We’re in the final full month of the NFL season, and Sunday should be action-packed with high-powered offenses squaring off in ideal situations.
Check out a few games to target in Week 14, and a few you might want to proceed with caution.
Also, don’t forget to check out our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models.
Games to Target
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team
Week 14 brings up a classic NFC East rivalry, with the Dallas Cowboys heading to the nation’s capital to square off against the Washington Football Team. The high-powered Dallas Cowboys’ offense, led by Dak Prescott, ranks as the top offense in the league, relying on a pass-heavy 61%/39% pass-to-run play calling ratio and calling a play every 24.8 seconds on average, which is the third-fastest in the league. With a concentrated receiving corps featuring Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup, Dallas should have no issue putting up points, facing a Washington defense ranked 30th in pass DVOA.
As a 1.5-point underdog, Washington will likely increase their pace to keep up with the hyper-fast Dallas offense. This season, Washington ranks 22nd in pace, averaging a play every 27.2 seconds, as part of their more balanced 55%/45% pass-to-run play calling ratio. Despite facing a Cowboys defense ranked fourth in DVOA, look at Washington to heavily involve Terry McLaurin, who handles a team-leading 24% of the looks from quarterback Taylor Heinicke. Lead running back Antonio Gibson looks to also be in an ideal spot, given the clear difficulty for the Cowboys to stop the run game, ranking 19th in rush DVOA.
With a game total of 48 points, this matchup looks to be a back-and-forth affair, especially with both teams ranking in the top five in plays called per game, signaling the game may come down to the time of possession especially with a closer spread.
Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opening at a 52.5-point total, the Week 14 matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers features two of the top offenses in the league in what could be a matchup of Super Bowl LVI.
Led by the versatile quarterback Josh Allen, the Bills skew toward a more pass-heavy approach, calling a 61%/39% pass-to-run play calling ratio and rank fifth in plays called per game, averaging 68 plays per game. Allen, coming off a 14-10 loss to the New England Patriots Monday Night, not only is an effective passer, averaging more than 268 passing yards per game with a 65% completion rate, with help from a receiving corps featuring Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis. They can also move the offense in the run game, responsible for 24% of the Bills’ carries. Buffalo ranks 18th in offense (per PFF), and despite a matchup against a tough Buccaneers defense, ranked eighth (per Football Outsiders), expect a pace-up spot for the Bills, who may likely increase their pass cadence, as a 4-point road underdog, as well as increased snap rate, currently averaging a play every 26.4 seconds.
Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers look primed for the postseason, coming off a 30-17 win over division rival Atlanta Falcons. The Buccaneers have the highest pass frequency in the league, calling a 67%/33% pass-to-run play calling ratio. Like the Bills, Tampa also calls the fifth-most plays in the league, averaging 68 plays per game, playing at the 12th fastest pace in the league, averaging a snap every 25 seconds (per RotoViz). With a plethora of weapons at Brady’s disposal, including Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski and even running back Leonard Fournette, the Buccaneers offense should find success in moving the ball down, despite facing a Buffalo Bills defense ranked first in DVOA.
Proceed with Caution
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
With a 42.5-point total, the Week 14 matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens looks to have the personality of a classic AFC North showdown. Both Baltimore and Cleveland rank as two of the slowest teams in the league (28th and 26th respectively), and both feature a more run-focused play-calling scheme, with Baltimore calling the fourth-most run plays (45%) and Cleveland, the third-highest (47%).
Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens offense face a Browns defense ranked 16th in DVOA and 13th in defending the run. Although Jackson has tremendous upside as a dual-threat option, as the team-leader in carries, seeing 37% of the work in the backfield, he may have difficulty moving the ball on the ground.
Conversely, Baltimore ranks fifth in rush DVOA, creating problems for star running back Nick Chubb. Chubb, who is averaging 5.78 yards per carry, had a less than ideal outing in a Week 12, 16-10 loss, rushing for 16 yards on eight carries, averaging two yards per carry. The 12th-ranked Browns’ offense may need to rely on quarterback Baker Mayfield and a receiving corps of Jarvis Laundry, Donovan Peoples-Jones and tight end David Njoku to help kickstart the offense what looks to be a very ugly matchup.
