NFL Week 10 features an 11-game main slate starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays at each position using the FantasyLabs Tools.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Quarterback
Stud
Josh Allen let everyone down as the chalk last week, being held without a touchdown for the first time this season. However, he projects extremely well again this week, in a remarkably similar situation. The Jets are now the league’s 32nd-ranked defense by DVOA. Allen and the Bills are also, again, heavily favored at -13.
It seems likeliest that last week was just a bad day for Allen and the Bills offense, who should be motivated to get the bad taste out of their collective mouths in a solid Week 10 matchup. Allen is the highest-projected quarterback on both DraftKings and FanDuel in our NFL Models.
Tom Brady also stands out this week, particularly on DraftKings. We have his Ownership Projection lower there, which has him atop our new Minimalist Tournament Model. It’s a great matchup for Brady, as Washington is allowing an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.5 on DraftKings. That’s the best mark in our models for Week 10.
Brady and the Bucs throw the ball at a higher rate than any other NFL team this year, despite a 6-2 record. This is notable, as generally, teams run the ball more often when leading games (the teams ranked 2-4 in pass-play rate have a combined four wins between them).
This gives Brady a solid ceiling even when playing as a large favorite — as he is this week at -9.5. Brady is without Antonio Brown again this week, but that hasn’t slowed him down so far. However, if Chris Godwin (game-time decision) is inactive, playing Brady gets a bit thinner.
Value
Taylor Heinicke stands out as a value play this week, particularly on DraftKings, where he has a slate-leading 3.5 Pts/Sal. Washington is taking on Tampa Bay, who is seeing a league-high 68% opponent pass-play rate. In fact, the only team that throws the ball more than the Bucs is whomever they’re playing that week.
While Tampa’s defense isn’t bad against the pass (10th in DVOA), the extreme volume they face produces a lot of fantasy production. Thrice this year, they’ve allowed opposing signal-callers to score at least 26 points. Heinicke is only $5,400 on DraftKings and offers moderate rushing upside as well. If paying down at quarterback this week, he’s the best option.
Quick Hits
Dak Prescott will be looking to right the ship in Dallas after a disastrous performance in Week 9. The Cowboys failed to score a single point for the first 55 minutes of the contest before adding two garbage-time scores. Dak is one of three quarterbacks (along with Brady and Allen) with a Vegas total of at least 30 points this week.
The only thing holding Prescott back is the Cowboys’ pass rate, which ranks 26th in the league. If they score early on the ground, the volume from Prescott could be extremely limited. On the other hand, this week is the expected return of receiver Michael Gallup, which will give Prescott his full complement of weaponry for the first time since Week 1. Prescott scored 31.42 DraftKings points that week.
Kyler Murray is a sneaky tournament option this week if he plays. Concerns over his health are expected to severely suppress his ownership, which we currently have projected under 1% on DraftKings. It’s a 4:00 p.m. window game, so we need to have a backup plan if Murray is ruled out. Still, Murray has by far the best Leverage Score in our models this week.
I break down some of the other top passers in this week’s Quarterback Breakdown.
Running Back
Stud
Najee Harris is in an absolute smash spot this week. He already ranks second in targets among running backs on the season, and the Steelers are without both Juju Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool this week. That’s 35% of the team’s target share now vacated.
Besides his passing involvement, Pittsburgh has tried to get Najee involved on the ground as well. It’s been a struggle due to their poor offensive line play, but this week should be better. They’re facing a Lions team that ranks 25th in DVOA against the run and is racing the highest rush-play rate of any team in the NFL.
Harris is seeing more total volume than any (healthy) running back in the NFL this season. This week, he should see a commensurate level of efficiency, making him the top running back option on the slate. He leads in Median and Ceiling Projections in our models.
Value
Unlike last week, we’re awash with value plays at running back this week:
D’Ernest Johnson is the only running back expected to be active for the Browns this week. While we should probably expect a drop in rushing attempts for the team, they run the ball over 30 times per game this season. The vast majority of their runs will go through Johnson, who is only $4,700 on DraftKings in a reasonable matchup with New England. He leads both FanDuel and DraftKings in Pts/Sal this week.
