NFL Week 11 features a 12-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays at each position using the FantasyLabs Tools.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups, or are Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Quarterback
Stud
The game between the Cowboys and Chiefs stands out as the clear top target of the week. The total on that game sits at 56.5 points, and no other game has a total above 50.5. The Chiefs are also listed as just 2.5-point favorites, so this game is also expected to be a back-and-forth affair. That’s extremely appealing for fantasy purposes.
Both quarterbacks should draw plenty of attention, but Patrick Mahomes gets a slight edge in our NFL Models. He leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, even though his matchup vs. the Cowboys isn’t ideal. The Cowboys rank third in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and Mahomes owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.4.
Still, Mahomes stands out from a Vegas perspective. The Chiefs’ implied team total of 29.5 ranks second on the slate, and Mahomes has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.67 with a comparable implied team total (per the Trends tool). Home favorites have also historically provided more value than quarterbacks in any other split.
Value
Cam Newton will make his first start of the year, and he has the potential to be a massive value on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $5,100, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and Newton still has the ideal skillset for a fantasy quarterback. He remains a threat with his legs, averaging 39.5 rushing yards per game in 15 starts last season. He’s also one of the biggest red zone threats in the league, rushing for 13 scores last year. He also scored one rushing touchdown in limited action last week.
Newton also benefits from an excellent matchup vs. the Football Team. They rank just 29th in pass defense DVOA, and they lost one of their best defensive players last week in Chase Young.
Quick Hits
Lamar Jackson is coming off one of his worst performances of the year last week vs. the Dolphins, but he still possesses arguably the top ceiling at the quarterback position. He leads all signal-callers in Ceiling Projection in Week 11, and his $8,400 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Could Josh Allen be a bit overlooked this week? It’s possible. He’s currently projected for just 7.5% ownership on DraftKings, but he owns the second-highest ceiling projection on the slate. Billy Ward breaks down Allen further in this week’s Quarterback Breakdown.
Jalen Hurts is another quarterback who is capable of providing elite production with his legs. His average of 0.38 DraftKings points per snap trails only Jackson and Allen at the position, yet he’s priced as just the seventh-most expensive quarterback. He has a positive leverage score in our NFL Models, making him an interesting tournament option.
Running Back
Stud
This doesn’t seem like a week where you need to pay up for one of the stud running backs. There are plenty of strong options in the mid-tier, who should command most of the ownership.
If you do want to go with a more contrarian approach, Dalvin Cook stands out as an excellent pivot on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $8,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and he owns the second-highest ceiling projection at the position. He remains one of the biggest workhorses in the league, and he racked up 24 carries and five targets last week vs. the Chargers.
Cook draws an excellent matchup this week vs. the Packers. They rank just 24th in rush defense DVOA, and they’re also below-average in pass defense DVOA vs. running backs. Add it all up, and Cook owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.1 on FanDuel.
Value
Jeff Wilson stands out as the best of the value running back options this week. The 49ers are expected to be without Elijah Mitchell this week, and Wilson figures to be the biggest beneficiary. He served as the 49ers’ backup RB last week, logging 10 rushing attempts on just 22 snaps. The 49ers employed a run-first strategy last week vs. the Rams – they had 42 carries and just 19 pass attempts – so their primary running back is going to carry plenty of fantasy value.
Wilson is also in a solid spot vs. the Jaguars. They’ve actually been pretty good against opposing running backs this season, ranking seventh in rush defense DVOA, but Wilson should benefit from an elite gamescript. The 49ers are listed as 6.5-point road favorites, so he should garner plenty of rushing attempts in this matchup. If the 49ers can run the ball 42 times as underdogs vs. the Rams, they could easily reach that threshold again as large favorites.
Quick Hits
A.J. Dillon is another elite option at the position. Aaron Jones is expected to miss around two weeks with an MCL injury, and Dillon has historically thrived with extra playing time. He’s logged at least 20 snaps in seven career games, and he’s averaged 14.3 DraftKings points in those contests. In the two games where he’s seen at least 30 snaps, he’s upped his scoring average to 26.85 DraftKings points. He should be able to hit 30 snaps pretty easily this week, and he owns a great matchup vs. the Vikings. Overall, there’s nothing not to like here.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is expected to miss another game for the Chiefs, so Darrel Williams should continue to see a boost in value. He’s lost a few carries to Derrick Gore recently, but he’s made up for it with his work in the passing game. He’s logged at least four targets in six straight games, and he’s coming off a massive 32.4 DraftKings points in his last outing.
D’Onta Foreman is another potential value option, particularly on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 95%. The Titans will be without Jeremy McNichols, which opens up a few additional snaps at the position. Foreman has also been much more productive than Adrian Peterson, so he could continue to earn more carries at the expense of the aging veteran.
Don’t forget about James Conner. He exploded for more than 40 DraftKings points two weeks ago, and he followed that up with 15.4 DraftKings points last week vs. the Panthers. He’s fairly priced across the industry, especially if Kyler Murray is able to return to the lineup.
Nick Chubb is another potential option if you’re looking to pay up at the position in tournaments. Billy Ward highlights Chubb in this week’s Running Back Breakdown.
Wide Receiver
Stud
Davante Adams has been a bit quiet recently, but it hasn’t been due to a lack of opportunities. He’s racked up at least 11 targets in back-to-back games, and his average of 10.9 targets per game ranks third in the league.
