We’re heading into the final month of the NFL season, and Sunday should be action-packed with high-powered offenses squaring off in ideal situations.
Check out a few games to target in Week 13, and a few you might want to proceed with caution.
Also, don’t forget to check out our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models.
Games to Target
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals
The high-powered Los Angeles Chargers offense heads to Cincinnati in a Week 13 matchup with a 50.5-point total, tied for the most on the slate, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Atlanta Falcons matchup.
The Chargers, led by Justin Herbert are among the most pass-friendly offenses in the league, using a 66%/34% pass-to-run play-calling ratio and average the third-most plays per game, averaging 70 plays. In addition to their impressive play-calling numbers, the Chargers are lightning-fast (pun intended), calling a play every 24.9 seconds (per RotoViz), which is the second-fastest, only behind the Jacksonville Jaguars. This season, Cincinnati ranks 16th in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) and 19th in pass DVOA, which may signal additional opportunities for the Chargers receiving corps in Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Jared Cook and Austin Ekeler, who combine for more than 75% of the targets from Herbert.
While not as pass dominant as their opponent, the Bengals deploy a slightly skewed 59%/41% pass-to-run play calling ratio with quarterback Joe Burrow under center, averaging 62 plays per game and calling a play at a 28.9 seconds per snap pace the second-slowest in the league, only behind the Green Bay Packers. The Chargers rank 23rd in DVOA and look to have a weak spot in defending the run, ranking last in rush DVOA, which should signal additional opportunities for running back Joe Mixon, who is the leader in the Bengals backfield, responsible for 69% of the work in the backfield, averaging 18 rush attempts per game and also looks to be a threat in the passing game, averaging at least three targets per game. As 3-point favorites, look for the Bengals to increase Mixon’s production, especially in a clock-killing situation.
Proceed with Caution
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins
Opening with a game total of 41.5-points, this interconference matchup between the New York Giants and Miami Dolphins looks ugly. Despite the up-tempo nature of the Dolphins, who rank seventh in the league with a 25.4 second per snap rate, both offenses rank toward the bottom of the league, according to PFF, with the Giants ranking 28th and the Dolphins 25th. Interestingly the defense looks to be a solid part of the matchup, with the Giants ranking 11th in DVOA and the Dolphins 15th.
One interesting wrinkle to the matchup seems to be the Giants inability to defend the rush, ranking 31st in rush DVOA, only better than the Los Angeles Chargers, which could set up an ideal matchup for running back Myles Gaskin, who in a 33-10 win over a tough Carolina Panthers defense, rank for 49 yards on 16 attempts, finding the endzone twice. The Dolphins, who are 3.5-point home favorites, may opt to slow the pace and increase Gaskin’s workload in a clock-killing situation if ahead late in the game.
