In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections, player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models
There are four wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, and Ryan Hodge have constructed, as well as our proprietary Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Here’s where they place within our Week 11 Fantasy Rankings (as of Tuesday evening):
- Davante Adams (1st)
- AJ Brown (5th)
- Tee Higgins (19th)
- Jaylen Waddle (21st)
We’ll discuss why these four are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers in potential high-scoring games.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
- Quarterbacks on Tuesday
- Tight Ends on Thursday
- Running Backs on Friday
For more in-depth NFL analysis, check out The Action Network.
Top Model Wide Receivers
Davante Adams ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings (49.5 total)
Adams is once again the top option in raw projections in our DraftKings and FanDuel Models this week. He’s also the most expensive receiver on DraftKings, while he’s $100 cheaper than Tyreek Hill on FanDuel. This logically makes him a better choice on FanDuel, where he leads our Cash Game and Tournament models. He’s still solid on DraftKings, though; he leads our Tournament Models there as well. Of course, Ownership Projections play a large part in our Tournament Models. Since those aren’t available at the time of this writing, that may change later in the week.
We all know that (and why) Adams is such a strong play on a weekly basis. No player so thoroughly dominated his team’s target share the way Adams does. He also has a deeper average depth of target (aDOT) than the two players (Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel) closest to him. Not only does Adams get a ton of targets, but they’re of a high-value variety.
Minnesota is a reasonably strong passing defense, but that doesn’t really matter for Adams. The only thing that seems to have a major impact on his production is his quarterback. Adams has a pair of down games (by his standards) with Aaron Rodgers out and then seemingly rusty the past two weeks. Rodgers had his worst game of the season by most metrics last week, excluding Week 1. It could also be argued that Rodgers was rusty that week, having held out through most of training camp. There certainly seems to be a trend with Rodgers and momentum.
Rodgers should bounce back this week, meaning Adams will too. The only knocks on playing Adams this week are of a strategic variety. With limited cheap options at both receiver and running back, finding the salary to pay for the slate’s (second) highest priced wideout is a bit of a challenge. We’ll dig into that more later.
Despite his salary, Adams is tied for the lead in Pts/Sal on FanDuel, and in second on DraftKings. He’s a solid play regardless of contest type.
AJ Brown ($7,700 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): Tennessee Titans (-2.5) vs. Houston Texans (44.5 total)
Like Adams, Brown is underpriced on FanDuel relative to DraftKings. The difference is more extreme with Brown though, who’s the sixth-most expensive DraftKings wide receiver, but ranks 11th on FanDuel. This is fortuitous, as Brown profiles as a better FanDuel play anyway.
As we know (and mention frequently), FanDuel is half-ppr scoring and has no 100-yard bonus scoring. That makes yardage in general and especially touchdowns far more valuable there. (To elaborate, since overall scoring for receivers is lower, but yardage and touchdown points remain the same, they constitute a higher percentage of a player’s output on FanDuel than DraftKings).
Prior to this season, Brown has been the ultimate yards and touchdowns receiver. In his first two years, he averaged 17.42 yards per catch and scored 19 touchdowns in 30 games. That would rank him fifth in yards per reception and top 10 in touchdowns this season. He’s regressed in both areas, but I don’t think that will continue.
First, at just 24 years old, it’s unlikely his abilities have suffered. Second, while only missing one full game, Brown was playing hurt for much of the season. He seems to be getting healthier, though, turning in some full practices last week. Finally, he’s taking on a Houston defense that has allowed the third-highest yards per completion on the year this season.
Brown’s role and price both stand out on FanDuel this week. He leads all three of our Pro’s personal models there for Week 11.
Tee Higgins ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (50 total)
Higgins leads two of our Pro Models on DraftKings this week, where he’s seemingly always in play due to his targets far exceeding his price. While teammate Ja’Marr Chase gets most of the attention, it’s Higgins who leads the Bengals in targets per game on the season.
Higgins is the inverse of Brown this week in that his role and his value are both better on DraftKings. He’s yet to top 100 yards receiving or have a multi-touchdown game but has only one game under 10 DraftKings points. (That came in a blowout win against the Lions in which Joe Burrow threw only 29 passes).
