NFL Week 12 features a 10-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays at each position using the FantasyLabs Tools.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups, or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Quarterback
Stud
Justin Herbert is coming off one of his best outings of the season last week against the Steelers. He racked up 382 passing yards and three touchdowns to go along with 90 rushing yards. He finished with 38.28 DraftKings points, and he’s scored at least 34.64 in two of his past three games.
Herbert draws a solid matchup this week against the Broncos. They rank 17th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and there are reasons to believe they’ll be worse in that department down the stretch. They traded away an impact defender in Von Miller, and they allowed 30 points and 386 yards in their last outing.
Herbert stands out as one of the best values at the position in our NFL Models, ranking third in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and second on FanDuel.
Values
Quarterback is a great position to spend down this week, particularly on FanDuel.
Cam Newton might be the best. He wasted little time making an impact for the Panthers, finishing with 26.16 DraftKings points in his first start. He remains a dangerous option with his legs, tallying 46 rushing yards and a touchdown on 10 carries last week.
That rushing upside is particularly appealing. Quarterbacks who average at least 30 rushing yards per game have historically averaged 20.66 DraftKings points (per the Trends tool). That kind of production would be more than welcome at $5,600 on DraftKings.
Tyrod Taylor is even cheaper than Newton, and he checks a lot of the same boxes. He’s also capable of picking up some fantasy points with his legs, and he trails only Newton in terms of projected Plus/Minus at quarterback on DraftKings.
Taylor also benefits from an elite matchup against the Jets, who have been an atrocity on defense. They’ve allowed the most points and yards per game this season, so they unsurprisingly rank dead last in defensive DVOA. Taylor owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.3 in our NFL Models, which is the top mark at the position.
Quick Hits
Tom Brady has been as good as ever this season, leading the league in passing touchdowns and yards per game. That has obviously correlated to fantasy success, with Brady ranking second at the position in terms of fantasy points per game. The Buccaneers rank first on the slate with an implied team total of 28.0 points, and Brady’s $8,200 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. He’s an elite option on that site.
Jalen Hurts racked up 30.78 DraftKings points in his game, and he remains affordable at just $7,300 vs. the Giants. Billy Ward breaks down Hurts in this week’s Quarterback Breakdown.
Matt Stafford and Aaron Rodgers are squaring off against each other in what is expected to be a competitive contest. Neither player is expected to garner much ownership, so both players have some appeal in this matchup.
Running Back
Stud
Christian McCaffrey has wasted little time reacclimating himself to the Panthers’ offense following a stay on the IR. He’s scored at least 24.9 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, thanks to his insane receiving workload out of the backfield. He’s racked up 17 catches on 18 targets over that time frame, which gives him a massive floor and ceiling on a weekly basis. Unsurprisingly, he leads all running backs in floor and median projections in our NFL Models.
He’s in an interesting spot this week vs. the Dolphins. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.5 on DraftKings, and the Dolphins do rank 13th in rush defense DVOA. That said, they’ve been mediocre at defending running backs in the passing game, which is where McCaffrey makes his money. He’s as matchup-proof as it gets, and this is clearly a good price tag for him: McCaffrey has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.22 with a comparable salary.
Value
We’re still waiting on some vital information on this slate. Aaron Jones is questionable with a knee injury, and he was able to get in a limited practice on Friday. That puts him on track to suit up following a one-game absence.
However, if he’s ruled out, A.J. Dillon would become one of the best values at the position. He racked up 53 rushing yards on 11 carries in relief of Jones last week, and more importantly, he caught all six of his targets for 44 yards. He finished with 15.7 DraftKings points, and he’s ultimately averaged 21.13 DraftKings points in three games with at least 30 snaps.
If Jones is in, Darrell Henderson stands out on the other side of that matchup. He’s an elite value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 97%, and he’s been a consistent source of value all year. He’s been in a slump recently, scoring 9.4 DraftKings points or fewer in three of his past four matchups, but he’s scored at least 15.7 DraftKings points in every other contest this year. The Packers rank just 26th in rush defense DVOA, so this is the perfect spot for Henderson to get right.
Quick Hits
There are plenty of other running backs to choose from on this slate, but Dontrell Hilliard might be the most unique. He’s essentially a receiver that’s listed at the running back position, and he has the potential to be very busy for the Titans. He finished with 10 targets last week, and that was with A.J. Brown in the lineup.
The Jets are an interesting team to target this week. They’ll be without Michael Carter, which allows Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson to see an uptick in volume vs. the Texans. They’ve been mediocre in terms of rush defense this season, ranking just 23rd in rush defense DVOA. Of the two, Johnson stands out as the preferred target given his ability as a pass-catcher out of the backfield.
Austin Ekeler is coming off a huge game last week, and he has another strong matchup this week vs. the Broncos. Should you go right back to him? Billy Ward makes the case in this week’s Running Back Breakdown.
Dalvin Cook stands out as an excellent value at just $8,100 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97%. He owns a tough matchup vs. the 49ers, but Cook has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.13 with a comparable salary.
Finally, don’t forget about the midrange running backs on DraftKings. Guys like James Robinson, Saquon Barkley, and Elijah Mitchell are popping as some of the best points-per-dollar plays at the position.
Wide Receiver
Stud
The top tier at wide receiver all stands out as extremely underpriced on FanDuel. The four highest-priced options at the position – Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, and Deebo Samuel – each owns a Bargain Rating of at least 98%.
Of the group, Samuel stands out as my preferred option. He’s been an absolute volume hog for the 49ers this season, racking up 30% of their targets and 32% of their air yards. Overall, he’s averaged just under 100 receiving yards and 5.5 receptions per game.
