We’re in the final stretch of the regular season, and the Week 17 slate features 14 games full of NFL action. With teams vying for a final chance at the postseason, combined with matchups with shootout potential, the slate looks to bring in the New Year on a high note.
Check out a few games to target this week, and a few you might want to proceed with caution.
Also, don’t forget to check out our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models.
Games to Target
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
Opening at a 51.5-point total, the Week 17 matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys is projected as the highest-total matchup on the slate. Featuring two of the more dynamic offenses in the league, expect a high-scoring affair with shootout potential.
Arizona has faltered as of late, dropping their last three matchups, posting a 3-5 record after winning the first seven games of the year. Led by quarterback Kyler Murray, the Cardinals, who rank as the 15th best offense (according to PFF), take a more balanced approach to their play calling, using a 56%/44% pass-to-run play calling ratio, averaging a play every 25.6 seconds. With Murray under center, the Cardinals have the highest no-huddle rate in the league, using the scheme 32% of the time and calling the sixth most plays (per RotoViz).
The loss of DeAndre Hopkins seems to have impacted the team immensely, with tight end Zach Ertz and wide receiver Christian Kirk, seeing the bulk of production in the receiving corps, responsible for more than 53% of the looks from Murray since Week 15. Facing a Cowboys defense ranked first in DVOA (per Football Outsiders) might not be an easy task for a Cardinals squad looking to regain its footing. However, a weak spot in the Dallas defense looks to be in the rushing game, where there are ranked 19th in rush DVOA, signaling an added opportunity for the split backfield of Chase Edmonds and James Conner.
Ranked as the top offense in the league, the high-powered Dallas Cowboys use their up-tempo offense and plethora of skill position players to keep the foot on the pedal. Dallas, the fifth-fastest paced team in the league, calling a play every 24.9 seconds, relies on the arm of quarterback Dak Prescott, implementing a 60%/40% pass-to-run play-calling ratio.
Averaging more than 280 passing yards per game, Prescott benefits from a receiving corps of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz. Despite facing an Arizona defense ranked fifth in DVOA, expect the Cowboys to keep the pace up and should have no problem putting up points at will. As 5.5-point favorites, look for the Cowboys to involve the dual-threat option of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard as a clock-killing strategy if ahead late in the game.
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals
Week 17 gives us a matchup featuring two top-10 offenses in the Kansas City Chiefs and the Cincinnati Bengals.
Kansas City is currently on a nine-game win streak, in part due to a high-powered offense that implements a 63%/37% pass-to-run play calling ratio, one of the more pass-heavy offenses in the league. Running an average of 69 plays per game, the third-highest in the league, the Chiefs depend heavily on a receiving corps features Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. With Kelce out of the Week 16 36-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, Mahomes opted to involve secondary members of the receiving corps in Byron Pringle and Mecole Hardman, who recorded 12 targets collectively.
A weak spot in the Cincinnati defense looks to be their ability to stop the passing game, ranking 22nd in pass DVOA, which could signal more opportunity for Hill and the rest of the Chiefs receiving corps to rack up points. Keep an eye on Derrick Gore, who has established himself as the pass-catching running back, seeing three targets in Week 16 win and could provide a unique wrinkle to the receiving corps.
Led by quarterback Joe Burrow, the Cincinnati Bengals grade out as the fourth-best offense in the league, preferring a slightly skewed 58%/42% pass-to-run play calling ratio. With Burrow under center, the Bengals are the third-slowest team in the league, averaging a play every 28 seconds. They will likely increase their pace to match the high-powered Chiefs offense, increasing their passing cadence with Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd, especially as 7.5-point underdogs. While pace overall might be a concern, this matchup has shootout potential given the surplus of weapons at both Mahomes and Burrow’s disposal.
Proceed with Caution
New York Giants at Chicago Bears
Currently, at a 37.5-point total, the lowest on the slate, the Week 17 matchup between the New York Giants and Chicago Bears looks to be a game to write off, especially on such a large slate. Both the Giants’ and Bears’ defenses rank toward the bottom of the league in DVOA (20th and 23rd, respectively), and their offenses also grade out among the worst (30th and 23rd), respectively.
Both offenses also have had a tough time at quarterback, with the Giants losing Daniel Jones and opting for Mike Glennon and Jake Fromme and the Bears moving to Nick Foles because of an ankle injury to rookie quarterback Justin Fields. One item to keep an eye on this matchup is the Giants’ pace, current running at the sixth-fastest in the league at 25.2 seconds per snap and a 30% no-huddle rate. As 6-point underdogs, New York may up to keep the pace up in hopes of keeping the matchup competitive.
