Week 15 kicks off the start of unique scheduling, with an 11-game main slate, due to the addition of two Saturday night games. Early in the week, it looks like a few high-powered offenses are in ideal spots, creating almost perfect game environments.
Check out a few games to target this week, and a few you might want to proceed with caution.
Also, don’t forget to check out our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models.
Games to Target
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
Currently, a 47.5-point total, tied for the highest on the slate, the NFC West matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams highlights two of the more pass-heavy offenses, combined in an up-tempo matchup.
After a 33-13 win over the Houston Texans, Seattle heads to LA, looking to extend their win streak to three games. Led by quarterback Russell Wilson, Seattle uses a pass-first 60%/40% pass-to-run play calling ratio, calling a play every 25 seconds, the fourth-fastest in the league. Despite being ranked 21st in offense (according to PFF), the Seahawks are dependent on a concentrated receiving corps of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, who handle more than 50% of the target share. The Rams look to be a tough defense, ranked seventh in DVOA (per Football Outsiders), but as with Wilson and the Seahawks 7-point underdogs, look for the passing frequency to likely increase.
Coming off a short week, with a 30-23 Monday night win over the Arizona Cardinals, Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams look to solidify their standing as one of the top teams in the NFC. Ranked as the fifth-best offense, the Rams are among the more pass-heavy teams in the league, seeing a 63%/37% pass-to-run play calling ratio, also calling a play every 25.5 seconds, which is the 12th fastest in the league. Look for Cooper Kupp (as usual) to benefit in a prime matchup against a Seahawks defense ranked 28th pass DVOA.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
After a 27-20 win over their division rival Washington Football Team in Week 14, the high-powered Dallas Cowboys offense looks to remain in control of the division, facing the New York Giants in a matchup with a 44.5-point total.
Ranked as the top offense in the league, the Cowboys use a 60%/40% pass-to-run play-calling ratio, given their big-play weapons in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, who combine for more than 40% of the target share from quarterback Dak Prescott. Dallas also benefits from their up-tempo pace, averaging a play every 24.7 seconds, the second-fastest in the league. Facing an 18th ranked Giants’ defense looks ideal for consistent scoring, especially with a loaded receiving corps featuring Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz.
Despite currently being ranked as the 29th worst offense, the New York Giants could keep pace with the breakneck pace of the Cowboys, averaging a play every 25.5 seconds, which is the 11th fastest in the league and leads the league in no-huddle rate, with 32% of plays using the formation. Early reports have surfaced surrounding Daniel Jones‘s playing status and have indicated he may not play due to an ongoing neck injury, signaling another likely start from Mike Glennon.
Like the Cowboys, the Giants are among one of the pass-heavy teams in the league, with a 63%/37% pass-to-run play calling ratio. Facing the third-ranked Cowboys’ defense may challenge the Giants’ offense. However, the likely up-tempo environment of this NFC matchup may create increased fantasy opportunities.
Proceed with Caution
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
With a 39.5-point total, the AFC South matchup between the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars certainly looks less than ideal. Both offenses rank toward the bottom (Houston is last, and Jacksonville is 29th), featuring two rookie quarterbacks in Davis Mills and Trevor Lawrence.
Despite both Houston and Jacksonville ranking among the top in pace (Jacksonville being the fastest in the league with a 24 second per snap average and Houston as the sixth fastest with a 25.2 second per snap pace), it doesn’t seem like both offenses have enough production to create an ideal environment for scoring. Although under center in two pass-heavy offenses, Mills and Lawrence are among the worst in completion rate, completing a pass at 65.8% and 58.2%, respectively.
In addition, Houston ranks 13th in defensive DVOA, even with a 2-11 record, which may limit scoring further.