Mark Ingram rejoined the Saints two weeks ago and is now their lead back once again with Alvin Kamara out this week. With starting quarterback Jameis Winston done for the season, the Saints will look to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. That shouldn’t be a problem against the Titans, who have a top 10 pass defense, but rank 24th in rushing DVOA. Ingram trails only Johnson in Pts/Sal on both sites this week.
Quick Hits
Christian McCaffrey is working back to game speed, having played for the first time since Week 3 last week. He was announced before the game to be on a snap count, but I’ve seen no such pronouncement this week. If McCaffrey approaches his pre-injury workload, he’s an absolute steal at $8,400 on DraftKings. There’s no guarantee it happens this week, but I expect him to serve as a workhorse at some point in the near future.
Jonathon Taylor is flying a bit under the radar due to the strength of Najee Harris’ matchup this week. Taylor has seen at least 20 opportunities (targets + carries) the past three games and is taking on Jacksonville’s 27th-ranked overall defense. Taylor is the highest-rated back in our Minimalist Tournament Model on DraftKings this week.
Aaron Jones is taking on a Seahawks team allowing opposing backs a +5.9 Opponent Plus/Minus score on the season. The Packers offense centers around Davante Adams and Jones, with the latter having as high a ceiling as any player on the slate. At only $6,900 on DraftKings, his 40-point upside in a plus matchup makes him worth considering.
I highlight some of the other running backs worth considering in this week’s Running Back Breakdown, including Austin Ekeler.
Wide Receiver
Stud
As mentioned in the Aaron Jones section, the Packers offense flows through Jones and Davante Adams. Adams has a league-leading target share of just under 35% this season and is in a potential shootout with the Seahawks.
Seattle’s defense is fairly tough (11th in DVOA) against the run, but their secondary is an issue. They are allowing the fourth-most passing yard per game in the league this season. Adams has accounted for 37% of the Packers’ passing yards (when active) which adds up to a great projection this week.
Adams is a rare combination of deep-threat upside with a high target floor. He leads the slate in Floor, Median, and Ceiling Projections in our models for Week 10
Diontae Johnson will likely approach Adams level target share this week. With Chase Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster both out, Johnson and Najee Harris are the only Steelers left with a target share over 12% on the year. Against a Detroit team allowing a league-high 8.8 yards per pass attempt (YPA), that’s an extremely good situation for Diontae.
Detroit’s YPA is 0.9 yards higher than the next worst team in Jacksonville. The Jaguars are closer to No. 21 Pittsburgh than they are to Detroit. While the matchup is probably overrated in a general sense, teams that perform much worse than the rest of the league are noteworthy.
Anyway, it’s a smash spot for Johnson. He’s tied with Adams for the best Pts/Sal on both sites this week.
Value
Finding value at receiver is a bit trickier this week. Fortunately, the value at running back makes it less of an imperative than normal. Still, there are a couple of reasonable options.
James Washington is Pittsburgh’s de facto No. 2 receiver this week against Detroit. We’ve covered how solid a matchup that is. He saw three targets last week with only Juju out and should be expected to draw a couple more this week. At only $3,500 on DraftKings, he trails only Adams and Johnson in Pts/Sal.
Tyler Johnson could be in for an expanded role if Chris Godwin (game-time decision) were to miss time this week. He runs a similar moderate-depth route tree as Godwin (Johnson’s average depth of target (aDOT) is 9.55, Godwin’s is 8.3).
With Antonio Brown already out, the Bucs can’t just take deep shots to Mike Evans all game. Johnson has little value if Godwin plays.
Quick Hits
Thanks to the running back value, we can afford more of the higher-priced receivers this week. Let’s examine a few who stand out.
Keenan Allen was targeted 24 times over the past two weeks, with no sign of slowing down this week against Minnesota. He’s the top receiving option for the favorite in a game with a 53 point total, so deserves consideration in all formats.
The Cowboys have a slate-high 31.5 point team total this week, which raises the expectation for Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. They have near-identical production to each other on the season. They can be played together (ideally in stacks with Dak Prescott) or individually this week.
