NFL Week 9 features an 11-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays at each position using the FantasyLabs Tools.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups, or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Quarterback
Stud
Josh Allen has blossomed into the best fantasy quarterback in football. He leads all players with an average of 27.0 fantasy points per game this season, and he’s been even better recently. He’s scored at least 29.46 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, and he’s scored at least 39.5 DraftKings points in two of them. That gives him the highest ceiling in the league.
Allen will take the field in an elite spot vs. the Jaguars in Week 9. The Bills’ implied team total of 31.5 points ranks first on the slate, and the Jaguars rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA. The Bills are currently listed as 14.5-point favorites, and Allen has historically crushed as a road favorite. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.44 on DraftKings in ten previous games in that split (per the Trends tool).
It’s tough to pay up at quarterback in cash games, but Allen is the clear top choice if you’re going to go that route.
Value
Jordan Love will make his first career start vs. the Chiefs, and he’s an interesting option at just $4,400 on DraftKings. He possesses a nice skill set for fantasy purposes, particularly his ability to rack up rushing stats. He ran a 4.74 40-yard dash at the 2020 NFL combine, which puts him in the 75th percentile at the quarterback position per Player Profiler. Love wasn’t overly active as a rusher in college, but he can pick up yards with his legs when needed.
He couldn’t ask for a much better team to debut against than the Chiefs. They’ve been one of the worst defenses in football this season, giving Love an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.9 on DraftKings. That’s the top mark in our NFL Models.
Using Love at quarterback allows you to spend up on the rest of your lineup, which is always appealing in cash games.
Quick Hits
Lamar Jackson has a tough matchup this week vs. the Vikings, but he is about as matchup-proof as it gets at quarterback. He leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel, so he’s obviously a viable target.
If you’re looking for someone priced below the top options but not quite as cheap as Love, Derek Carr makes a lot of sense. He’s put together one of the best seasons of his career, averaging 8.6 adjusted yards per attempt with 12 touchdown passes. He’s averaged right around 20 DraftKings points per game, so he’s underpriced at $5,900 vs. the Giants.
Tyrod Taylor is another potential value option. He scored 23.64 DraftKings points in his only full start this season, and he was well on his way towards return value before getting injured vs. the Browns. The Dolphins rank just 26th in pass defense DVOA, so this is a great spot for him to come back with a bang.
Billy Ward breaks down some of the other top passers in this week’s Quarterback Breakdown.
Running Back
Stud
Ezekiel Elliott is coming off a down performance last week, but that was to be expected. The team was playing without quarterback Dak Prescott, so the Vikings were geared up to stop the run. Prescott will return to the lineup this week vs. the Broncos, which gives Elliott a big boost in value. He’s historically averaged 5.3 additional touches and 5.08 additional DraftKings points in games with Prescott in the lineup.
The game script should also be favorable to Zeke this week. The Cowboys are currently favored by 10 points vs. the Broncos, and Zeke has historically been one of the best fantasy runners in the league as a big favorite. He’s played in ten career games as a favorite of at least a touchdown, and he’s averaged 23.19 DraftKings points in those contests. That’s good for an average Plus/Minus of +2.80.
Finally, Zeke also stands out as one of the better pure values on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Running back is a tough position to find value at this week, but Myles Gaskin is an exception. He owns the top projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel, and he ranks fifth in that department on DraftKings.
He draws one of the best possible matchups for a running back vs. the Texans. They rank just 31st in rush defense DVOA this season, so Gaskin could be more productive than usual on the ground.
Gaskin also remains a pass-catching threat out of the backfield. He’s seen at least four targets in all but one game this season, and he’s seen as many as ten. That makes him game script proof.
He’s one of the best values at the position on FanDuel, where his $6,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Quick Hits
Christian McCaffrey is currently questionable for the Panthers, and fantasy players will have to make a big decision on him if he’s active. His salary is way down on DraftKings – his $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99% — and McCaffrey has the potential to break a slate. He’s scored at least 24.7 DraftKings points in each of his two full games this season, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +8.16 with a comparable price tag. There’s a chance he’s limited in his first game back, but he’s too good to fade at such a cheap salary.