Higgins has a solid weekly floor, which should only be higher this week in what Vegas Lines expect to be a close game. We’ve also seen an uptick in the Bengals’ passing volume as of late. They’ve attempted just over 37 passes per game over the past three weeks. Prior to that, they averaged 27. Much of that increase has gone to Chase, but Higgin’s price-considered role is still very strong.
While Higgins hasn’t topped 17 DraftKings points in a game yet this year, there’s certainly room for a ceiling game at some point. He has a reasonable aDOT of 11.42 — higher than players like Davante Adams and Mike Williams. There have been some near-misses, including a 97-yard game (just shy of the bonus) and a would-be touchdown where he was tackled at roughly the two-yard line that would’ve drastically changed his day.
Higgins projects as the slate’s best Pts/Sal play on DraftKings this week, which works nicely in cash games. He also has a lot of unrealized ceiling potential, which keeps him in the tournament conversation.
Jaylen Waddle ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (-3) at New York Jets (45 total)
While Higgins projects slightly better, our DraftKings Cash Game Model prefers Waddle this week. While it’s certainly viable to play them both in cash games (based on my early builds optimal), I slightly prefer Waddle as well.
Much of that comes down to my optimism on Tua Tagovailoa, whom I wrote about in the Quarterbacks Breakdown. I have high expectations for Miami’s passing offense in this spot, and Waddle should lead the charge. The Dolphins will be without DeVante Parker again, and while Will Fuller is slated to return, we say that seemingly every week. Even if he does return, Waddle out-targeted Fuller 17 to 8 with Fuller active.
Waddle has been excellent with Tua throwing him the ball this season. In four full Tua games, Waddle is averaging over 17 DraftKings points per contest. The college teammates seem to have a strong connection, with Waddle drawing more than twice as many targets as any other wide receiver in Tagovailoa’s starts.
It’s also an excellent matchup this week with the Jets. The Jets rank dead last in DVOA against the pass this season. Waddle seems to be fairly matchup sensitive, so this is important. His worst game of the year (counting Tua starts only) came against Buffalo’s top-ranked defense. The last time he faced a defense (almost) as bad as the Jets? He scored a career-high 29 DraftKings points against Jacksonville (who ranks 31st in overall defense and passing defense, one spot ahead of the Jets in both categories).
Waddle is a great cash game play this week, with some outside tournament appeal on DraftKings. He trails only Higgins as the leader in Pts/Sal there this week.
Other Wide Receivers With Week-Winning Upside
Tyreek Hill ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (56 total)
Patrick Mahomes’s top option in the game with the slate’s highest total? Yes, please. Hill is second in the NFL (behind only Cooper Kupp) in targets on the season, with over 11 per game. With this game projecting as a shootout, that’s a very good thing for Hill.
Interestingly, Hill has a career-low aDOT this season. However, that seems to have come from the addition of some short-area looks rather than the subtraction of deep balls. His receptions per game are easily a career-high, with him catching 2.7 more balls per game than his next-best season.
Due to the depth of his targets, Hill was historically very boom-or-bust. This year though, his floor is much higher thanks to the extra catches. The ceiling is still there, though, with two games over 40 DraftKings points on the season and one of those over 50. Hill is a better deal on FanDuel, but with his slate-breaking upside, he needs to be considered on both sites.
Cowboys Receivers (+2.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (56 total):
CeeDee Lamb ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
Amari Cooper ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
Michael Gallup ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel)
The counterparties to the Hill thesis are the Cowboys receivers. It’s (again) a three-man operation, with Gallup returning from the IR last week and immediately drawing five targets. Lamb had seven last week, with Cooper seeing four.
The return of Gallup will likely have a more negative impact on Cooper. Both players primarily lined up outside last week. Lamb was used more in the slot than out wide for the first time this season, which could be a boost to him.
It’s exceedingly difficult to pick who (if any) of the Cowboys’ receivers will have the big game when they’re all healthy. It’s likely that there will be a lot of fantasy points to go around, but the distribution of them could mean none of the trio post “have to have it” scores. However, I’m building Cowboys stacks around Lamb. He’s been more effective working out of the slot and has that role mostly to himself. Then, add either Cooper or Gallup, but not both. Those two are in direct competition with similar route trees.