AJ Brown is the centerpiece of the Titans offense with Derrick Henry done for the year. He’s seen 11 targets in each of the past two games. With his deep-ball ability, that’s more than enough looks to post a monster score. Brown is projected for under 6% ownership this week, but the Saints matchup isn’t one to avoid. They’re allowing a +0.6 Opponent Plus/Minus to receivers this year.
For an in-depth look at the wide receiver position this week, check out my Week 10 Wide Receiver Breakdown.
Tight End
Stud
With Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, and Darren Waller all missing from the main slate this week, tight end is fairly empty at the top of the price range.
Kyle Pitts stands out, despite a disappointing pair of performances the past two weeks. Still, Pitts leads all tight ends in percentage of his team’s air yards at 30.5%. That number jumps to over 35% in games without Calvin Ridley. He’s already shown 25-point upside this year, keeping him in weekly consideration.
Dalton Schultz trails only Pitts in Median Projection this week, at an $800 (DraftKings) and $900 (FanDuel) discount this week. There are concerns about his volume with the Cowboys as large favorites and returning Michael Gallup to the lineup.
TJ Hockneson is fourth among tight ends in PPR points this year, and first among those on the Week 10 main slate. At extremely low projected ownership, he leads the Minimalist Tournament model on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Dallas Goedert is priced as if Zach Ertz is still on the team. He’s the fourth-most expensive tight end on both sites. Since Ertz’s departure, Goedert has a target share over 32%. The Eagles haven’t thrown the ball much in that span, but may this week as two-point underdogs in Denver.
Value
Dan Arnold is likely to be the chalk tight end this week, at least on DraftKings. He’s seeing 7.5 targets per game over the past four contests, and is taking on a Colts team with a slate-high +4.1 Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to the position. At only $3,500, he’s the clear leader in Pts/Sal on DraftKings.
Pat Freiermuth is more expensive than Arnold on DraftKings, but the same price on FanDuel. Freiermuth has three touchdowns over the past two weeks. This week, he’s taking on an awful Lions pass defense, and two of the Steelers’ top three receiving options are out. Freiermuth is a must for cash games on FanDuel.
If Albert Okwuegbunam misses Week 10 (currently questionable) Noah Fant is extremely underpriced against an Eagles team that struggles to defend tight ends. Fant and Albert combine for almost 30% of the Broncos targets this season.
Lineup Construction
The lineup construction for cash games is fairly straightforward this week. With two major values at running back, you can fit one of the high-priced options (Harris, Taylor, Elliott) and still have tons of salary on the table. The decision then comes down to paying up at quarterback for Brady or Allen. Going cheap there with Heinicke, or sticking to the mid-range with Prescott or potentially Jalen Hurts is viable as well.
That leaves four pass-catcher spots left. Depending on your quarterback decision, you can comfortably play either two or three of the higher-priced options at receiver (Adams, Johnson, Keenan Allen) or pay up at tight end for Goedert.
Otherwise, Dan Arnold is a solid play for a somewhat-cheap tight end. Filling in the final wide receiver spot is the real question. The cheaper options (Tyler Johnson and James Washington) have significant question marks. Nobody in the mid-range really stands out either. My favorite builds so far have a cheap quarterback and tight end. This allows me to jam in three higher-priced receivers.
In tournaments, pivoting off one or both of the value running backs is likely to be the optimal strategy. With ownership condensing heavily around them, having two higher-priced backs, or one expensive back and four receivers will likely be fairly unique. This also naturally forces some differentiation at receiver, since you won’t be able to fit all of the expensive options without playing Ingram and D’Ernest Johnson at running back.
There’s a lot of expensive backs worth considering this week, and if you’re able to identify two of them, your lineup is in a great spot to take down tournaments. While their individual ownership projections are all fairly moderate, I suspect lineups with two backs over $6,900 in DraftKings salaries will be somewhat unique. That allows you to eat some chalk at other positions while still keeping some leverage on the field if one of Johnson or Ingram fails.
Ryan Hodge, Justin Bailey, and Mike Randle do a great job of identifying some high upside GPP targets in their Concise Convictions, Small-Field GPP Strategy, and Top Stacks articles.
Good luck this week!