However, what really separates Samuel from his counterparts is his rushing ability. Samuel has become a legit weapon out of the 49ers’ backfield. He’s not simply a wide receiver who occasionally gets an end-around, he’s lining up and getting carries as a bonafide running back. He’s had at least five carries in back-to-back weeks, and he’s scored a rushing touchdown in both contests.
That said, it would be hard to argue against Adams as the top stud option if Jones is ruled out. Adams wasn’t the target hog most expected last week — he racked up just eight against the Vikings — but that didn’t stop him from finishing with seven grabs for 115 yards and two touchdowns. Overall, Adams’ body of work in games without Jones since 2019 is extremely impressive, averaging an insane 33.8 DraftKings points per game. I’ll gladly take that kind of production at his current price tag across the industry.
Value
There are plenty of candidates for this award, but Laviska Shenault has been among the most disappointing players in fantasy this season. He was expected to take a step forward in his second season, but he has struggled to find consistent snaps and targets in the Jaguars’ offense. Even an injury to D.J. Chark hasn’t helped him stay relevant recently.
Shenault will get one more opportunity to disappoint the fantasy community. Jamal Agnew suffered a season-ending injury last week, so the Jaguars really have no choice but to play Shenault at a significant number of snaps. He also owns an excellent matchup vs. the Falcons, who rank just 29th in pass defense DVOA.
Overall, he leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, making him a prime source of savings at just $4,400.
Quick Hits
Michael Pittman is coming off a subpar performance last week, but that tends to happen when one of your teammates scores five touchdowns. Assuming that Jonathan Taylor comes back to reality this week, Pittman should be able to pick up the slack. He’s blossomed into the Colts’ clear top receiver this season, racking up 23% of their targets and 31% of their air yards. Pittman’s salary has decreased by -$700 from its peak on DraftKings, making him a prime buy-low target.
Diontae Johnson quietly has one of the largest target shares in the league. He’s racked up at least 13 targets in back-to-back weeks, and he finished with 26.1 DraftKings points last week vs. the Chargers. He’s underpriced across the industry.
Brandin Cooks is another receiver who is underpriced relative to his workload. He dominates the Texans’ pass-catchers in terms of targets and air yards, and things are finally breaking right for him. Not only will he benefit from having Taylor back in the lineup, but he also draws a juicy matchup vs. the Jets.
Keenan Allen is another receiver who grades out well in our models this week, and Billy Ward breaks him down in-depth in this week’s Wide Receiver Breakdown.
Tight End
Stud
This doesn’t seem like a week where you need to pay up at tight end, especially with Travis Kelce not available on the main slate.
However, Kyle Pitts is the clear top option if you do choose to splurge. He struggled last week against the Patriots, but Bill Belichick is notorious for taking away the opposing team’s top targets. He shouldn’t have the same issues this week against the Jaguars, who rank 30th in DVOA against opposing tight ends this year. Pitts should continue to see an increased workload with Calvin Ridley out of the lineup, and he has one of the top ceilings at the position.
Paying up for Pitts makes plenty of sense on FanDuel, where his $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Value
Rob Gronkowski returned to the Bucs lineup in Week 11, and he showed no signs of rust. He racked up eight targets on 46 snaps and ultimately finished with six catches for 71 yards. Gronkowski has been highly involved when he’s been able to suit up this season, scoring at least 9.5 DraftKings points in each of his four full games.
He stands out as a massive value at just $4,400 on DraftKings. He leads the position in terms of projected Plus/Minus, and he also owns the third-highest ceiling projection. That’s a nice combination.
Quick Hits
Dan Arnold is another player who could see a boost in targets this week for the Jaguars. He’s coming off his worst game with the team last week, finishing with zero targets, but that game is clearly a major outlier. He had recorded at least seven targets in each of his previous three games, and he scored at least 10.0 DraftKings points in each of those contests.
George Kittle is another option to consider paying up for on FanDuel. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, despite the fact that the 49ers haven’t been forced to throw the ball very often. They might need to pass a bit more in what’s expected to be a competitive game vs. the Vikings.
Dallas Goedert got paid recently, and he leads all tight ends with a 28% target share since Zach Ertz was traded to the Cardinals. Billy Ward makes the case for Goedert in this week’s Tight End Breakdown.
Roster Construction
This is another week where you should have plenty of flexibility on DraftKings to explore a few different forms of lineup construction.
The first player I’m locking into my cash game lineups is Gronkowski, who is simply too good of a bargain to pass up. I also like using Hilliard at one of the running back spots and Shenault at receiver. Those three players lead their respective positions in terms of projected Plus/Minus, and we can get all three for a total of $13,400.
After that, my next move is locking in McCaffrey. There are better running backs available on a points-per-dollar basis, but I simply love the combination of floor and ceiling that McCaffrey provides on DraftKings. On a week with plenty of value, he’s very hard to pass up.
If you go with either Newton or Taylor at quarterback, that leaves you plenty of salary cap space for your final two receivers and your flex.
Lineup construction on FanDuel is very different. Guys like Adams, Cook, Allen, Myles Gaskin, and Leonard Fournette all see a bump in value on that site, where each player owns an excellent Bargain Rating. All five of those players are in the optimal lineup when building by projected points in our NFL Models.
As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do ownership projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments.
Ryan Hodge, Justin Bailey, and Mike Randle do a great job of identifying some high upside GPP targets in their Concise Convictions, Small-Field GPP Strategy, and Top Stacks articles. Chris Raybon also breaks down all the targets on a game-by-game basis in his excellent weekly breakdown.
Good luck this week!