This is all based on both a small sample size and some heavy conjecture, so it could be way off. What I am confident in, though, is that playing all three together isn’t ideal. All three are better bargains on FanDuel than DraftKings this week but should be strongly considered on both sites.
Ja’Marr Chase ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (50 total)
We touched heavily on Chase in the Higgins entry, but he deserves one of his own this week. While Higgins has more targets per game on the season, Chase has flipped that in recent weeks. Since Week 8, Chase has 22 targets to Higgins’ 14. Interestingly, Higgins has the deeper aDOT during that span, too (also a reversal of their prior roles). It could be nothing, but Chase needs those deep passes to pay off at his high salary. He’s fourth in Ceiling Projection on both sites this week.
Stefon Diggs ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-7) vs. Indianapolis Colts (50 total)
Diggs finally looked like himself last week, posting his first 20-point FanDuel performance of the year against the lowly Jets. The Colts are nowhere near as bad of a defense, but it’s still an encouraging sign. What the Colts defense is, though, is an extreme pass funnel. They have the league’s second-best run defense while ranking bottom-10 against the pass. This could improve both efficiency and volume for Diggs. Sean McDermott has shown a willingness to buck convention and throw the ball late into games with a big lead in the past.
Midrange Value Wide Receivers
Barring any impactful late-week news, the bottom of the price range is fairly barren in terms of receiver value. For cash games, in particular, going with two or three receivers with moderate prices instead of a stars and scrubs approach is projecting to be the better option this week.
Five of the six best receivers in Pts/Sal this week cost between $4,8000 and $6,000 on DraftKings. As usual, this is mostly DraftKings specific, as pricing is tighter there.
Here are a few players to consider who fit that bill (in addition to Waddle and Higgins):
Jarvis Landry ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel): Cleveland Browns (-10) vs. Detroit Lions (45 total)
I’ve been very ant-Landry as of late, going as far as to set a “no Landry” rule in our Lineup Optimizer last week. With all of Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and Odell Beckham Jr. missing from the lineup, it was just too easy for defenses to key in on the Browns’ most talented remaining playmaker (and I’m not sure he’s all that talented).
However, this week is shaking out a bit differently. First, the terrible Lions defense can key in on whomever they want, but it probably doesn’t make much of a difference. Second, some combination of Chubb and Hunt are likely to be back on the field this week. That should force the Lions to load up to stop the run (and devote more passing game attention to Hunt in particular).
Landry’s Browns are implied for almost four touchdowns; if the game shakes out that way, his production should be fine this week.
Tyler Lockett ($6,000 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals (49.5 total)
Lockett is on the borderline of being a “value” play this week. His salary is creeping up close to the higher-end guys that offer a far better floor and ceiling than Lockett. However, Lockett is a great deal if Russell Wilson is at full strength this week.
In Wilson’s five games prior to his finger injury, Lockett averaged 17.6 DraftKings points. The risk of Russ (who looked terrible last week) still not being at full effectiveness is a bit high for me here — which will keep Lockett off my cash game rosters. However, if much of the field is thinking that way, Lockett could make a lot of sense for tournaments.
Tyler Boyd ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (50 total)
Boyd is sixth on the slate (and second on the Bengals) in Pts/Sal on DraftKings this week. From a strategy standpoint, playing Boyd only really makes sense if the $600 savings from Higgins is impactful to your roster. Higgins is averaging a little more than two extra targets per contest and a higher yards per target rate.
Not that Boyd is a bad play, I’m just not sure what type of build he fits on this week, given the strength of his teammates. You probably don’t want to play both Boyd and Higgins together in cash games — the systemic risk of the Bengals offense floundering is scary when they take up most of your wide receiver slots.
If you felt that strongly about both of them being solid plays, it makes more sense to simply roster Burrow anyway. For tournaments, I’d pair Burrow stacks with “Chase +1,” with that extra option being any of Higgins/Boyd/CJ Uzomah.
