel. He owns a Bargain Rating of 98%, and the hybrid WR/RB should see plenty of work in a juicy matchup vs. the Falcons.
The Cardinals are expected to be without DeAndre Hopkins for the rest of the regular season, so Christian Kirk should step up as Murray’s top pass-catcher. He has some big-play ability, so a boost in targets makes him very appealing from a fantasy perspective.
The Bengals and Cowboys wide receiver corps could be a bit overlooked this week, and Billy Ward highlights Ja’Marr Chase in this week’s Wide Receiver Breakdown.
Tight End
Stud
One of the consequences of all the value at receiver and the lack of high-end running backs is that players could pay up more frequently at tight end this week. George Kittle stands out as the clear top stud at the position following back-to-back games of at least 37.1 DraftKings points. He’s checked in with less than 8% ownership in each of the past four weeks, but we currently have him projected for 23.1% ownership in Week 15.
It’s easy to see why Kittle is on the radar. He owns a great matchup vs. the Falcons, who have been subpar against opposing tight ends this season, and he’s racked up 27 targets over his past two games. With Samuel operating more like a running back these days, it’s allowed Kittle to emerge as the team’s clear No. 1 option in the passing game.
It’s much easier to get to Kittle on FanDuel, where his $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Value
Tight end is hurting for value this week. Among the top nine options in our Cash Game Model, only one is priced below $4,500 on DraftKings.
C.J. Uzomah is that option, so he’s the clear target if you’re paying down at the position. He’s played on the vast majority of the Bengals’ snaps recently, and he’s racked up six targets in back-to-back games. Overall, he leads the position in projected Plus/Minus, so he’s a fine option if you need the savings.
Quick Hits
Like Parker, Mike Gesicki should benefit from the absence of Waddle. Gesicki also should thrive against the Jets, who rank dead last in DVOA vs. opposing tight ends. He’s a nice middle-ground option between Uzomah and Kittle.
Dawson Knox has been a touchdown-scoring machine this season, racking up at least one score in six of his past 10 games. He’s also emerged as a featured weapon in the Bills’ passing attack, racking up nine targets last week vs. the Buccaneers.
Zach Ertz is currently questionable, but he’s worth consideration on FanDuel if he’s able to suit up. Ertz owns a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he could see a few additional targets with Hopkins out of the lineup.
Is Mark Andrews a viable option if Lamar Jackson sits? Billy Ward calls Andrews his favorite tournament option at the position in this week’s Tight End Breakdown.
Roster Construction
The cash game lineup comes together like a glove on DraftKings this week. The biggest question you have to ask yourself is what to do at tight end. Personally, my favorite build utilizes Uzomah given that he leads the position in projected Plus/Minus.
If you lock in Uzomah at tight end alongside Davis and Parker at wide receiver, you can spend up for the rest of your lineup. That means Najee Harris and James Robinson at running back and Diontae Johnson and Davante Adams to fill out your WR corps and flex. I normally lean on three running backs in cash games, but I think four receivers on this slate is totally viable.
If you want to go with Kittle at tight end, you’re obviously going to have to make some cuts. You can go down from Harris to Wilson at RB and Johnson to Freeman at flex, but I personally prefer the other method. To each their own!
However, Kittle is a 100% cash lock for me on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating and the increased salary cap. You can easily utilize Kittle, Adams, and Johnson and still have plenty of room for another stud receiver or running back. Robinson also remains an elite option on FanDuel, while Freeman and Cordarrelle Patterson also get bumps.
As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do ownership projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments.
Ryan Hodge, Justin Bailey, and Mike Randle do a great job of identifying some high upside GPP targets in their Concise Convictions, Small-Field GPP Strategy, and Top Stacks articles.
Good luck this week!