Adams has a chance to be even busier this Sunday. He’s played two games without Aaron Jones since the start of the 2019-20 season, and he’s been an absolute monster in those contests. He’s averaged 14 targets per game, and he’s parlayed that into an average of 10 catches for 124.5 yards with five touchdowns. Overall, he’s averaged 38.95 DraftKings points in those two contests. We obviously shouldn’t expect 40 DraftKings points vs. the Vikings, but it is within Adams’ range of outcomes.
Adams stands out as one of the best values of the week as well. He ranks third at the position in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, and he’s tops in the department on FanDuel. Adams owns a Bargain Rating of 98% on FanDuel, so he’s a very tough fade on that site.
Value
The Cowboys’ passing attack will be missing Amari Cooper on Sunday, which is going to open up some additional opportunities for the rest of the roster. CeeDee Lamb should be the primary beneficiary, but Michael Gallup might be the better pure value. He had five targets in his return to the lineup last week, and he should see a sizable bump in snaps in Week 11. He played on just 53% of the team’s offensive snaps last week, but I would expect that figure to get much closer to 100% vs. the Chiefs.
The Chiefs also stand out as an excellent matchup. Their defense has improved recently, but they still rank just 27th in pass defense DVOA.
Ultimately, Gallup looks like a prime source of savings for cash games at just $4,200 on DraftKings.
Quick Hits
Jaylen Waddle has quietly been an excellent source of fantasy value recently:
Over the last 5 weeks, Jaylen Waddle ranks …
* 3rd in targets
* 7th in air yards
* 8th in PPR points— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 19, 2021
He remains fairly priced across the industry, and he gets a dream matchup this week vs. the Jets. They rank dead last in pass defense DVOA, so fire Waddle up with confidence.
The game between the Raiders and Bengals has some sneaky shootout potential. Tee Higgins is expected to be a popular target — Billy Ward breaks down why in this week’s Wide Receiver Breakdown — but Hunter Renfrow might be the strong option. He racked up nine targets last week, and he finished with 17.6 DraftKings points. Renfrow has scored double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season, so he’s an incredibly consistent producer.
A.J. Brown is coming off a disappointing performance last week, but he still figures to see a bump in production with Julio Jones on the IR. He’s an elite option at just $7,200 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 99%.
Tight End
Stud
Paying up at tight end is never easy, especially on DraftKings. Travis Kelce is the clear top option if you’re spending up at the position, but he owns a Bargain Rating of just 1% on DraftKings. That makes him tough to squeeze in.
Still, fitting Kelce in your lineup is always a good idea when you can. He gives you the highest ceiling and the safest floor at the position, and he’s scored at least 17.7 DraftKings points in seven of 10 games.
Kelce draws an excellent matchup this week vs. the Cowboys. Even their pass defense has been excellent in general this season, they have struggled against opposing tight ends. They rank merely 24th in DVOA vs. the position, so Kelce could put together a big week.
Value
If you’re spending down at the position, Cole Kmet stands out as your best bet. He leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, and he ranks fourth in that department on FanDuel.
Kmet’s fantasy performances have been held back by Justin Fields this season, but Fields has shown a bit of progression recently. Kmet has seen at least six targets in three straight games, including a season-high eight targets in his last contest. He finished with 14.7 DraftKings points in that game, and the Ravens represent a decent matchup.
Kmet stands out as a particularly nice value on DraftKings, where his $3,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%.
Quick Hits
Dawson Knox returned to the Bills’ lineup last week, and while he finished with just one target, he did play on 84% of the snaps. He draws one of the best possible matchups this week vs. the Colts, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.0 on DraftKings.
Zach Ertz could be the preferred option if you’re spending down on FanDuel. His $5,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%, and his nine Pro Trends trail only Kelce at the position. However, he would really only be in play if Murray returns to the lineup.
What about Mark Andrews, George Kittle, and Darren Waller? Billy Ward makes the case for all three in this week’s Tight End Breakdown.
Roster Construction
Things actually come together pretty easily this week. You should start by locking in three midrange or value options at the running back position. On DraftKings, Dillon and Wilson should grab two of those spots, and Mark Ingram ($5,400) is a great choice for the third. Ingram served as a workhorse last week with Alvin Kamara out of the lineup, racking up 14 carries and seven targets.
After that, my next move is locking in Adams. Even though he’s not the same value on DraftKings that he is on FanDuel, he’s still a priority option. He stands out as one of the strongest values at the position, and his ceiling is astronomical. If he goes for 40+, you might be drawing dead without him.
You can also jam in Kelce if you want, but I’d rather go with a more balanced approach. Using Gallup at wide receiver will easily allow you to pay up for Mahomes, and you should still have plenty of flexibility with the rest of your roster.
Things are even easier on FanDuel, where it’s almost hard to spend the full salary cap. If you go with the same trio at running back, you can easily jam Adams, Kelce, and Brown into your lineup. You’ll also still have more than enough room for whatever quarterback you desire, especially if you also go with Gallup.
As far as GPPs, you can utilize our NFL Models to identify some potentially overlooked targets. We do ownership projections for every player, and our Leverage Rating compares those projected ownerships to each player’s projected ceiling. If a player has a high ceiling but low projected ownership, they will have a strong Leverage Rating. Those types of players are ideal in tournaments.
Ryan Hodge, Justin Bailey, and Mike Randle do a great job of identifying some high upside GPP targets in their Concise Convictions, Small-Field GPP Strategy, and Top Stacks articles.
Good luck this week!