Austin Ekeler is another elite target at the position on DraftKings. His 10 Pro Trends are tied for the most at running back, and his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. He also owns an excellent matchup vs. the Eagles, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.4.
Zack Moss could be another source of savings at the position. He’s cheap, he’s a massive favorite, and he’s capable of returning value in multiple ways. He struggled as a runner last week, finishing with just 19 yards and zero touchdowns, but he made up for it with six catches. Overall, he’s scored at least 11.8 DraftKings points in five of his past six games.
Saquon Barkley will miss another week for the Giants, and Devontae Booker has thrived in his absence. He’s scored at least 13.6 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, and he remains affordable at just $6,300.
Billy Ward highlights some of the other running backs worth considering in this week’s Running Back Breakdown, including Dalvin Cook.
Wide Receiver
Stud
It’s not often that a receiver has an 18-target game and his price goes down, but that’s the case with Tyreek Hill this week. He racked up 12 catches for 94 yards and a touchdown last week vs. the Giants, resulting in 27.4 DraftKings points, yet his salary actually decreased to $7,900 vs. the Packers. That’s simply too cheap for Hill, who has slate-breaking potential every time he takes the field.
The massive target game isn’t exactly an outlier either. Hill has racked up at least 12 targets in four of his past five games, and he had nine targets in the other. Overall, his average of 11.3 targets per game ties him with Cooper Kupp for the top mark in the league. That gives Hill a safe floor and a high ceiling on a weekly basis.
Hill should be able to do some serious damage this week vs. a weak Packers’ secondary. They’re still playing without Jaire Alexander, and Pro Football Focus gives him one of the largest matchup advantages of the week.
Value
There are plenty of strong value options worth considering at receiver, but Hunter Renfrow stands out as one of the best. He’s priced at just $4,800 on DraftKings, and Renfrow has scored at least 10.7 DraftKings points in all but one game this season. He’s heavily involved in the passing game, receiving at least eight targets in three of the past four weeks, and he’s also one of Carr’s preferred options near the goal line. He has seven red zone targets this year, which trails only Darren Waller among the Raiders’ pass-catchers.
Marquise Brown also stands out as an awesome option at just $6,000 on DraftKings. He owns a Bargain Rating of 93%, and he has blossomed into the Ravens’ clear top option in the passing game this season. He leads the team in targets, air yards, first read percentage, end zone targets, and receiving touchdowns, so he checks every box you’re looking for in a fantasy receiver. He’s coming off 14 targets in the Ravens last game, and he’s scored at least 19.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four outings. The Vikings do have a tough pass defense, but Brown still owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.1.
Quick Hits
The $5,100-$6,000 price range is chock-full of options this week on DraftKings. In addition to Brown, guys like Amari Cooper, Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins, Kadarius Toney, and Jarvis Landry are all popping as strong plays in terms of projected Plus/Minus. Each of those guys is expected to carry significant ownership this week, but building your cash lineups with three players in this price range could be the preferred strategy.
It’s a bit easier to fit a high-priced option on FanDuel, and Stefon Diggs stands out as one of the strongest. He hasn’t been quite as dominant as he was last year for the Bills, but he’s scored a touchdown in back-to-back weeks. The Jaguars have also been dreadful against No. 1 wide receivers, ranking 31st in DVOA vs. the position.
Davante Adams should garner virtually no ownership with Rodgers out of the lineup, but he still possesses week-winning upside. Billy Ward makes the case in this week’s Wide Receiver Breakdown.
Renfrow is expected to be chalky this week, so Bryan Edwards is an interesting pivot for GPPs. He could be the player who ends up seeing the biggest boost with Henry Ruggs gone, and he’s slightly cheaper than Renfrow as well.
Finally, Brandin Cooks could be an excellent buy-low option. Taylor being back under-center should give him a huge boost, and Cooks finished with five catches for 132 yards in his only full game with Taylor this season.
Tight End
Stud
Tight end is an extremely interesting position this week. There are strong options to consider at virtually every pricing level.
At the top, Waller will be back in the lineup after missing last week’s game, and he’s another player on the Raiders who could see a few additional targets this week. Even if he doesn’t Waller has still racked up at least seven targets in six of his seven games, and his average of 8.8 targets per game trails only Travis Kelce at the position.
Waller’s salary has also come down quite a bit since the start of the season. He was priced at $7,500 in Week 1, and he’s been at $7,100 or more in five of six games. That makes his $6,200 price tag feel like a bargain, albeit in a tough matchup vs. the Giants.
Value
The Dolphins placed DeVante Parker on Injured Reserve this week, so Mike Gesicki should be busy vs. the Texans. He’s averaged eight targets in his three games without Parker this season, and he’s responded with an average of 6.3 catches and 81 receiving yards per game. Overall, he’s increased his fantasy production by nearly four DraftKings points in those contests. That makes him an excellent option at $4,900.
If you’re looking to go even cheaper, Tyler Conklin stands out as an awesome option at just $3,000. He owns a Bargain Rating of 98% on DraftKings, and the Ravens have been an excellent matchup for opposing tight ends this season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.2, which is one of the top marks at the position.
Quick Hits
Albert Okwuegbunam even cheaper than Conklin at $2,600 on DraftKings, and he owns the top projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings. Noah Fant has been ruled out due to health and safety protocols, and Okwuegbunam racked up a 25% target share and four endzone targets in his only game without Fant last season. He’s also a freak athlete at the position, ranking in the 99th percentile for 40-yard dash time and Speed Score per Player Profiler.
Kyle Pitts struggled last week vs. the Panthers, but he scored at least 26.3 DraftKings points in each of his previous two games. Pitts is currently projected for less than five percent ownership on DraftKings, so he’s a very interesting buy-low target. Calvin Ridley also remains away from the team, so Pitts could be busier than usual.
This is also a week where you can grab Kelce at low ownership. He has the highest ceiling at the position, so getting him as a contrarian target is always appealing for tournaments.
The Cowboys placed Blake Jarwin on the IR this week, so Dalton Schultz should grab all of the tight end work vs. the Broncos. He’s priced at a slight discount at $6,100 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 73%.
Lineup Construction
For the first time in a while, this feels like a week where it’s hard to spend the full salary cap on DraftKings. If you lock in Okwuegbunam at TE and the Chiefs Defense – who cost a total of $4,900 – that leaves you with an average of nearly $6,500 for your remaining roster spots. No one at quarterback, running back, or receiver is priced above $8,200, so you have the freedom to do basically whatever you want with the rest of your lineup.
I think the strongest value options are at receiver this week, so I’m comfortable spending up at QB and RB. If you go with Allen, Zeke, and Ekeler, it leaves you with an average of $5,500 for your three wide receivers and flex. That’s the sweet spot in wide receiver pricing this week, so that seems like the preferred lineup construction. You can use four of the receivers in that price range to round out your lineup, or you could use one of Moss or Gaskin in the flex.
The only potential curveball is if you want to use McCaffrey in addition to Zeke and Ekeler. Our models are not in favor of that strategy at the moment, but that price tag is extremely tempting. If you want to go that route, you can go down from Allen to someone like Jackson or Jalen Hurts at QB. That would allow you to go with all three stud runners and still have room for Renfrow and two of the pass catchers in that $5k range.
As usual, things come together a bit easier on FanDuel. The Chiefs Defense remains the most logical choice against Love, and Elliott and Gaskin stand out as the top two running back options. Renfrow slots in as a value receiver, and that allows you to spend up basically everywhere else. For what it’s worth, our Models prefer Kelce over the value tight ends on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 81%. His raw point projection gives him a massive edge over the rest of the position, and you don’t need the savings the same way you do on DraftKings.
As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do ownership projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments. Our Minimal Tournament Model is especially useful for identifying high-leverage one-off plays.
Ryan Hodge, Justin Bailey, and Mike Randle do a great job of identifying some high upside GPP targets in their Concise Convictions, Small-Field GPP Strategy, and Top Stacks articles.
Good luck this week!
